Election 2024

Key election 2024 battles: maps show where Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin hope to gain - and may lose - seats

With transfers unpredictable, gains and losses are expected to happen at the margins in fiercely-contested multi-seat constituencies

Key election 2024 battles
Key election 2024 battles. Illustration: Paul Scott
Harry McGee's picture
Harry McGee
Thu Nov 28 2024 - 14:17

Identifying target seats in Irish general elections is an art more than a science.

Unless there is a huge surge for one or two parties – as happened in 1992, 2011 and again in 2020 – gains and losses happen at the margins.

Unlike in the UK’s Westminster elections, where it is first past the post, the Irish voting system makes final outcomes difficult to predict. Here, there are multi-seat constituencies with transferable votes which means multiple counts. Transfers can be unpredictable.

Geography can sometimes outrank ideology when votes are being cast. For example, in 2020 in Longford-Westmeath, after his elimination, Fine Gael’s Michael Carrigy transferred more votes to Fianna Fáil’s Joe Flaherty than he did to his party colleague, Peter Burke. The reason? Both Carrigy and Flaherty were from Co Longford.

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Nevertheless, based on the 2020 general election results, party standings in opinion polls, and the candidate selection by the parties, each of the three big parties have identified target constituencies that they can win with a small swing – and others that they might win, if there is strong momentum behind the party on polling day. Equally, they have identified vulnerable seats for each party which they will fail to hold if the performance on the day falls short.

The Irish Times spoke to senior figures in parties and groupings to get a sense of their main targets – the constituencies where they are hoping to take seats; possible gains – seats they will be contending for where the party’s national performance is strong, and the potential losses – vulnerable seats they will struggle to retain on a bad day.

* Click on each constituency name to read a full profile.

Fianna Fáil

The party has 12 main targets for gains, in addition to another eight seats where it believes it can compete for the last seat on a good day. There are eight seats not guaranteed as wins. The vast majority of the main targets are in rural Ireland, while most at-risk seats are in Dublin and Cork.

MAIN TARGETS

  • Donegal: Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher returning to the party for this election could see Fianna Fáil win two seats at the expense of Fine Gael.
  • Louth: The party lost out on a seat in the county in 2020 when Green transfers went to Labour’s Ged Nash. The party has strong candidates in former TV presenter Alison Comyn and Senator Érin McGreehan, with Comyn seen as the favourite.
  • Mayo: Lisa Chambers lost out in 2020. With an extra seat in Mayo, the Fianna Fáil Senator is odds-on favourite to win a second seat for Fianna Fáil.
  • Meath West: The retirement of Fine Gael’s Damien English and reduced support for Sinn Féin means Aisling Dempsey is strongly placed to regain a seat for Fianna Fáil.
  • Kildare North: The retirement of poll-topper Catherine Murphy of the Social Democrats and an extra seat being added to the constituency will put Fianna Fáil in a battle with Fine Gael to win a second seat. Fianna Fáil is pinning its hopes on councillor Naoise Ó Cearúil.
  • Kildare South: A four-seat constituency but effectively a three-seater with Sean Ó Fearghail, the Ceann Comhairle, being re-elected automatically, internal Sinn Féin strife could allow Senator Fiona O’Loughlin regain a seat in a traditionally strong Fianna Fáil constituency.
  • Wexford-Wicklow: A new constituency and Fianna Fáil Senator Malcolm Byrne is odds-on favourite to take a seat.
  • Carlow-Kilkenny: This five-seat constituency is perhaps the only one where Fianna Fáil could take three seats. A fall in support for Sinn Féin, and lack of an incumbent for Fine Gael, could see local councillor Peter ‘Chap’ Cleere sneak in for a third seat for the party.
  • Cork East: With the outgoing Labour seat belonging to Seán Sherlock (who is retiring) lost to the party, Fianna Fáil will be seeking to win a second seat through councillor Deirdre O’Brien, a daughter of former TD Ned O’Keeffe.
  • Clare: The decline of Sinn Féin and the departure of Independent TD Michael McNamara to Europe puts Fianna Fáil Senator Timmy Dooley in a good position to regain the seat he lost in 2020.
  • Dublin South Central: This constituency could be a test of a transfer ‘understanding’ between Coalition partners Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Fianna Fáil’s Catherine Ardagh is the standard bearer. She needs to stay ahead of Fine Gael Senator Mary Seery Kearney and receive heavy transfers from her.
  • Dublin Fingal West: Fianna Fáil Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee is standing here and the party has high hopes for her but it will be very competitive and she will need transfers.

POSSIBLE GAINS

  • Roscommon-Galway: Dr Martin Daly, a GP, is a strong candidate but he faces a tough battle against Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and erstwhile colleague Eugene Murphy, now an Independent.
  • Galway West: The party has held one seat here and would need a 5 per cent swing to be in contention for a second seat for either former newsreader/broadcaster Gráinne Seoige and Galway city councillor John Connolly. If the recent TG4 poll is accurate, it will not happen.
  • Galway East: This is another constituency with an extra seat. Young Fianna Fáil councillor Albert Dolan will put colleague Anne Rabbitte, a sitting TD, under pressure if there is only one seat for the party in this four-seater constituency. Fianna Fáil considers itself to have a “fair chance” of a second seat.
  • Laois: A new three-seater and a long-shot until Brian Stanley and Sinn Féin fell out. Austin Stack is a strong candidate but can only win if Stanley’s support collapses..
  • Tipperary South: If the vote for Sinn Féin’s Martin Browne’s does not hold up, it could provide an opportunity for Imelda Goldsboro in this new three-seater.
  • Kerry: A Fianna Fáil gain revolves around Fine Gael candidate Billy O’Shea. If he does not have an impact, it could open up an opportunity for a Fianna Fáil ‘steal’ of a second seat, though it is a long shot.
  • Dublin Mid-West: This constituency is gaining an extra (fifth) seat, creating an opportunity for Shane Moynihan. Fianna Fáil doesn’t have a TD in this constituency; the party’s candidate came fifth in the then four-seater in 2020 but its biggest difficulty is picking up transfers. This is another long shot for the party.
  • Dublin Rathdown: Fianna Fáil once dominated this constituency but has not had a seat since 2011. An extra seat gives long-serving councillor Shay Brennan a good shot of taking the fourth and final seat.

POTENTIAL LOSSES

  • Wicklow: Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly in Wicklow is facing a significant battle to retain his seat.
  • Cavan-Monaghan: The party has two TDs – Niamh Smyth and Brendan Smith – both based in Cavan. It is facing possible challenges from Aontú's Sarah Reilly and Sinn Féin’s third candidate.
  • Waterford: Fianna Fáil’s sole candidate in Waterford, Mary Butler, will be under pressure if Sinn Féin win two seats and John Cummins reclaims a seat for Fine Gael.
  • Cork South West: With Independent Ireland’s Michael Collins and Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns strongly tipped to retain their seats, Christopher O’Sullivan, a sitting TD, will be in a battle for the final seat with Fine Gael.
  • Cork North West: This is another three-seater where Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil always compete hard for the final seat and there could be a switch this time around.
  • Dublin North West: Social Democrats are showing strongly in Dublin, which could see Rory Hearne comfortably succeeding Róisín Shortall, leaving Fianna Fáil’s Paul McAuliffe, a sitting TD, and Fine Gael candidate Noel Rock both vying for the last seat.
  • Dublin Bay South: Sitting Fianna Fáil TD Jim O’Callaghan is expected to hold his seat, but with Fine Gael guaranteed a seat in this four-seat constituency where it currently doesn’t have a TD, one of the sitting TDs will likely lose out.
  • Dún Laoghaire: Fianna Fáil’s Cormac Devlin is expected to hold on but faces competition from the second Fine Gael candidate, Barry Ward.

Fine Gael

The party has 12 main targets where it could make gains and 10 constituencies where it has a chance of taking an extra seat. Donegal is a vulnerable seat for the party, while it is marginally at risk in six others.

MAIN TARGETS

  • Roscommon-Galway: The seat held by Denis Naughten, the Fine Gael-turned-Independent TD, was always a proxy Fine Gael seat. His brother John’s untimely death has changed the context but Fine Gael could regain a seat.
  • Galway East: The party has three strong candidates in a constituency that has one extra seat this time around. Hopes are high for a second Fine Gael seat in this new four-seater but not after a big battle with Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin.
  • Meath East: Fine Gael will battle it out with Independent Gillian Toole to take the extra seat here. The party’s second candidate, running with sitting TD Helen McEntee, is Sharon Tolan.
  • Wexford-Wicklow: The party is expected to take one of three seats in this new constituency.
  • Offaly: The party has held a seat in the midlands county since 2016 but it has high hopes in local councillor John Clendennen taking the ‘extra’ seat in this new three-seater.
  • Waterford: Senator John Cummins is heavily backed to retake a seat for the party.
  • Tipperary South: This is another new constituency and another strong likelihood of a Fine Gael seat gain through Michael Murphy, the long-time councillor and mayor of Clonmel
  • Dublin Fingal West: New candidate Grace Boland has impressed party strategists and they give her a strong chance of taking a seat in this new constituency.
  • Dublin North West: The return of former TD Noel Rock to a constituency without Róisín Shortall, the former Social Democrats co-leader, for the first time since 1992 has raised hopes he can regain a seat for the party.
  • Dublin South Central: Either Fine Gael’s Mary Seery-Kearney or Fianna Fáil’s Catherine Ardagh could take a seat. A big chunk of Serry-Kearney’s territory was lost to Dublin South West but the party is still backing her to win a seat.
  • Dún Laoghaire: Senator Barry Ward will be in strong contention for the final seat in a battle with the Green Party’s Ossian Smyth, a sitting TD.

POSSIBLE GAINS

  • Mayo: The party is running four candidates but would need a very good day to win three seats.
  • Galway West: It is not outside the bounds of possibility that Sean Kyne would take a second seat for Fine Gael in the five-seat constituency.
  • Longford-Westmeath: Michael Carrigy could benefit from the extra seat in this constituency but he would need either to stay ahead of Independent Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran or a Sinn Féin collapse.
  • Kildare North: With an extra seat and two new candidates joining Fine Gael veteran TD Bernard Durkan, there is strong potential for a second Fine Gael seat.
  • Wicklow: Can the Simon Harris effect bring in a second Fine Gael candidate in Wicklow, despite its reduction in size? This is a slight long shot.
  • Carlow-Kilkenny: Sinn Féin is not as strong as it was in 2020 and the Green Party’s Malcolm Noonan is under pressure. Still with new candidates, Fine Gael winning two seats might be beyond expectations.
  • Cork South West: If either Soc Dems leader Holly Cairns or Fianna Fáil’s Christopher O’Sullivan slip, there is an opportunity for Fine Gael to retake a seat in a three-seat constituency that was a former stronghold for the party.
  • Cork North West: This constituency is always a close battle with Fianna Fáil over the third seat in this rural three-seater. The odds favour Fianna Fáil slightly.
  • Clare: The retirement of Fine Gael’s Joe Carey has brought in new candidates – one Fine Gael seat is assured but there is a marginal chance of the party winning a second.
  • Dublin Bay South: Fine Gael is assured of one seat but if support dips for either Fianna Fáil or the Greens, there is a small chance that councillor Emma Blain could join fellow councillor James Geoghegan in this four-seat constituency.

POTENTIAL LOSSES

  • Donegal: Fine Gael’s only seat is at grave risk in this five-seat constituency. The party is running three candidates but with Fianna Fáil looking strong for two seats, are any strong enough to retain the seat vacated by retiring TD Joe McHugh.
  • Louth: There is usually a safe seat for Fine Gael here, but John McGahon is mired in controversy over an assault outside a pub in 2018. Party colleague Paula Butterly not asking voters to give McGahon a number two vote leaves a question mark over the party’s seat.
  • Meath West: After the early retirement of Fine Gael’s Damien English, Linda Nelson Murray will be in a dogfight with Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and Independent Noel French for the final two seats. Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín has a safe seat here.
  • Wexford: The reduction to a four-seat constituency and the retirement of Fine Gael TD Paul Kehoe raised doubts over the capability of its new candidates to hang on to the party’s seat.
  • Dublin Rathdown: Fine Gael had two seats out of three here and the constituency has an extra seat. But Josepha Madigan has retired and new candidate Maeve O’Connell will battle with Fianna Fáil, the Soc Dems and strong Independent candidates for the final two seats.

Sinn Féin

There are four strong possible gains for Sinn Féin and another seven where it could pick up seats if the party has a good day. On the other hand, the party is in trouble in three constituencies and, if national support is down, there are a further seven constituencies where seats might be at risk.

MAIN TARGETS

  • Galway East: Sinn Féin’s Louis O’Hara came out of nowhere to almost take a seat in 2020. With an extra seat in Galway East, he is in with a strong change of making a gain for the party.
  • Wexford-Wicklow: Fionntán Ó Suilleabháin should take one of the three seats in this new constituency.
  • Waterford: David Cullinane’s bumper vote in 2020 plus the emergence of Conor McGuinness in west Waterford should put Sinn Féin in a strong position to take a second seat.
  • Cork North Central: An extra seat is a possibility in a strong constituency for the party. Joe Lynch is based in Ballincollig where a lot of the new votes are.

POSSIBLE GAINS

  • Donegal: If there is an uplift of support for the party nationally, it could take three out of five seats in what is one of the strongest constituencies for the party.
  • Sligo-Leitrim: The party would need a big surge of support if Chris McManus is to join Martin Kenny in the Dáil.
  • Cavan-Monaghan: Similar to other Border constituencies, any surge in this constituency could make the party competitive for a third seat.
  • Offaly: This is a new constituency and Sinn Féin has a chance to gain a seat, although former Sinn Féin TD Carol Nolan may stymie the party’s ambitions.
  • Clare: The departure of Violet Anne-Wynne, now an Independent, has had an impact on Sinn Féin but the party still believes it could take a seat in this four-seat constituency.
  • Dublin Central: Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald faces an uphill battle to bring in a second TD in this constituency given the high-profile field but there is a slim chance that Janice Boylan could take the final seat.

POTENTIAL LOSSES

  • Kildare South: Patricia Ryan’s resignation has made an already vulnerable seat look lost.
  • Carlow-Kilkenny: Kathleen Funchion, now an MEP, was a big electoral asset. Two unelected candidates face a strong Fianna Fáil ticket, making the retention of its seat a tall ask.
  • Laois: Brian Stanley’s departure will leave Sinn Féin competing with him for a seat. It looks like there will be only one winner.
  • Roscommon-Galway: Sitting TD Claire Kerrane has a high national profile but Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are running big campaigns to join Independent Michael Fitzmaurice. The party should hold on.
  • Galway West: Mairéad Farrell, another sitting TD, needs to leverage her national profile to retain a seat in a competitive constituency.
  • Meath West: Johnny Guirke won a huge vote in 2020 but Peadar Tóibín is the favourite to retain a seat, leaving Guirke in a fight with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for the other two seats in this hotly contested three-seat constituency.
  • Wexford: Now a four-seat constituency, Johnny Mythen will hope his large vote in 2020 has not evaporated and he can see off the threat of Independents and Fine Gael.
  • Tipperary South: Sinn Féin TD Martin Browne faces strong competition from Fianna Fáil for the third seat in this three-seat constituency.
  • Dublin Bay South: With Fine Gael assured of a seat, one of the four TDs will lose out so Chris Andrews will need to maintain most of the gains he made in 2020.
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