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Dáil returns: Febrile, fretful and intensely competitive few weeks lie ahead

With an election on the horizon, politicians are focused on their constituencies and the relentless competition for votes

The 33rd Dáil may be in its final few weeks. Photograph: Maxwell Photography/PA
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy
Tue Sept 17 2024 - 20:24

TDs return to Leinster House on Wednesday for what many expect to be the final few weeks of the 33rd Dáil.

Whenever it comes, the reality is that both parties and individual politicians are in election mode now. That will make the coming term even more febrile, fretful and intensely competitive than the last one. Faced with the prospect of electoral mortality, politicians will be living on their nerves.

It’s possible, though, to envisage a number of themes and questions that will inevitably surface in the coming weeks.

Already debate is dominated by the forthcoming budget. The Government will have a lot of money to spend, and it is already clearly signalling aspects of the great giveaway. There is already fierce competition between the three Government parties to claim credit for aspects of the budget. And although that has the advantage for them of squeezing out the Opposition, it won’t do anything for relations within the Coalition that are looking increasingly frayed. And there’s nearly two weeks of hard negotiations left within Government.

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During that time, watch Sinn Féin seek to elbow itself into the political conversation. That party – and its leader – have endured a difficult year, with pressure piled on by tumbling poll numbers. But in recent weeks the shape of an aggressive “back to basics” campaign is emerging with a strong focus on housing pushed through a familiar left-populist critique of the current Government. It’s worked before. Whether it can work again is one of the chief political questions of the pre-election election.

In the Dáil, once the budget is presented on October 1st, the Government will soon afterwards introduce the Finance Bill and the Social Welfare Bill to give effect to many of the measures. How quickly that is done will be a firm indicator of a likely 2024 election; normally the Finance Bill would be cleared by the Cabinet a few weeks after the budget. Sources now say it could go to Cabinet the following week, and be tabled in the Dáil shortly afterwards.

There will be other important Bills in the Dáil. Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien has told his Cabinet colleagues that the mammoth planning Bill will be passed by the middle of October – a significant step, the Government hopes, in speeding up the planning process in order to deliver more houses. Likely the parliamentary guillotine – a motion that ends the debate and completes the Bill if passed – will be used.

The Government also intends to bring the Defamation Bill to the Dáil. This may not be completed, but its second-stage debate will give Government TDs and Ministers an opportunity to recall the large number of Sinn Féin TDs who have taken defamation proceedings against the media, including Mary Lou McDonald, who is suing RTÉ.

Expect the hate crime Bill – probably in heavily amended form – also to make the list of “things that have to be done”.

But in truth, legislative affairs will be pretty far down most people’s agendas.

Whether the election comes in November or early next year, politicians in all parties are now focused on their constituencies and the relentless competition for votes under way everywhere. “I’d prefer to be at home canvassing,” one confessed at his think-in.

In the US, the presidential race will be decided by a handful of states; in the UK, many Westminster seats are safe for one party or another. But Irish elections are intensely competitive in every constituency and frequently decided by wafer-thin margins of a few hundred votes or fewer. Politicians know that every door knocked on increases their chances of winning – voters are quite receptive to being asked personally for their vote. That reality will overhang politics in the coming term.