Preparations are under way to facilitate an early election should the Coalition leaders decide to go to the country in November, according to the front page of The Irish Times this morning.
Well, that didn’t take long! No one can be surprised that the political establishment has swiftly moved on from the €10 billion giveaway budget: the timing of an election has been all anyone could talk about from the very beginning of this year, long before Taoiseach Simon Harris brought his “new energy” to Fine Gael.
As Pat Leahy reports in our lead story this morning, the Finance Bill – a key piece of legislation which must be passed to give effect to some budget measures – is being fast-tracked to be approved by the Cabinet next week. The plan is that it will be before the Dáil the following week.
Work is also under way, Leahy writes, to have the Social Welfare Bill, which gives effect to social welfare changes, finished and presented to Cabinet next week while officials are also preparing a short Bill to enable the energy credits to be paid.
Could the passage of all three Bills be rushed through the Oireachtas?
If so, game on.
Heightening the tension is the fact that supplementary estimates (these are basically top-up budgets needed for departments which exceed their spending limits) will also be voted through earlier this year.
It now looks as though these will be presented to the Dáil on the week ending October 18th – at least a month earlier than usual.
What has Harris to say about all of this?
He was out in Dublin yesterday with his general election candidates where he said it was his “constitutional prerogative to call the election but I have been very clear in relation to wanting to do this in a respectful way at the right time.”
“I think this Government operates very well, I have great respect for the two Coalition leaders that I serve with, and I won’t be providing them with running commentaries or surprises.”
In the halls of Leinster House, rumours, speculation and theories abound. We contacted more than 30 parliamentarians and all but two of them believed a November election was the the most likely outcome.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald also basically put it up to the Government and said the public now has a clear choice to make in the general election. She called on Harris to “bring it on and name the date”.
For his part, Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin reiterated his view that February would be the “ideal time” for an election. He said he finds the “frenzy” of speculation “hard to understand because the difference between November and February isn’t enormous”. But that speculation comes from, among other places, his own ranks. Fans of horror movies might right now be thinking of an infamous line to the effect of: “we’ve traced the call – and it’s coming from inside the house, Micheál.”
Budget 2025
Elsewhere this morning, Cormac McQuinn brings you the nine budget measures you may have missed.
This includes funding to prepare for the Los Angeles Games in 2028, tax relief for producers of cider and strawberry wine, a tax credit for reality TV shows, money for new embassies and weather technology innovations.
In the same vein, Sport Ireland will receive an additional €6 million in funding to build on Team Ireland’s success at the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games, including more than €1 million in extra funds for high-performance programmes.
If there is one part of the budget which may eventually blow up in the Government’s face, it will likely be their plan to spend €9 million to keep students off their phones during the school day, including through secure pouches to store the devices in. Sinn Féin have branded the plan “inexplicable”. What exactly is going on? Read an explainer here.
Best Reads
How did the High Court case between a University Hospital Limerick surgeon and the HSE come about?
Red lines – Frank McNally on the little-known story of an Irish translator in 1920s Moscow.
“Don’t worry the Christmas babies will be looked after”: Parents of babies born in December to receive treble child benefit payment.
On yesterday’s Inside Politics podcast we discussed the budget and the fight to convert a giveaway budget to electoral success.
And here is The Irish Times view on the Vance-Walz debate: more important than usual
Playbook
Dáil Éireann
Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly will take parliamentary questions at 10.30am.
At noon, Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, the Rural Independent Group, and Independent Group will set the agenda at Leaders’ Questions.
Expect questions on policy and legislation around a half an hour later.
Government business will be taken at 1.45pm. The Merchant Shipping (Investigation of Marine Accidents) Bill 2024 is up, followed by financial resolutions related to the budget.
Topical issues of the day will be discussed at 8.30pm and the Dáil adjourns at 9.20pm.
Seanad
Commencement matters are up at 9.30am, followed by the order of business an hour later.
Then there will be a motion without debate on trademarks, followed by a debate on the Criminal Justice (Amendment) Bill 2024.
The Seanad adjourns at 1.30pm.
Committees
The Public Accounts Committee meets at 9.30am to discuss the University of Limerick’s financial statements. The committee will also hear from the officials from the Department of Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science.
At the same time, Joint Committee on Drugs Use will meet and discuss a health-led approach to the topics at hand with the SAOL Project, representatives from Merchants Quay Ireland, Dr Sharon Lambert of University College Cork and others.
At 10.30am, the Joint Committee on Key Issues affecting the Traveller Community will meet to discuss Irish Travellers’ access to justice.
The Joint Committee on Public Petitions and the Ombudsmen will meet at 3.30pm.
The full schedule for the Dáil, Seanad and Committees can be found here.
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