The three largest parties of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin are on course for a tight finish in their share of the vote in general election 2024, according to the results of an exit poll Friday night.
The results of the poll, conducted by Ipsos/B&A on Friday for The Irish Times/RTÉ/TG4/TCD, and released just after polls closed, are as follows: Sinn Féin 21.1 per cent, Fianna Fáil 19.5 per cent, Fine Gael 21 per cent, the Green Party 4 per cent, Labour 5 per cent, the Social Democrats 5.8 per cent, People Before Profit Solidarity 3.1 per cent, Aontú 3.6 per cent, Independents/others 14.6 per cent and Independent Ireland 2.2 per cent.
If the exit poll findings are borne out when the votes are counted, it suggests that a return of a coalition based around Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is likely.
If the results of the counts taking place around the country, starting on Saturday morning, bear out the exit poll findings, it will be the second time in a row that Sinn Féin has won the largest share of the vote – but is left without an obvious path to government.
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The poll, however, offers no clarity about which of the smaller parties or Independents might help the two big parties to make up the numbers to form a stable majority in the Dáil.
Government formation may be strongly influenced by whether Labour, the Green Party, the Social Democrats and perhaps some left-leaning Independents – though the Social Democrats have been distinctly cool on the idea during the campaign – carry through on suggestions to agree a common red-green platform before any coalition talks with the big parties.
Either way, with the new Dáil not due to meet until December 18th, it seems there is little likelihood of a new government until well into the new year.
The exit poll was conducted among 5,018 voters at more than 200 locations nationwide, as they left polling stations. It has a margin of error of 1.4 per cent.
The poll is a joint project of The Irish Times, RTÉ, TG4 and the department of political science at Trinity College Dublin.
The poll also asked respondents about their second preferences on the ballot paper. The results suggest that expectations of a strong transfer between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be borne out – a factor which should help the two parties boost their seat numbers.
If the parties achieve the support level suggested by the poll when votes are counted in the coming days, and with a strong transfer between the two parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to approach the 80 seat barrier. A majority in the new Dáil is 88 seats, so if the two big parties combined break 80 seats, it means a coalition with one of the smaller parties – perhaps with additional support from some Independent TDs – could command a Dáil majority. On the basis of the poll results, that seems the most likely route to forming a government.
Almost 3.7 million people, the largest number to date, were eligible to vote, an increase of 423,000 voters since the 2020 election. There were more than 100,000 new registrations in the two weeks before the deadline closed.
Reports of turnout across the 43 constituencies were mixed all day on Friday, though many polling stations reported a low turnout in the early evening.
There were reports of polling stations becoming busier in the evening but by 8pm average turnout in the seven Dublin county constituencies stood at 51 per cent; it was 49.1 per cent across the two Galway constituencies; and the average was 54.3 per cent across the three county constituencies in Cork.
Overall turnout is likely to be down on the just under 63 per cent recorded in 2020.
[ As it happened: Friday's vote and exit poll Opens in new window ]
After the polling stations closed at 10pm, ballot boxes were sealed to be securely transported to the 32 count centres. They will be opened at 9am on Saturday morning and counting the votes will commence, with first tallies expected by midmorning in many places while the results of first counts should begin to emerge in the afternoon.
Note: There will be a special Inside Politics newsletter Saturday morning with additional details from the exit poll
EXIT POLL: Sinn Féin holds slim lead but Fine Gael and and Fianna Fáil return looks likely
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