Taoiseach Simon Harris has confirmed he will call the general election later this week once the Finance Bill, giving effect to Budget 2025 measures and other legislation, passes the Dáil.
“I don’t think that will come as a shock to any person right across this country,” he told reporters before heading into Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting.
So, how will the choreography play out?
This is the last week of the present Dáil. A series of Bills will be rushed through the House on Tuesday and Wednesday and then the election will be called on Thursday or Friday. The slight complicating factor on the Taoiseach’s schedule is that he has to attend a meeting of European leaders in Budapest on Thursday afternoon and evening, running into Friday morning. So he either calls the election on Thursday morning before he goes, or Friday afternoon after he returns.
What’s the best guess?
Friday. Senior officials say that is what they are preparing for. The Taoiseach isn’t enthusiastic about calling an election and then being out of the country for the first 24 hours of the campaign, understandably. And he can’t skip the summit, which is likely to centre around a discussion on the EU’s response to the US election result. So the expectation is that he will return from Budapest as early as possible on Friday – probably early afternoon – and head to Aras an Uachtarain.
What’s he going there for?
The Taoiseach doesn’t actually dissolve the Dáil – the President does, on the advice of the Taoiseach. The President does have the power to refuse a dissolution but it has never been used and constitutional scholars say it could realistically only be used in the case where there was an obvious alternative government with the majority in the Dáil. That’s not the case. President Michael D Higgins will formally grant the dissolution, and the 33rd Dáil will be no more. There are, from that moment, no TDs, because there is no Dáil. A new Dáil will meet after the election, probably around December 18th.
But there’s still a government, right?
Yes. There is always a government. When the next Dáil votes in a new Taoiseach – or continues with the same one, and he or she forms a new government – the Ministers take over from the current Government. In the meantime, the Ministers of the current Government remain in office, though the convention is that they are a “caretaker” government, and do not make any significant policy decisions. That’s just a convention, though, not a rule, and sometimes circumstances dictate otherwise. In 2020, it was a “caretaker” government led by Leo Varadkar – after he had suffered a terrible election result – that introduced the first lockdown of the Covid-19 pandemic.
So what about polling day?
That will be set by the Minister for Housing and Local Government Darragh O’Brien. He must choose, essentially, whether it should be a three- or four-week campaign. Last week, speaking to reporters, he said that he would do whatever the party leaders had agreed. That is almost certain to be a three-week campaign, with votes to be cast on Friday, November 29th.
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