As the general election looms, the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll reveals a nation seeking stability rather than sweeping change. While a significant minority (35 per cent) are looking for radical change, a majority (53 per cent), albeit slim, would like to see only moderate change, with 9 per cent wary of any change at all.
Fieldwork for this latest poll was conducted on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of last week among a nationally representative sample of 1,200 Irish adults aged 18 years and upwards. All Irish Times/Ipsos B&A polls are conducted in-home at 120 sampling points throughout the country, covering every constituency.
The preference for moderate change to how the country is run is particularly evident in Dublin (61 per cent), among the middle classes (60 per cent) and among the farming community (59 per cent).
As one would expect, the majority of Green Party (74 per cent), Fine Gael (70 per cent) and Fianna Fáil (62 per cent) voters do not want to rock the boat and favour moderate change. The majority of Labour Party voters (70 per cent) are also looking for moderate change.
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The call for radical change (35 per cent among all voters) finds its strongest advocates among Sinn Féin voters (61 per cent), working-class voters (44 per cent) and those aged 25 to 49 years (40 per cent).
This Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll also asked voters about their preferences for government formation. A new coalition made of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and someone else other than the Greens emerged as the most popular choice at 27 per cent (down just one point since our poll earlier this month), followed by a Sinn Féin-led government without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael at 21 per cent (up three points). Continuing with the current Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Green Party coalition garners less support at 16 per cent (down one point). A further 17 per cent of voters did not favour any of the options put forward and 11 per cent had no opinion.
Preferences for government formation elicit no great surprises from a party support perspective.
A significant majority of both Fianna Fáil (83 per cent) and Fine Gael (82 per cent) supporters favour a coalition that includes both parties. However, both sets of voters would prefer to see their respective parties join forces with a partner other than the Green Party. Specifically, 50 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters and 48 per cent of Fine Gael voters favour a coalition excluding the Green Party, compared with 33 per cent and 34 per cent respectively who would like to see the current arrangement continue.
The majority of Sinn Féin supporters are hoping for a new coalition that does not include either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael (69 per cent), while 17 per cent favour a coalition with Fianna Fáil.
Just over half of Green Party voters (54 per cent) would like to stick with the status quo.
Labour Party supporters are somewhat divided, with a significant proportion (39 per cent) open to joining a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition and a slightly lower proportion (32 per cent) not inclined to get behind any of the coalition options put forward. Should Labour find itself in a position to have a role in shaping the next government, leader Ivana Bacik will have a job bringing everyone on board.
With support for the Social Democrats on the rise, it is possible that they too could play a role in forming the next government. Their supporters, however, are not excited about the prospect of joining forces with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – 36 per cent did not favour any of the coalition options put forward and a further 30 per cent like the idea of a new coalition led by Sinn Féin.
While the outcome of Friday’s election is far from decided, all indications are that the electorate will not be voting for a radical overhaul of how the country is governed. That said, it remains to be seen how a new government will be formed without substantial compromise on all sides.
Aisling Corcoran is a director of Ipsos B&A
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