A coalition based on Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael remains the most popular choice for government after the general election, according to the final Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll of the campaign.
After a sharp drop in support for Fine Gael in the poll, which has dealt a severe blow to party morale, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael still maintain a strong lead as the most favoured combination for government.
A government led by Sinn Féin and without either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil was the choice of 21 per cent, an increase of three points.
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Light Bedtime Reading for Miriam O’Callaghan
Don’t even think the two RTE Prime Time presenters won’t be well briefed ahead of tonight’s Leaders’ Debate.
The Elephant makes it entry into 2024 Race
After last weeks’ double use of a pig by Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, Aontú has got into the act by introducing an elephant into the room.
Some Residents of Nursing Homes have already voted
Marie O’Halloran an Enda O’Dowd visited the Maryfield Nursing Home in Dublin yesterday to talk to residents who have availed of the early voting process. It made for a fascinating piece.
Political Digest
This is today’s political digest. Our political team has been producing this early morning oeuvre every day since the campaign began, giving the inside track on what is happening and what is likely to happen. It is one of our premium services to subscribers to The Irish Times.
And if you want to complete your early morning binge, this is Pat Leahy’s excellent analysis on the latest poll findings and what tonight’s debate means.
The wrong kind of flood of support
This image of flooding in Co Cork has been doing the rounds over the past day, usually with a message on climate change. Like this example from the Green Party’s Dan Boyle. The poster is of Fianna Fáil TD Paidí O’Sullivan, who is a candidate in Cork North Central. Dan choses the wording of his post delicately!
Debate day jitters and the strange introductoin of a 2021 Irish Times article
A strange email from Fine Gael challenging Fianna Fáil Jim O’Callaghan to rule out Sinn Féin as a potential coalition partner. The email is from Barry Ward, the party’s candidate in Dun Laoghaire and asks how can the voters trust Micheál Martin on this issue when his own backbenchers may be putting out a different message?
Ward poses a series of questions:
“Is Jim still willing to facilitate a Sinn Féin government?” he asks.
“I am calling on him to firmly shut the door on propping up a Sinn Féin government and come clean on what his view on the party is.
“How can we take Michéal Martin’s word for it, if we do not know where the rest of his party stands on this?” he concludes.
The article references an article from The Irish Times. But when the link is opened, it’s from 2021, a year after the last election. It surveyed 20 TDs and 17 of them said they would be open to negotiations of some form with Sinn Féin.
So why is Fine Gael bringing up an article from more than three years ago?
The only conclusion is that the party strategists are nervous that Fianna Fáil may be taking an each-way bet in the closing days of the campaign and is not shutting out the possibility wholly of a coalition with Sinn Féin. Micheál Martin has been at pains to say that there are too many fundamental differences between the two parties. But what seems like ice can be very quickly demisted in light of an election result.
So it will be intriguing tonight to see who is marking whose card in what promises to be a dance macabre.
What are the parties doing today?
Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman will set out the party’s central goals for climate policy with Pippa Hackett and with Marc Ó Cathasaigh.
Labour’s transport spokesman Duncan Smith and Fingal West candidates and Rob O’Donoghue will be in Swords to set out plans to decarbonise the transport system.
For Fianna Fáil, Jack Chambers and Dublin Central candidate Mary Fitzpatrick will set out plans on cost-of-living measures and also proposals to prevent the economy from external shocks.
The SocDems will also be outlining cost-of-living measures with Gary Gannon, the other Eoin Ó Broin (Dublin Mid West), and Sinéad Gibney (Dublin Rathdown).
For Fine Gael Paschal Donohoe and Peter Burke will be in Leopardstown to underline their policies on the importance of economic stability to attract FDI and drive future economic growth.
Moving Day for the general election
It’s Tuesday and there are three days left to polling. What happens in the next 15 hours could determine the outcome of Election 2024.
That is not an overstatement. The decisive moment of the event is likely to be tonight’s Prime Time debate involving three potential taoisigh. With Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin all within the margin of error or each other, a strong performance or a misstep could prove to be a fateful political moment.
In advance of the debate, the second day of The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll has looked at how people view potential coalition combinations. A total of 43 per cent favour a pairing of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in some form. Sinn Féin-led government is backed by 21 per cent with a further 8 per cent in favour of a Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin combination.
Tonight’s debate will be co-hosted by Miriam O’Callaghan and Sarah McInerney. A few intriguing questions. Has Simon Harris drawn a line over the incident in Kanturk with care worker Charlotte Fallon? Can he arrest his party’s decline in support? Will Micheál Martin avoid getting bested by Mary Lou McDonald? Will the Sinn Féin leader be found wanting on specific detail and will its populist plan to hold an inquiry int RTÉ's coverage of the Gaza war come under scrutiny.
