And so we are back. But for how long? The Dáil returns today after the summer break. A sad procession of TDs and Senators will traipse back to Leinster House, trailing their satchels behind them. Given the summer we have had, this week’s burst of sunshine must have made many of them feel that they would prefer to be anywhere else rather than inside a crowded Dáil chamber with more than 160 others.
It’s probably the last session of the Dáil before the next election. If the vote is in November, we will have an election called within the next three or four weeks. Even if it’s a 2025 election I don’t think the Dáil will come back after Christmas. In such a scenario Simon Harris will call an election early in the new year.
We have had a prolonged palaver on when the election will be held. Every Government Minister and leader is asked the same question every day. All three leaders are saying the Government is going to serve a full term. Micheál Martin even mentioned February when talking to reporters on Monday. But then on Tuesday he said “there’s not much difference between November and February”.
Most backbench TDs from the two bigger Government parties favour a November election. Every election – even one in November – will contain “unknown unknowns”: events that happen around the campaign that have not been predicted but have a telling impact.
Dáil returns but maybe not for long as evidence points to November election
Increasing health budget every year not sustainable, Robert Watt to tell Oireachtas committee
Michael McGrath given mid-ranking EU commissioner for justice job
Politicians speculating on November election ‘doing serious damage’, says Ceann Comhairle
But the underlying factors all scream “November” to Government backbench TDs. It minimises the time Sinn Féin has to recover after their poor electoral performances in June. It will also come immediately after one of the biggest giveaway budgets in the history of the State. The weather will also be relatively benign and there will be some daylight.
Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl has weighed in on the issue, as Cormac McQuinn reports, telling parties the constant speculation on a November election is damaging the credibility of the Oireachtas.
What about February?
There are fewer factors that can be controlled after Christmas. If the weather is cruel, and the hospital waiting lists are long, that’s not good for any outgoing government. There is also the fact that the early part of the new year can often not be people’s favourite time of year. The days are dark, Christmas is over, and many people don’t have a huge amount of money to swill around.
The last three general elections – 2011, 2016 and 2020 – were all held in February so a February election is not a new phenomenon by any means. It could give the Government parties a little more time to tick off more boxes in the “interests and achievements” section of its CV. It could also give Fine Gael candidates who are unknown quantities a little more time to raise their profiles.
In any instance, it’s the last Dáil term. Micheál Martin confirmed at the Fianna Fáil think-in on Monday there will be no by-elections held for the four vacancies caused by the election of Kathleen Funchion (Sinn Féin); Michael McNamara (Independent); Aodhan Ó Ríordáin (Labour) and Barry Cowen (Fianna Fáil) to the European Parliament.
Most of the evidence points to November. Parties are continuing to hold selection conventions at warp speed and there will be few party candidates unratified by the end of the month.
What has to be done before the election? Well the Government has a number of key pieces of legislation to get through, namely the planning Bill; the gambling Bill and a new justice Bill. It’s also moving the mental health Bill and the defamation Bill in the Dáil. Both are substantial pieces of legislation. You can expect guillotines galore if all that legislation is to pass in time for a November election.
What can we expect in the Dáil this week?
The Apple windfall will surely feature. So will the continuing horror in the Middle East and the frankly shocking – and audacious – attack by Israel in which thousands of pagers held by Hizbullah detonated simultaneously. I think we will have debates going into the weeds of wedge election issues such as housing, homelessness, immigration, defence, childcare and health.
The other interesting development is the appointment of Michael McGrath as EU commissioner for justice, which is not the portfolio that any Irish political observer would have associated with the Cork politician. Still, despite the reservations of Maynooth professor of European Studies John O’Brennan about how powerful the role is, the consensus is that McGrath was a winner.
As Jack Power reports from Brussels, McGrath’s portfolio is considered to be mid-ranking. “While large countries such as France, Italy, Spain and Poland secured some of the most important portfolios, Ireland was given a middle-of-the-table job responsible for justice and upholding the rule of law in Europe.”
And of course there is also the small matter of a bicycle shed that cost €335,000, the cost of an average house down the country.
Morning Reads
In advance of a meeting of the Oireachtas health committee today, we report on the huge reliance the HSE has had on external management consultants in recent years.
A blast from the past. Michael McDowell talks about the “pull factors” for immigration, a phrase last used frequently by a Fianna Fáil-led government more than 20 years ago.
Anyone else for the last of the think-ins? Jack Horgan-Jones reports on the Social Democrats meeting in Dublin, where Holly Cairns signalled a willingness to go into government but with terms and conditions applied.
“Our aim is to go into government, but we won’t go into government for the sake of it, to make up the numbers,” she said.
Jack Horgan-Jones reports that a proposed accommodation centre for asylum seekers in Limerick has been stalled after an intervention by Minister for Higher Education Patrick O’Donovan.
Jack Power’s explainer on what the EU’s commissioner for justice does.
Fintan O’Toole writes that Ireland may be blind to the abuses that may be happening now.
Academic Eoin Drea argues that justice was the portfolio nobody wanted and that its allocation to Michael McGrath shows how low Ireland’s stock has fallen in Europe.
Playbook
Dáil
14:01: Leaders’ Questions
14:35: Order of Business and Questions on Policy or Legislation
15:11: Taoiseach’s Questions. Specific questions about the Department of An Taoiseach.
15:56: Statements on the CJEU Judgment in the Apple State aid case
18:23: Mental Health Bill, 2024 – Second Stage
20:09: Private Members’ Business (Sinn Féin): Motion re Childcare
22:11: Topical Issues
22:59: Dáil adjourns
Oireachtas Committees
09.30: Enterprise Committee.
Detailed scrutiny of the National Minimum Wage (Equal Pay for Young Workers) Bill, 2022
10.00: Health
Progress being made by the Productivity and Savings Taskforce
- Officials from Dept of Health
- Representatives from Health Service Executive (HSE)
13.30: Transport and Communications
Engagement with Eurocontrol to discuss aviation trends, air traffic control and drone activity.
13.30: Finance and Public Expenditure
Pre-legislative scrutiny of the general scheme of the IBRC Special Liquidation and Dissolution of Nama Bill with officials from the Department of Finance
15.30: Budgetary Oversight
Pre Budget 2025 Engagement
- Representatives from the Central Bank
- Representatives from the Economic and Social Research Institute
- Representatives from The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
- Representatives from the Neven Economic Research Institute
17.30: Disability Matters Committee
Aligning disability funding with the UNCRPD
18.30: Budgetary Oversight
Pre Budget 2025 Engagement (resumed)
- Jack Chambers, Minister for Finance
- Paschal Donohoe, Minister for Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform
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