Support for Fine Gael has increased, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos opinion poll, with approval ratings for Taoiseach Simon Harris surging since the last poll in early summer.
Support for Sinn Féin has fallen since the last poll, while the personal rating for party leader Mary Lou McDonald also declined sharply.
The results of the poll are likely to intensify pressure on Mr Harris to call an election after the budget. He and the other Coalition party leaders have repeatedly insisted they intend to wait until next February or March to hold the election, though there is a widespread belief across political circles that an election in November is likely.
The state of the parties, when undecided voters and those unlikely to vote are excluded, is as follows: Fine Gael 27 per cent (up four); Sinn Féin 20 per cent (down three); Fianna Fáil 19 per cent (down one).
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Among the smaller parties the Green Party is at 5 per cent (up one); Labour 6 per cent (up one); the Social Democrats 4 per cent (up one); Solidarity-People Before Profit 2 per cent (no change); Aontú 1 per cent (no change).
Independents are at 16 per cent (down one).
Undecided voters – which are excluded from the above figures – rise slightly by one point to 20 per cent.
[ Pat Leahy: Poll findings will prompt renewed discussion about pre-Christmas election ]
Voters were asked which party, if any, they would vote for in an immediate general election.
Today’s result is the highest level of support that Fine Gael has registered since June of 2021, but is the lowest that Sinn Féin has seen since before the last general election in 2020. However, the Sinn Féin result is substantially better than the share of the vote achieved by the party at the local and European elections in May.
There is further good news for the Coalition when voters are asked if they are satisfied with the performance of the Government and its leaders.
Government satisfaction jumps by nine points to 40 per cent, its highest level in nearly two years. The jump in the approval rating for Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris is even more dramatic – he sees his personal rating surge by 17 points to 55 per cent.
[ The Irish Times view on Fine Gael’s poll surge: a big jump for Simon HarrisOpens in new window ]
Satisfaction with the Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin increases marginally by one point to 47 per cent, while Roderic O’Gorman, the Green Party leader, debuts in this series with a satisfaction rating of 17 per cent. This is a decline of four points from the final rating achieved by his predecessor Eamon Ryan.
There is further bad news for the Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald on her personal rating. She drops by six points, from 36 per cent in May to 30 per cent today, her lowest rating in the series since 2019, before the last general election.
The decline in support for Sinn Féin – and for Ms McDonald – continues an unwelcome trend for the party that has been evident for more than a year. Each Irish Times/Ipsos poll conducted this year has seen Sinn Féin support decline steadily.
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The poll was conducted among a representative sample of adults aged 18 years and upwards across 120 sampling points throughout all constituencies. Unlike most other opinion polls, The Irish Times/Ipsos series is conducted through face-to-face sampling; personal in-home interviewing took place between September 14th and September 17th, 2024. The total number of interviews conducted was 1,200. The accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
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