‘Nobody’s vote is guaranteed, no seats belong to any party any more’

CS Lewis Square, an artistic space dedicated to the revered children’s author, is where old east Belfast meets new east Belfast.

Tourists are being dropped off there for a lunchtime stroll as cyclists set off from a charity hub to a connecting urban greenway. Election posters, Union Jacks and loyalist paramilitary flags saturate the lower part of the Newtownards Road leading to the attraction; artisan coffee shops and hipster restaurants dot its upper end.

With just days until the Westminster election, the contest for the Belfast East seat has become one of the most scrutinised by Northern Ireland’s media. It is regarded as a two-horse race between the incumbent, DUP leader Gavin Robinson, and Alliance leader Naomi Long. But it is arguably the toughest of the 18 constituencies to call.

Defeat for Robinson would be catastrophic. Not only would he lose his House of Commons seat but his position as party leader would also be in doubt during a tumultuous period for the DUP, culminating in Jeffrey Donaldson’s departure following historic sex offence charges - charges Donaldson denies.

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But on this stretch of road on the last day of the school term, mother-of-four Vicky Barrett says she has “no interest” in the outcome. “I lived in east Belfast all my life – we’re going hungry and just want fed,” she says. “I don’t care who’s running things or what they’re doing, we want to be able to afford stuff like food and school uniforms.”

Robinson has defeated Long in the last three Westminster elections – albeit by a dramatically reduced margin of just 1,819 in 2019. In 2010, Long made history by toppling the then DUP leader, Peter Robinson.

However, the political landscape and east Belfast’s demography have altered significantly; house prices are rising and new businesses are popping up in a part of the city where an almost exclusively Protestant workforce once staffed the Harland & Wolff shipyard.

[ The election countdown may be on, but it feels as if Northern Ireland is still getting used to it ]

The number of candidates running has more than doubled since 2019, with the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) entering the race for the first time since 2010 – posing a threat to the DUP’s slim majority.

The TUV’s David Vance cost Peter Robinson the election 14 years ago and the fear is that the DUP could once again shed votes, with anti-protocol DUP members switching allegiances to the TUV’s John Ross, an ex-British Army solider.

Finance worker Kimberly Robertson, cutting through CS Lewis Square on her lunch break, thinks it will go to the wire on election night.

Originally from Boston, she came to Northern Ireland more than a decade ago to study at Queen’s University. She is the chair of East Belfast GAA, a club set up during the pandemic that has come to symbolise the area’s diversity.

“I’ve lived here eight years and think that sometimes politicians maybe take east Belfast for granted; they almost feel they’re guaranteed a vote of a particular persuasion but everybody knows that this place has changed so much,” she says.

“I see a lot of gentrification in my own neighbourhood, which is great. I also see a bit of a decline in some of the territorial markings but then again, you have sporadic moments when they do go up.

“But nobody’s vote is guaranteed, no seats belong to any party any more.”

Long, the Stormont Minister for Justice, will be hoping to capitalise on tactical voting, with two progressive parties – the Greens and SDLP – also running candidates compared to the so-called Brexit election in 2019 when just Alliance, the DUP and UUP did. Sinn Féin is not fielding a candidate.

Former BBC Northern Ireland political correspondent Stephen Walker agrees it is “probably the hardest seat in Northern Ireland to call”.

“Naomi is the only person in my opinion who can win it for Alliance but it does come down to the ‘ground war’ – both Alliance and DUP have had loads of supporters out canvassing and knocking doors,” he says.

[ UK general election: Sinn Féin aiming to maximise ‘progressive’ MPs in Northern Ireland ]

Some voters have “flirted with the Alliance” and the UUP before, says Walker, and keeping these on board will be key for Long.

“But Gavin’s supporters will equally rely on his track record – they can say, ‘look, we’ve beaten Naomi before.’ The counterargument is that she’s toppled him once. Both camps are very strong.”

Retired couple Allan and Dorothy Crozier believe tactical voting will be critical in a constituency that they say is unrecognisable since the Troubles. The pair worked in the aircraft industry – one of east Belfast’s biggest employers – and banking for 30 years. Last night they went to a Japanese restaurant on the Newtownards road and have a carrier bag full of craft ales they’ve just bought from a microbrewery.

Allan is “fed up” with elections but will cast his vote on Thursday.

“I think people in this country will vote the way they always have – otherwise ‘the other side’ benefits. We wish there was a single unionist party; we wish they would get their act together and stand as one party. Their basic beliefs are the same.”

For Dorothy, the transformation of east Belfast is important. She is scathing about a UVF so-called “show of strength” last month when 1,500 men lined part of the lower Newtownards Road on a Saturday afternoon.

“They should just go away back and crawl under their stone. This is a very tolerant place now,” she says.

“A long time ago I would have been very unionist, then I went Alliancey and Green; I thought I’ll give them a go because nothing good is happening here and now, it’s almost as if, if you don’t vote for the majority unionist or republican side, it’s going to split it all ... it’s a difficult one.”

Belfast East candidates:

Séamas de Faoite – SDLP

Naomi Long – Alliance

Ryan North – Independent

Gavin Robinson – DUP

John Ross – TUV

Brian Smyth – Greens

Ryan Warren – UUP

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