A coalition based on Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael remains the most popular choice for government after the general election, according to the final Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll of the campaign.
After a sharp drop in support for Fine Gael in the poll, which has dealt a severe blow to party morale, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael still maintain a strong lead as the most favoured combination for government.
Asked which combination of parties they would like to see in government after the election, 16 per cent said they wanted to see a return of the current Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil-Green coalition.
A further 27 per cent said they wanted to see a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition with another party – a total of 43 per cent who favour Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as the anchors of the next government. This is a marginal decline of two points since the start of the campaign.
Election 2024 live updates: Option of Sinn Féin led government rises in popularity, poll shows
Ireland stumbled accidentally into the fiscal garden of Eden. We could suddenly be turfed out
Manifesto media pledges — ‘Netflix levy’, legal reform in 100 days and €500m a year for RTÉ
Ireland’s failure to investigate floating wind farms is shameful
A government led by Sinn Féin and without either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil was the choice of 21 per cent, an increase of three points.
Just 8 per cent favoured a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin coalition, while 17 per cent favoured none of these combinations. A further 11 per cent offered no opinion.
The latest poll comes amid anxiety in Fine Gael over what some party candidates have described as a change in mood on the ground after a difficult few days for party leader Simon Harris.
“Something has changed. The fear is that people now think our leader is insincere,” said a party source.
Others say the incident in Kanturk “undermines” the image Harris has portrayed of himself.
Members on the ground report low morale after the poll. Some say it is coming up on canvasses, while others say they believe people “are talking about it behind closed doors, away from us”.
One candidate said there was a belief that Harris needs to “take a rest” and is “exhausted”.
Election Daily: a new hope for Sinn Féin as Fine Gael tries to stop the rot
According to Monday’s poll, Sinn Féin tops the list of parties that voters don’t want to see in government, with 35 per cent of respondents nominating it, though this is a fall of five points since earlier in the campaign.
The Green Party is next, with 17 per cent who say they don’t want the party in government, though again this shows a fall, down by 9 per cent. The largest drop in negativity is towards Fianna Fáil, down 12 points to just 10 per cent of people who don’t want to see them in government. Fine Gael’s negative rating is down by six points, to 15 per cent.
Voters remain strongly in favour of “moderate change” (53 per cent, down three) in preference to “radical change” (35 per cent), while the number of those who say they are “wary of change” has grown by two points to 9 per cent.
Voters were also asked if Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were returned to government after the election, would they want to see a continuation of the rotating taoiseach arrangement, or if the party with the most seats should occupy the taoiseach’s office.
A majority of those who expressed a view (46 per cent) said the rotating arrangement should continue, though a substantial minority (38 per cent) said the party with the most seats should lead the government.
The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 1,200 adults across 120 sampling points throughout all constituencies. Personal in-home interviewing took place between November 20th and 23rd. The accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Join The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Listen to our Inside Politics podcast for the best political chat and analysis
- Sign up to our Inside Politics newsletter to get the behind-the-scenes take direct to your inbox
