There is no doubt former minister for finance Michael McGrath will be the Government’s nominee to become Ireland’s next European commissioner. The big question mark is over what job he will have when he gets to Brussels.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has made it clear she wants countries to suggest two nominees, at least one being a woman, for her to choose from when picking a team of commissioners.
She formally said as much in a recent letter to the Government, but the request will have been no surprise. Von der Leyen’s desire to again put together a gender-balanced commission had been privately flagged much earlier.
Ireland is standing firm and has said it will only send one name. While the choice of who to nominate is in the gift of each EU member state, it will be the commission president who decides what job they then get.
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EU commissioners are basically like von der Leyen’s cabinet ministers at EU-level. So you have influential positions like commissioners for trade, competition, economy or the internal market, and then portfolios with less heft, such as the commissioner for oceans and fisheries, or for international partnerships.
The Government has said it is interested in a finance-related role, but so have many other countries. There are a number of things going against Ireland getting what it wants.
Cabinet decided to nominate McGrath as Ireland’s next commissioner back in late June, making us one of the first out of the traps. Several countries have since followed suit and said they will also only put forward one name. If von der Leyen is looking to send a shot across the bows of the capitals by handing one of those countries a lower-rung portfolio, Ireland has positioned itself as the likely fall guy.
A big part of the reason the Government moved early had to do with domestic politics. Under the coalition agreement Fianna Fáil got to pick the commissioner nominee this time. Once they had settled on McGrath, the Government had to get him out of finance with enough time for his replacement, Jack Chambers, to get his feet under the desk to prepare for the budget in October.
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France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and the Czech Republic are some of the others angling for finance or economic commissioner roles. Valdis Dombrovskis, the Latvian commissioner currently in the trade brief, is returning for a third stint and also has his eye on an economic job.
Our current commissioner, Fine Gael’s Mairead McGuinness, is responsible for financial services, but there is a tendency to avoid countries hanging on to the same role again.
It will also not be forgotten that all four of McGrath’s Fianna Fáil party colleagues in the European Parliament voted against von der Leyen in the recent vote to confirm her for a second term. In doing so they broke ranks with Renew, the centrist grouping Fianna Fáil sit within at European level, which backed the commission president.
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People close to the commission president describe her as someone who prizes both competency and loyalty. As a minister for public expenditure and later finance, Mr McGrath has no shortage of competency, having been a safe pair of hands at the heart of Government for several years.
On the loyalty front, the votes of Fianna Fáil’s MEPs and the decision of the Government to go against von der Leyen’s request for two names will be possibly significant marks against him. There will be plenty of blame to go around if Ireland’s next commissioner is given a dud portfolio anyway.
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