With campaigning for Election 2024 in full swing, the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll puts Fine Gael in pole position, on 25 per cent, although a drop of two points since September means their lead has narrowed.
Sitting behind Fine Gael, neck and neck, are Fianna Fáil (19 per cent, unchanged) and Sinn Féin (19 per cent, down one point).
Fieldwork for this latest poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week among a nationally representative sample of 1,200 Irish adults aged 18 years and upwards. All Irish Times/Ipsos B&A polls are conducted in-home at 120 sampling points throughout the country, covering every constituency.
A change of leadership likely gave Fine Gael a midyear boost, but a five-point drop in satisfaction with Simon Harris (to 50 per cent), together with a small decline in party support, indicate the honeymoon may be coming to an end.
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Support for Fianna Fáil has held steady at 19 per cent. Irish Times/Ipsos B&A polls over the past three years have shown support for Fianna Fáil falling into the 19 per cent to 21 per cent range on all but two occasions. Two weeks remain for the party to reach escape velocity and break through this 21 per cent barrier.
Party leader Micheál Martin remains popular but is marginally less so this wave, down two points to 45 per cent.
There may have been an expectation, or hope, that a generous budget would be wind in the sails of the Government parties. Not so according to today’s poll, which shows a slight fall in Government satisfaction, down one point to 39 per cent.
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Neither has the Green Party seen any benefit from the budget, losing two points to land on 3 per cent. Satisfaction with Roderic O’Gorman’s leadership has moved upwards to 21 per cent, a gain of four points.
Sinn Féin’s decline may be bottoming out, having fallen six points, five points, three points and one point in the last four polls. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald trails Harris and Martin in the leadership stakes, with a 31 per cent satisfaction rating, up one point.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil combined are on 44 per cent, so short of an overall majority. If they team up again for the next five years, they will probably need help in forming a government. There are several possibilities.
Labour, at 5 per cent (down one point), could be in demand, as too could the Social Democrats at 4 per cent (no change).
Aontú is on 3 per cent (up two points) and PBP-Solidarity is unchanged on 2 per cent.
A contingent of Independents to make up the numbers is also an option.
If election campaigns give Independents the voice they struggle to find in normal times, it should come as no surprise that they are the movers in this pre-election poll, up four points to 20 per cent.
All politics is local and at election time focus shifts to regional strengths and weaknesses.
The larger parties are well represented across the country, as you would expect, with the most notable exception being an underrepresentation for Fianna Fáil in Connaught-Ulster (13 per cent), where Fine Gael (29 per cent) and Independents (32 per cent) catch most of the vote.
Fine Gael has gained ground in the Rest of Leinster region in recent months — up from 19 per cent in February to 29 per cent in this latest poll: having a Wicklow Taoiseach has its benefits. The party, however, scores below average in Dublin where competition for the middle-class vote from the likes of the Greens, Social Democrats and Labour is intense.
Independents have extremely broad support geographically as local issues are often at the heart of their appeal. Immigration — a national issue which, like healthcare, has a hyperlocal dimension — is where Independents will direct their attention if there are specific concerns in their geography.
Battle lines have been drawn. The lack of any dramatic shifts in this latest poll suggests every vote gained in this election will be hard won.
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Damian Loscher is president of Ipsos B&A
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