Good morning and welcome to the Inside Politics election digest.
It’s a week since the general election was called and we have our first opinion poll taken during the campaign in today’s Irish Times. It’s good news for Fine Gael – at 25 per cent, the party has a clear lead over its rivals in Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, both on 19 per cent.
There’s a caveat, though; Fine Gael is down by a couple of points, and Simon Harris’s satisfaction rating is down by five points. True, he’s still the most popular party leader in the country. And the poll shows that Fine Gael are now the clear front runners in this election. But the drop in Harris’s and his party’s ratings will be enough to keep everyone on their toes, all the same. It wouldn’t take much for the race to start looking very tight indeed.
Here’s the full list of figures: Fine Gael 25 per cent (down two); Sinn Féin 19 per cent (down one); Fianna Fáil 19 per cent (no change); the Green Party 3 per cent (down two); Labour 5 per cent (down one); the Social Democrats 4 per cent (no change); People Before Profit Solidarity 2 per cent (no change); Aontú 3 per cent (up two). Independents are at 20 per cent (up four).
Election 2024 live updates: Another busy day on the campaign trail as first poll flags tight race
The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll: the full results in charts
First election poll shows it wouldn’t take much for the race to start looking very tight
Even if Sinn Féin wins as many seats as Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, it has no obvious path to government
So apart from Fine Gael, the big winners are the Independents, whose support jumps four points, and they can expect significant seat gains if these numbers – or anything like them – are repeated on polling day. They could yet be players in the formation of the next government.
Pat Leahy’s analysis finds that with many voters unlikely to finally make up their minds until closer to election day, the race seems set to tighten further; Damian Loscher’s take is that a change of leadership likely gave Fine Gael a midyear boost, and the Special Election Daily podcast finds Independents will be a force to reckon with next time out.
Phoney war
The phoney war between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil continued yesterday when Simon Harris dismissed Micheál Martin’s call for a “ceasefire” between them, made on the Indo’s podcast the previous day.
“I think after he said that, he then went on the attack,” Harris told reporters. “Giving out about being attacked whilst then attacking is an interesting way of doing things.”
Harris said that during an election it was important to debate ideas without being personal, and that there were policy differences between his party and Fine Gael. “The fact we’re debating them is good,” he said.
In fairness, he has a point. There are policy differences between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. They’re just not as big as the policy differences between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil on one side, and most of the Opposition on the other.
You goin’ to pay for that?
Asked about a commitment Fine Gael is making to ultimately abolish the means test for carers, while raising the amount people can earn without losing entitlement to the payment to €2,500 for a couple and €1,250 for an individual, Harris said that all the costings would be in the manifesto, which is due to be launched on Sunday.
A review on the future of the carers’ payment is due to be completed in December, he said. But officials in the Department of Social Protection have already examined it. The cost of the measure would be €600 million on the basis of current commitments, but that could rise to as much as €2 billion.
All discussed on yesterday’s Election Daily podcast.
Less room at the inn
Most parties – and certainly the three main parties – have toughened their line on immigration. Sinn Féein has probably toughened it the most. Yesterday, Mary Lou McDonald unveiled the party’s plan on immigration, which was more or less the same as the plan it published during the summer. It features a pledge that no more asylum centres will be located in working-class communities – instead, they will be put in wealthier neighbourhoods. Jennifer Bray has the story.
Criminal candidate
Among the candidates lodging their nomination papers yesterday was Gerry “the Monk” Hutch, Dublin Central’s friendly local gangster. There has not been a warm welcome from the local TDs.
“I represent communities that have suffered because of this so-called gangland warfare,” said Mary Lou McDonald. “I represent communities that have suffered the ravages of the heroin epidemic in the 1980s. I roundly condemn Gerry Hutch, or anyone else who was involved in crime.”
Paschal Donohoe said that the communities of the area should “put the days of organised crime behind us”, warning of the “awful, awful damage” it had done.
Simon Harris was blunter still. “It’s important we don’t treat this individual like some sort of minor celebrity. This is a person who’s brought misery and criminality to this capital city. He’s not a celebrity. He’s a criminal.”
Show me the money
Cliff Taylor runs a beady eye over spending promises.
It’s the question on everyone’s lips: what are the students in Trinity saying about the election?
Campaign Diary
Fianna Fáil will launch a plan to tackle crime and keep communities safe with James Browne, Fiona O’Loughlin and Jim O’Callaghan.
Labour health spokesperson Duncan Smith will be joined by candidates Conor Sheehan and Martha Fanning for the party’s health and social care policy launch.
Soc Dems will launch their housing policy in Marino at 10.45am. Cian O’Callaghan and Cllr Jen Cummins will be there.
Fine Gael will set out its plan to strengthen An Garda Síochána, enhance community safety and strengthen national security. Helen McEntee, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill and Barry Ward all in attendance.
People Before Profit will host a press photo and interview event on Stephen’s Green to highlight their call for free and frequent public transport to reduce emissions and end car pollution and traffic jams. Richard Boyd Barrett and Paul Murphy will attend.
At Wolfe Tone Park (beside Jervis Shopping Centre) this morning, the Green Party will unveil its policies for improving transport safety. Representatives will discuss policies such as introducing speeding fines based on the offender’s disposable income, greater rollout of cameras and liveable cities with safe routes to schools. Neasa Hourigan, Patrick Costello, David Healy will be there.
Best Reads
FF and FG should stop the squabbling, says Stephen Collins.
Left-wing parties should also stop the squabbling, says Justine McCarthy. We’re very anti-squabbling this morning.
Good coverage of the Trump cabinet appointments, including the appointment of vaccine sceptic Robert F Kennedy jnr to be the US secretary of health, which is a bit like making Richard Dawkins the pope.
What the papers say
The Examiner has a warning about climate change on its front page.
The tabloids, perhaps predictably, prefer the Gerry Hutch angle. “From Bail to Ballot Box, Hutch in bizarre bid for the Dáil,” says the Mail.
The Indo has a warning from a trade union leader that the new Government may face public sector strikes within weeks
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