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Political conclaves suggest parties gearing up to embark on big election auction

Coalition and alternatives preparing in the assumption of a November general election because that timing suits their interests

A woman drops her vote into the ballot box during the vote on the European Union's fiscal treaty referendum at a Polling Station in Dublin, Ireland, on Thursday, May 31, 2012. The Irish vote on the European Union's latest treaty today, with polls indicating they will endorse measures designed to ease the euro region's debt crisis. Photographer: Aidan Crawley/Bloomberg
Indications are that political parties are already in election mode. Photograph: Aidan Crawley/Bloomberg
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy
Tue Sept 17 2024 - 06:00

Three political think-ins on Monday jostled for attention in advance of the Dáil’s return on Wednesday.

The Greens and Sinn Féin gathered (separately, it should be said) in Dublin city centre, with Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald donning her best “bring it on” face. A flurry of policy announcements in recent weeks from her party and a deeply personal interview last week in which she discussed her family’s health challenges have been the latter, public stages of the party’s efforts to refloat itself after sinking so badly in the local and European elections. Recent polls suggest it is making some progress. The same polls also noted the precariousness of the Greens’ existence.

[ Sinn Féin would spend €1bn of Apple windfall on investment in working-class areas - McDonald ]

Fianna Fáil leader and Tánaiste Micheál Martin’s speech to his parliamentary party’s gathering out in sunny Killiney, south Co Dublin, contained the now customary complaints about shortcomings of opinion polls and the media narrative that flows from them. It also contained messages that seemed to be intended for other people in Government — perhaps even the Taoiseach? “We have an obligation to govern and not engage in some form of permanent campaign,” said Martin.

Overall, the think-ins, and associated media outings, suggested that all parties are gearing up to embark on a massive political auction. The Greens are promising to extend free public transport for children while McDonald pledged a billion euros for disadvantaged areas.

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Minister for Finance Jack Chambers predicted average workers would benefit by €1,000 from Budget 2025. Expect plenty more of this.

[ Average worker to gain by at least €1,000 in Budget 2025, says Minister ]

But sooner or later, they all keep coming back to the subject that is on everyone’s minds — the timing of the general election. The Coalition leaders insist that they have not discussed the matter — which, if true, is remarkable and probably does not suggest open and honest communications at the top of Government. Yesterday, Taoiseach Simon Harris reiterated that he wanted the administration to last its full term — though he declined to be drawn on exactly when that might be.

He had not, he corrected Pat Kenny, been “been quite as definitive” that the election would be next year. “You can never foresee around every single corner in politics,” he said. Ears pricked up across Government.

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Green leader Roderic O’Gorman indicated a preference for next year, though conceded it could be earlier. He said the issue had not been formally discussed. When pressed, he eventually said it hadn’t been informally discussed either.

Last week, at his think-in, Harris sought to shift responsibility for any U-turn on an election date on to his Coalition partners. This week, they are returning the service with added topspin. A February election would be “ideal”, said Martin. If he thinks that, he is near enough the only man in his party who does.

Interestingly, Martin said that there would be no need to have byelections before the election if the Government decided to go the full distance until next February or March. The Government had received legal advice on this point, he said. Though quite why it would seek legal advice on this point if it wasn’t discussing the date of the next election is unclear.

The truth of the matter is this: Government parties (and everyone else) are preparing in the assumption of a November general election because that is so obviously in their political interests.

And because it is in their interests, they will probably find a way to do that, and an agreed narrative that gets them there. They just don’t seem to have even begun to figure out what that is yet.