Counting is in its second day across the country – and each constituency has its own backdrop of political intrigue and turf wars, while playing its role in the national picture. The Irish Times is monitoring key races – the contests that will tell the story of the count as the 34th Dáil is pulled together. Keep track of the most important moments that matter below. Follow live news updates here.
Nail biter in Dublin Central ends as Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch loses out
The highest-stakes and highest-profile race has ended, with gangland criminal Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch, losing out on a Dáil seat to Labour’s Marie Sherlock.
It was a nail biting count, with Hutch receiving 3,098 first preference votes, or almost a tenth of the vote in the first count.
The vote put him fourth in the four-seater constituency behind three sitting TDs – Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, Fine Gael Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe and Social Democrats TD Gary Gannon. But he ultimately lost out to Sherlock as she benefited from transfers.
The distribution of Donohoe’s surplus was the deciding factor in Sherlock winning the final seat in the eleventh count, following his election to the third seat in the constituency.
Hutch, who has been named by the Garda as the head of an organised crime group, was met by a media scrum on his arrival at the Dublin Central count centre on Sunday afternoon. Asked by reporters why he thought so many people voted for him, he said: “Because they want change... all types of change.”
Observers initially gave Hutch little chance, but he secured a large following in the north inner city, where he comes from, and picked up significant support in other areas.
Election surprises
Every election has its fair share of surprises - as it stands, some of these may not pan out, so health warnings apply. But here’s some things that caught our eye as we head through the afternoon of Day 2
Gerry Hutch’s first preference vote
By now it looks like Marie Sherlock will reel Hutch in Dublin Central after a gripping contest. The eliminations and transfers haven’t really surprised in the constituency (aside from a healthy PBP transfer to Gary Gannon, which changed things on Saturday night and opened a path for Sherlock), but what wasn’t predicted was the first preference vote (3,098) for Hutch which kept him in the running right to the death. What was behind this? Gary Gannon says this was a cry for help from the inner city; others believe the media have questions to answer. Either way, it was something nobody predicted, and it almost delivered a shock nobody inside the bubble was predicting.
Aontú's new seat (maybe)
Peadar Toibin has been telling anyone who would listen that Aontú were in growth mode, and the 2024 general election has proved this. At a bare minimum, it will now qualify for state funding after getting more than two per cent of first preference votes. But the chatter was on adding seats - and while it fell short of targets in Wexford and Dublin West (it’s too early to call in Cavan-Monaghan, which is trailing every other constituency in counting). It’s best bet as of mid-afternoon Sunday was in Mayo, where Paul Lawless was ahead by a nose from Independent Patsy O’Brien. This could be the Aontú breakthrough.
Social Democrats bolters
The party could well break double figures, and is in contention in loads of places that would be seen as non-starters, holding marginal seats, and topping the poll in safe seats like Dublin Bay North. It is hanging tough in counts up and down the country, but few if any would have had it outlasting the Greens, the second Fine Gael candidate and Independent Kate O’Connell in Dublin Bay South, where its candidate Eoin Mills looks to be getting very close to taking out Sinn Féin veteran Chris Andrews.
High profile Independents fall flat
Midway through the campaign, it looked like a cantankerous electorate might gravitate towards Independents - with a four point bump sending them to 20 per cent in our first poll of the campaign. But while the likes of Kevin Boxer Moran looks likely to return to the Dáil, other high profile Independents hoping for another shot after sitting out the last term have fallen flat: Mick Wallace, Alan Shatter and Kate O’Connell all sank without a trace. Among the class of 2020, Marian Harkin is in a battle for survival, and high profile Kildare South Independent Cathal Berry has lost his seat. There’ll be no shortage of Independents in the next Dáil - and it looks like they’ll have a role during talks on government formation - but Independents Day this ain’t.
No seat for Ossian Smyth
Despite a chink of light around the exit poll result, the Greens were clearly in deep trouble from early on, and nowhere was this more apparent than in comfortable Dún Laoighaire, where the Greens junior minister Ossian Smyth was out before midnight on Saturday. This, along with Roderic O’Gorman’s Dublin West seat, were the strongest hopes for the Greens. The fact he wasn’t even in a fight tells its own story.
Fianna Fáil changing of the guard in Galway East
Anne Rabbitte, with her straightforward, plain-speaking style was an unusual Minister of State who won her fair share of enemies as well as friends. But few would have expected her to lose out, even as the heat came on over the campaign in her particular brief of disabilities. Even moreso to the fresh-faced Albert Dolan (who turned 26 on Sunday) - but maybe this is the sign of a coming force, with breathless comparisons being made to Simon Harris’ trajectory by some - or even more incredibly, to Barack Obama. Gosh.
Fingal East
The Sinn Féin result here looks more like something from 2020, with Swords-based Anne Graves right in the heel of the hunt for a seat after losing her council seat earlier on this year. She could only muster 6.4 per cent of the first preference vote in the locals. She got 14.4 per cent on Friday and looks set to take a seat at the expense of Fine Gael stalwart Alan Farrell, who was thought to be comfortably on a seat after the constituency redraw. That is a major upset few would have predicted.
How the incumbent Independents are doing
With the possibility that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could rely on Independents to form a government, here’s a quick round-up of how the non-party incumbents are doing.
Michael Lowry, the controversial former Fine Gael minister, has topped the poll again in Tipperary North. He was one of the most reliable Independents in terms of voting with the Government in the last Dáil.
Galway East TD Seán Canney has been re-elected and is a possible option for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael should they need Independents to shore up support. He was previously a junior minister between 2016 and 2020.
In Galway West left-wing Independent Catherine Connolly – a frequent critic of the outgoing Government – looks set for a return to the Dáil. Her constituency rival and fellow Independent Noel Grealish on the other hand often voted with the last Coalition. He is well placed to retain his seat.
Former Defence Forces officer Cathal Berry – another Independent who frequently backed the last Government – looks set to lose his Kildare South seat. Independent Ireland leader Michael Collins topped the poll in Cork South-West and is comfortably back in the Dáil. Party colleague Richard O’Donoghue is also over the line in Limerick County.
Both TDs were staunch critics of the last Government.
Another Independent Ireland TD, Michael Fitzmaurice, has retained his Dáil seat in Roscommon-Galway.
Wexford Independent Verona Murphy will be back in Leinster House after topping the poll in her constituency.
Rural Independent group member Mattie McGrath has been re-elected in Tipperary South, and another member of the group, Carol Nolan, has been re-elected in Offaly. Waterford Independent Matt Shanahan is facing an uphill battle to hang on to his seat, and Marian Harkin is also in a scrap to be re-elected in Sligo-Leitrim.
Left-wing independent Thomas Pringle is in a dogfight to hold his seat in Donegal.
Kerry Independent Michael Healy-Rae has been re-elected with a whopping first preference vote of 18,596. His brother Danny Healy-Rae is also expected to be elected. They were often fierce critics of the last Government, particularly the Green Party element of it.
Could they do a deal with a new government – like their father Jackie famously did with former taoiseach Bertie Ahern – in return for their support?
Dublin Mid-West
Sinn Féin is going to hold two seats in Dublin Mid-West - that has been clear for some time. But could it be a Dáil return for former Green TD Paul Gogarty? He is just marginally outside the seats, with Emer Higgins odds on for the third seat, presuming Vicki Casserly fades away without transfers and gives her the votes she needs.
With Gino Kenny (PBP) struggling, it looks like a three-way scrap for two seats between Gogarty, Fianna Fáil’s Shane Moynihan – and in a move that could return two TDs with the same name in the same constituency – Social Democrats’ Eoin Ó Broin.
Dublin Bay South turns to the ‘soft left’
Dublin Bay South could be a gain for the Social Democrats, meaning that constituency will return two ‘soft left’ candidates again, with Eoin Hayes stepping into the seat vacated by Eamon Ryan and unsuccessfully defended by former lord mayor Hazel Chu.
The success of another former Dublin lord mayor James Geoghegan in regaining a Fine Gael seat here means someone in the seats had to lose out, and it looks like it’ll be Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews.
Hutch and Sherlock come down to the wire
There will be reams written about this race in the days to come – but Marie Sherlock’s chances of taking the fourth seat in Dublin Central from the grasp of Gerry Hutch have increased, despite his commanding lead this morning.
His transfers have dried up, and she has taken big chunks out of his lead. It’s all going to come down to Mary Fitzpatrick’s elimination. This is now way too close to call but the momentum has shifted to the Labour woman – will it be decisive?
Sunday’s key constituencies
It’s the second day of the count – less of the manic energy of Day 1, but grinding tension abounds as key races determine the shape of the next Dáil, the next government, and the political future of heavy hitters. Here’s some nail-biters we’ll be watching today.
Dublin Central is probably the race of the election - but we’ve covered that off elsewhere.
Wicklow, where Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly is fighting for his seat, is a key swing for government formation. On current expectations, Donnelly will lose out as Fine Gael and gene-pool votes gather behind Edward Timmins, who looks set to take the seat courtesy of Simon Harris’s surplus and transfers from Shay Cullen. Maybe we shouldn’t rule Cullen out either? But certainly the odds are against Donnelly continuing his 13-year Dáil career. His best chance is to suck up more Harris transfers than might otherwise be expected.
Dublin Bay North is another potential swing when determining the balance of power between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Currently, both will take a seat, but it looks like there could be a second government seat here if Aoibhinn Tormey (FG) and Deirdre Heney (FF) can stay ahead of Micheál MacDonncha (SF) Independent Barry Heneghan – over whom they have a good cushion.
Mayo, where hopes of a second Fianna Fáil seat have been extinguished with the exit of Senator Lisa Chambers, could provide a surprise second seat for Aontú through Paul Lawless. He is in a chasing pack with Mark Duffy and Keira Keogh (both FG), one of whom will take a seat, and Independent Patsy O’Brien.
There have been mutterings about Charlie McConalogue’s (FF) seat in Donegal from early on Saturday – it’s currently hard to see how he gets into trouble, with two Fine Gael candidates below him for transfers and an 1,100 vote buffer to Charles Ward of the 100 per cent Redress party, and more again to Independent TD Thomas Pringle. But we haven’t had many counts there so, let’s keep an eye on the Minister for Agriculture’s fate.
Fianna Fáil will take two seats in Carlow-Kilkenny and are in with a chance of a third – again this would be a gain for the party that could be important when Micheál Martin and Simon Harris sit down to assess the scores on the doors. There’s likely a Fine Gael seat there and both Sinn Féin candidates have polled giving a good chance of holding Kathleen Funchion’s seat. Watch where Malcolm Noonan’s vote goes though when the sitting Green junior minister is eliminated, which may shake things up again.
Dublin West is the last redoubt of the Green Party where Roderic O’Gorman is said to be picking up some of Paul Donnelly’s surplus, interestingly. He’ll take any votes he can get to keep his lead over John Walsh of Labour and Aontú's Ellen Troy. PBP’s Ruth Coppinger could see her lead reeled in a bit, and the fight for the last two seats could get lively indeed.
It looks like Labour and the Social Democrats will be duking it out in Limerick City, where former mayoral race adversaries Elisa O’Donovan (SD) and Conor Sheehan (Lab) are separated by a little under 300 votes in Elisa’s favour.
Cavan-Monaghan was the last constituency to fill its seats in 2020 and they are in no rush this year either, completing its first count after midday on Sunday. The first count suggests Sinn Féin could be in the hunt for three seats.
More FG incumbency battles
Welcome back to our key race alerts live story this Sunday morning. The first thing we are going to look at today are the Fine Gael incumbency battles.
Earlier we looked at some seats where Fine Gael is defending without an incumbent on board – having lost 18 TDs to retirement in this cycle. We’ll cover off the rest of those constituencies now we have first counts in – and check back in on holds or losses later.
Dublin Bay North is looking like a safe hold for Fine Gael, with Naoise Ó'Muiri in the fourth seat as it stands and a strong performance from his running mate Aoibheann Tormey, who took 5,313 first preference votes.
Meath West is a battle and a half, with Linda Nelson Murray chasing a 300-odd vote deficit to Fianna Fáil’s Aisling Murray, and Noel French (FG gene pools) preferences now being distributed.
In Laois, Willie Aird will hold the old Charlie Flanagan seat.
In Mayo, Alan Dillon will hold his own seat and Mark Duffy and Keira Keogh will secure the old Michael Ring seat between them.
There will be a Fine Gael seat in Cork North West (home of the Kanturk incident).
In Cork South Central, Fine Gael have been bumped down the pecking order by the performance of the Social Democrats’ Pádraig Rice, but Jerry Buttimer should hold Simon Coveney’s old seat.
Paul Kehoe’s old Wexford seat looks like it could be a loss. Cathal Byrne has a huge gap of more than 1,000 votes to make up to George Lawlor of Labour. Lawlor is not expected to transfer too strongly, and Byrne has a running mate in Bridín Murphy - but there was tension between the pair over the campaign.
In Galway East, Pete Roche is in the fight for Ciarán Cannon’s old seat, and has two running mates behind him to put the wind in his sails - although Independent Ireland’s Declan Geraghy is uncomfortably close, for now.
We have no counts yet in Clare or Carlow-Kilkenny, but Joe Cooney is shaping strongly on tallies in the former. In Carlow-Kilkenny, three Fianna Fáil candidates are bunched at the top but Catherine Callaghan is in the fourth seat, based off the tallies, with 9.7 per cent of the vote. She will be helped, potentially, by two Fine Gael running mates who have a combined first preference of around 9,000 votes.
How are parties faring where TDs have bowed out?
While Fine Gael had the most retirements among its TDs, they were not the only ones to bow out before this general election.
So will the various parties hold the seats in places where the incumbents are not contesting?
Here’s a quick round-up of how things are going.
Fianna Fáil is hoping to retain Seán Haughey’s seat in Dublin Bay North and is on course to return at least one TD, possibly two. Tom Brabazon is ahead of running mate Deirdre Heney. Both are potentially in the mix to be elected. It would be a major coup for the party if it got two TDs here.
Another Fianna Fáil retirement was Jackie Cahill in Tipperary. Both Ryan O’Meara and Michael Smith are in the running to take the third seat there on the basis of the final tally. It looks like it could be a hold for Fianna Fáil.
Outgoing Galway West TD Éamon Ó Cuív is the other Fianna Fáil retirement. At this point it is difficult to know how the contenders to hold his seat – Grainne Seoige and John Connolly – are faring.
The first count has been delayed and there were issues with the tally. It would be a surprise if there is not a Fianna Fáil seat in Galway West.
The two former co-leaders of the Social Democrats – Catherine Murphy and Róisín Shortall – are not contesting the election in Kildare North and Dublin North-West respectively.
Aidan Farrelly is thought to be in contention to retain the seat in Kildare North on the basis of tallies.
Rory Hearne is currently second in Dublin North-West and looking likely to be elected.
Former Labour leader Brendan Howlin has retired. His party colleague George Lawlor was in fourth place after the second count and was more than 2,000 votes ahead of the next contender. He looks highly likely to hold the seat for Labour.
A boundary re-draw of his Cork East constituency prompted Labour’s Seán Sherlock to leave politics.
There is no Labour candidate in that constituency but there is two in the five-seat Cork North Central – where a chunk of Cork East was moved to, including Sherlock’s hometown of Mallow.
Eoghan Kenny and John Maher were in seventh and tenth place respectively after the second count. It is not impossible that Labour could nab a seat here.
A tale of two independents
It has been a tale of the contrasting fortunes of two high-profile Independents in Wexford. Verona Murphy triumphed and was elected on the first count with 11,340 votes.
Mick Wallace, meanwhile, is facing elimination having secured 1,615 votes. It was a far cry from 2011 when the pink T-shirt wearing former builder topped the poll and entered the Dáil. He was re-elected in 2016 before winning a seat in the European Parliament in 2019.
Wallace lost his seat in June’s European Election. He entered the general election race late saying he was putting his name forward because he had been one of the few people in the Dáil who knew anything about housing. His absence from local politics in Wexford over the last five years appears not to have done him any favours.
Murphy on the other hand, the former president of the Irish Road Haulage Association, began her political career in the 2019 byelection caused by Wallace’s departure for Europe in an unsuccessful run for Fine Gael.
She ran as an Independent in 2020 and took a seat. Four and a half years later she has a team of local Independent councillors and has been comfortably re-elected. As one Independent empire in the southeast fades another continues to rise.
Local issues paying off for Brian Stanley
Former Sinn Féin TD Brian Stanley said at the start of the months that he will have an “uphill battle” in his bid to be elected as an Independent. It is now looking like he will retain his seat, and comfortably enough at that.
Stanley had a massive falling out with Sinn Féin, quitting the party last month following an internal inquiry on the foot of a complaint against him.
He pressed ahead and ran in Laois as an “independent republican” against a Sinn Féin replacement candidate Maria McCormack. He was a good distance ahead of ahead of McCormack after the first count in Laois – with his 6,782 first-preference votes to her 4,914. He is well-placed to go on to take the last seat in the three-seater.
There was a good deal of support for him on the streets of Portlaoise when The Irish Times went there recently to see how his resignation from Sinn Féin had gone down locally.
While some wanted more answers about the circumstances of his departure from Sinn Féin, many people who spoke on and off the record in the town praised his work locally and indicated they would be backing him. This sentiment seems to be playing out now with Stanley on the cusp of returning to the Dáil.
In Laois it looks like support for a well-liked local TD, for many voters at least, is stronger than any party loyalty. It would not be the first time voters have rallied around a local politician caught up in a national controversy and it will not be the last.
Social Democrats - 10 is the magic number
The Social Democrats were ahead of the other smaller parties in the exit poll – on 5.8 per cent – and are expected to do well in several constituencies this weekend. So how are they doing in the six places they won seats in 2020 and where could they pick up more?
First of all, party leader Holly Cairns – who gave birth to a baby girl on election day – looks safe in Cork South-West. Deputy leader Cian O’Callaghan is also nailed on for a seat and is set to top the poll in Dublin Bay North.
Jennifer Whitmore is also doing well in Wicklow and Gary Gannon is looking like taking the third seat in Dublin Central – expect them to be back in the Dáil.
Former party co-leader Catherine Murphy is retiring and not contesting the election. She sounded positive about the prospect of Cllr Aidan Farrelly retaining her seat in Kildare North during a broadcast interview earlier. He was second on just under 15 per cent at one stage in the tallying earlier and is certainly in contention for a seat.
Rory Hearne is seeking to retain the Dublin North-West seat being vacated by another former co-leader Róisín Shortall in what is a tight three-seat constituency. With 100 per cent of the boxes tallied there he was on 14 per cent along with outgoing Fianna Fáil TD Paul McAuliffe and Sinn Féin councillor Cathleen Carney Boud.
This one will be a scrap but the Soc Dems look on course to retain at least five of their current seats with the possibility of keeping the sixth.
And the possible gains? Sinead Gibney appears to be doing well in Dublin Rathdown on 9 per cent in the tallies – one point ahead of Green Party Minister Catherine Martin whose seat is vulnerable. Liam Quaide, a Social Democrats councillor running in Cork East is still in the running for a seat, depending on transfers. Elsewhere in the rebel county Padraig Rice was doing well in Cork South-Central and is among five candidates vying for one of the final two seats there.
“The other Eoin Ó Broin” – the Soc Dems fella not the Sinn Féiner running in the same constituency – is in a dogfight for the fifth seat in Dublin Mid-West. At one point near the end of the tallying he was on 6.1 per cent – ahead of incumbent People Before Profit TD Gino Kenny (5.6 per cent) and Francis Timmons of Labour (5.2 per cent) but slightly behind Independent Paul Gogarty (6.9 per cent).
Elisa O’Donovan is doing well in Limerick City despite her name further down the ballot paper than it should have been due to an error. She was one of a number of candidates on 7 per cent in the final tally and fighting it out for the fourth and final seat along with Fine Gael’s Maria Byrne, Fianna Fáil’s Dee Ryan, and Conor Sheehan of Aontú.
O’Callaghan said at the party’s final press campaign press conference that the party was in the running in ten or more constituencies. He appears to have been correct in that assessment.
The Fine Gaelers in their heartlands
Every party has a key target list - but how are the big parties getting on in some constituencies where they wanted to add TDs in. Let’s take a look at Fine Gael at a few of Fine Gael’s strong targets.
- Dublin North West: The party was all at sea here until Simon Harris convinced former TD Noel Rock, who lost his seat in 2020, to take another shot at the Dáil. A complete tally showed Rock in fifth, with Sinn Féin splitting their vote well. Unless he can close the gap to Fianna Fáil’s McAuliffe, his government transfers may help his old enemy over the line when he goes out.
- Dublin South Central: Again, a Fine Gael target where Sinn Féin is performing really well with a combined 31 per cent of the tallied first preference vote across three candidates. Mary Seery-Kearney is a little adrift of the leading pack according to the quota, on eight per cent of first preference vote - behind Catherine Ardagh (FF), Jen Cummins (SD), Hazel de Nortún (PBP) and all three Sinn Féiners. She’ll do well to come into the final reckoning.
- Wexford-Wicklow: Is this the least loved, least glamorous, least exciting race of 2024? Maybe. Brian Brennan of Fine Gael won’t care, he looks odds-on for a seat, slightly ahead of Malcolm Byrne (FF) and Fionntain Ó Suilleabháin. Could be among the first people elected.
- Cork South-West: The popular Senator Tim Lombard is one of two Fine Gael candidates bidding to take a seat here - the other being Noel O’Donovan, who has outpolled him according to a near-complete tally. That tally has party leaders Michael Collins (II) and Holly Cairns (SD) looking likely to hold, and Christopher O’Sullivan has the edge on the old Fine Gael enemy too. Looking like an uphill struggle.
- Fingal West: Grace Boland has done pretty well here, crucially ahead of Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee for what might be the only government seat. Green Party Joe O’Brien’s transfers will be key - exit poll data suggests Green preferences favour Fine Gael over Fianna Fáil. Tony Murphy (Ind) looks to have a good vote - could he spoil the party, or seal the deal for someone above him
The war of independents
One of the enduring features of Irish politics is the Independent TD – in almost all other countries, these folks would be in political parties. And in Ireland, many of them once were – now they are stand-alone brands, presenting a headache for their former party colleagues. Let’s take a look at a few of the races they’re involved in
- Brian Stanley - ex SF - Laois: Until recently a high-profile backbencher and chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, Stanley left amid huge controversy after a complaint and counter complaint and resulting investigation by Sinn Féin. A final tally show’s he is in third position behind Willie Aird (FG) and Sean Fleming (FF), who look in strong position. Stanley is on 17.6 per cent – but his replacement in Sinn Féin, Maria McCormack, is on 12.5 per cent – not out of touch.
- Eugene Murphy - Roscommon-Galway - ex FF: A Fianna Fáil senator who jettisoned the party after failing to secure its nomination, Murphy has told RTÉ that he doesn’t think he is taking a seat with tallies showing him in fifth place
- Noel French - Meath West - ex FG: A Trim base councillor with a massive vote, the question is can he build outside his home base and sneak into the battle royale to claim Damien English’s old seat. He’s on 10 per cent – a good way adrift of the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, so he’ll do well to come into the reckoning.
- Gillian Toole - Meath East - ex FG: Toole left over water charges and is a long-time gone, but in the hunt for the extra fourth seat added to this constituency, she is there or thereabouts – currently in the final seat on the first tally. Of course, transfers will be vital, but Sharon Tolan (FG) and Emer Toibin (Aontú) have a good bit of ground to make up on Toole.
- Noel Thomas - Galway West - ex FF: One of two Fianna Fáil councillors who left the party following criticism of plans for asylum seeker accommodation in Oughterard. With almost all boxes counted, he is just outside the seats on first preferences – ahead of Gráinne Seoige, who looks firmly out of the running – although I don’t think that can be put down to the presence of Thomas.
- Carol Nolan - Offaly - ex Sinn Féin: Nolan left the party over its abortion stance in 2018, and she looks well on track to retain her seat with 22 per cent of the first preference vote in the tally. Sinn Féin’s Aoife Masterson was on 17 per cent in the tally, with Fine Gael’s John Clendennan also in the leading pack on 18 per cent.
- Violet-Anne Wynne - Clare - ex SF: Left the party with a volley of criticism, saying she had been subject to a campaign of “psychological warfare”. Has totally bombed in Clare, securing just a couple of hundred votes.
Yes, minister you may lose your seat
The conventional wisdom is that people love voting their local minister back in – and while this is often true, they also love giving them a kicking from time to time. There are, by our count, seven Ministers in a battle to survive.
We’ve already covered off Stephen Donnelly’s (Fianna Fáil) difficulties in Wicklow. That tally has completed and Donnelly has edged ahead of Edward Timmins (FG), so he’s looking a bit healthier – but he is far from safe.
We’ve also had our first ministerial concession, with the Green Party’s Joe O’Brien (Greens) admitting his Fingal East seat is gone. He was always in a battle, but with the Green tide this far out, he had no hope.
Anne Rabbitte (Fianna Fáil) is not a name many people would have had as struggling before today, but in this four-seater, she is still 5,300 votes short of a quota with the tally almost complete. Her party colleague Albert Dolan has strongly outpolled her, and she is behind Independent Seán Canney, Independent Ireland’s Declan Geraghty, Sinn Féin’s Louis O’Hara and Fine Gael’s Pete Roche.
Roderic O’Gorman (Greens) is potentially the only Green survivor. We wouldn’t have been saying that last night when the exit poll figures came through. He is crucially ahead of Labour’s John Walsh by just over 400 votes.
Dublin Rathdown, and its antecedent constituency of Dublin South, is no stranger to booting out a minister, as Shane Ross, Alex White and Alan Shatter can attest. Catherine Martin (Greens) is adrift of the leading pack with the tally complete in Dublin Rathdown, where Neale Richmond, Maeve O’Connell (both FG) and Shay Brennan (FF) are out in front. Martin is bunched with Sinéad Gibney (SD) and Michael Fleming (Ind) with fewer than 200 votes between them.
Ossian Smyth (Greens), as we wrote previously, has Hugo Mills right on his shoulder in Dún Laoghaire and is some distance from the seats, with Sinn Féin’s Shane O’Brien between him and the leading pack.
What of Sinn Féin’s 2020 poll-toppers
One of the big stories of 2020 was Sinn Féin’s surge. The strength and the weakness of the party’s strategy last time out was captured in their poll toppers - huge votes that left seats behind due to not running enough candidates. Let’s have a look at a few of these poll-toppers fortunes’ this time out.
- Donegal - Pearse Doherty: Romping home again with a big surplus, with running mate Pádraig MacLochlainn following him in second place. A third seat still looks a stretch, with a big gap to Noel Jordan and a very busy field involving Fine Gael, the Mica redress candidate and sitting Independent Thomas Pringle.
- Sligo-Leitrim - Martin Kenny: Kenny is tallying in second place behind Frank Feighan (FG), but his running mate Chris MacManus is going fairly well, currently in third position in this four seater on first preference tallies.
- Cavan-Monaghan - Matt Carthy: Comfortably in front as the tallies roll in, with his county compatriot Cllr Cathy Bennett tucked in behind him. On the Cavan side of the divide, Pauline Tully TD is in fifth overall in this five seater.
- Louth - Imelda Munster: Taking a swing down the east coast, Imelda Munster is not running again. But her replacement Joanna Byrne is in a strong position to top the poll pulling from the Drogheda end of the constituency, whereas Ruairí Ó Murchú was always a banker out of Dundalk. A third will be a big ask here with Antóin Watters pretty geographically constrained on the Cooley peninsula.
- Fingal - Louise O’Reilly: Now split in two, Sinn Féin look like they may add a seat in both West (O’Reilly) and East (Anne Graves) - but the second one is not a sure thing, where Graves is locked in a tussle with.
- Meath East - Darren O’Rourke: Comfortably in the running and looking pretty likely to hold his seat. A second seat here was always a stretch and Maria White looks like she’d have to overhaul the second Fine Gaeler (Sharon Tolan), a strong Independent (Gillian Toole) and Aontú's Emer Toibin to come into the running.
- Meath West - Johnny Guirke: Guirke falls into a particular category - poll toppers with whopping votes in 2020 who attained no significant national profile. Could this harm him in a tightly fought race? Well, eh, not really! The final tally has him on 23 per cent and Peadar Tóibín coming in second, unexpectedly. The scrap here is for the last seat, and Guirke seems well clear of it.
- Longford-Westmeath - Sorca Clarke: The extra seat may help Clarke here, who won’t top the poll - that looks like it’ll fall to Peter Burke, shaking off the Michael O’Leary controversy from early in the campaign. Robert Troy, Micheál Carrigy and Kevin Boxer Moran are in front of her, but she’s not out of touch by any manner or means. We’ll return to this later and have a look at how Sinn Féin’s 2020 Dublin poll toppers are faring.
Ireland has had its fill of anti-immigration candidates
A year ago, it looked like immigration was going to be a defining issue for this election – but it seemed to reach a high watermark just around the local elections and then recede in relevance for voters. Our exit poll found that just 6 per cent of voters said immigration was most important to them when heading to the polls. A slew of candidates are running primarily on the issue of migration – but how are they getting on?
- Cllr Malachy Steenson in Dublin Central was not looking strong for one of four seats, with 4.9 per cent of the tally.
- Derek Blighe of Ireland First tallied just 4 per cent of first preferences in Cork North Central and was well adrift of the five seats on offer.
- Cllr Gavin Pepper looks to be in similar shape in Dublin North West, tallying at about 6 per cent, and not in the running in the three seater
- Phil Sutcliffe is on just 2 per cent in Dublin South Central where Sinn Féin has rallied in a big way. He won’t have been helped by his very visible support for Conor McGregor.
- Philip Dwyer has bombed in Wicklow, securing less than 1 per cent of the vote with almost all boxes open.
Fine Gael’s long list of goodbyes
One of the major questions heading into this election was how Fine Gael would defend a whopping 18 seats without the benefit of incumbency. Let’s take a whirl around a few and see how they’re getting on:
In Kerry, where Brendan Griffin stood down, there’s a third of the tally in. Fine Gael ran just one candidate – former Kerry footballer Billy O’Shea, and he is duking it out with Fianna Fáil’s second candidate Michael Cahill, on 10.8 per cent and 10.2 per cent.
In Donegal, the Fine Gael vote is down, as it seeks to hold on to Joe McHugh’s seat – and both its candidates are some way outside the seats during the tally, with Sinn Féin predictably leading the way and Fianna Fáil in the hunt for two seats. Fine Gael have a lot to do here to come into the reckoning.
In Cavan-Monaghan, David Maxwell looks likely to hold on to Heather Humphreys’ seat.
Holding two in Dublin-Rathdown is a key target for Fine Gael, where Maeve O’Connell is hoping to hold on to Josepha Madigan’s seat. With all boxes open, she has her nose in front of Fianna Fáil’s Shay Brennan. But with a lot of candidates bunched together on between 6 and 9 per cent, there could be some volatility below her which she will hope to avoid.
Emer Currie looks set to hold in Dublin West, Leo Varadkar’s old seat.
John McGahon, caught up in campaign trail controversy, is trailing in Louth where Simon Harris effectively removed his endorsement late in the race. But a lot of those boxes are from the Drogheda end of the constituency, not his heartland in Dundalk.
Cork East, where Mark Stanton is hoping to defend his father David’s seat, is tightly bunched at the moment with six candidates on between 10 and 12 per cent of first preferences with a little more than half the boxes tallied. Stanton is among them, on 12 per cent, with running mate Noel McCarthy on 11 per cent. We’ll check back in on the other constituencies in a while.
Who needs enemies when you have friends like Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael?
The battle for primacy between the Civil War parties is going to be a ground war – the path looks clear for a government based on a coalition between the two, but their candidates are fighting it out between themselves – and against others – in a way that could decide who holds the upper hand. Some races to watch:
In Fingal East, Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell was predicted to take a seat comfortably alongside Fianna Fáil’s Darragh O’Brien. While the Minister for Housing is sitting pretty, Farrell (14.4 per cent) is marginally behind Labour’s Duncan Smith (14.5 per cent) and Sinn Féin’s Anne Graves (14.6 per cent). Aontú, Independents4Change, and Green transfers will come into play soon, with Joan Hopkins of the Social Democrats still in touch.
Across the border in Fingal West, Fine Gael’s Grace Boland and Fianna Fáil’s Lorraine Clifford Lee are polling close to each other with all boxes open. But they trail Louise O’Reilly of Sinn Féin and Labour’s Robert O’Donoghue, who the party heavily tipped for a seat. If there’s only one government seat here, one of the pair of Boland and Clifford Lee look likely to miss out.
Fianna Fáil are looking to add a seat in Clare, where Timmy Dooley is out in front with 21 per cent with more than half the tally in, while Cathal Crowe is on 9 per cent. Fine Gael’s Joe Cooney (14.9 per cent) is ahead of party colleague Leonora Carey (8.4 per cent), with Fianna Fáil comfortably ahead of Fine Gael on first preferences as it stands.
In Galway West, Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne (10.6 per cent) is ahead of party colleague, the super junior minister Hildegarde Naughton (8.3 per cent) with a little more than half boxes tallied. John Connolly is comfortably outpolling celebrity candidate Gráinne Seoige who is currently outside the seats.
In Louth, with a third of boxes tallied, John McGahon (who was ensnared in a campaign controversy over a fight he was involved in outside a pub several years ago) is trailing both his own party colleague Paula Butterly and both Fianna Fáil candidates Erin McGreehan and Alison Comyn. Early boxes tallied seemed to be from Drogheda though, with McGahon’s base in Dundalk.
O’Gorman scrapping for his own seat as Greens grow despondent
On the eve of the election, the Greens’ mood was growing increasingly despondent. There was a glimmer of hope for them in the exit poll on Friday night, having them on 4 per cent nationally. But everywhere you looked on Saturday morning, tallies were not favourable for the party, including in its heartlands.
In Dublin West, with almost all boxes open, Roderic O’Gorman (6.5 per cent) had his nose in front of John Walsh of the Labour Party (5.6 per cent). But with Fianna Fáil’s Jack Chambers (20.9 per cent) and Sinn Féin’s Paul Donnelly (17.1 per cent) looking strong, and Fine Gael’s Emer Currie odds on to hold Leo Varadkar’s old seat (15.2 per cent). But Ruth Coppinger was going well on 8.6 per cent, making her early favourite to take the fourth seat, leaving O’Gorman scrapping for the last.
In Dún Laoghaire, Ossian Smyth is a bellwether for the entire party’s fortunes – probably even more so than O’Gorman. He will be looking very nervously at the Social Democrats’ Hugo Mills, tallying just 105 votes behind the Green in a strong performance.
In Dublin South Central, where the party was hopeful of holding on to Patrick Costello’s seat, he is holding just 6 per cent of the vote in the tally, making it hard to see him coming home. Ditto Neasa Hourigan across the river in Dublin Central. Steven Matthews is struggling in Wicklow, with Marc Ó Cathasaigh on 3 per cent in Waterford.
Hazel Chu is also facing a big battle to keep Eamon Ryan’s seat in Dublin Bay South where he topped the poll in 2020.
It looks like a dark day for the Greens.
‘Big beast’ Donnelly in one hell of a scrap
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin went down the N11 to Wicklow on the last day of campaigning, in a bid to shore up support for Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly in what was always going to be an absolute bear pit, with five TDs seeking four seats in a shrunken constituency.
Donnelly is in one hell of a scrap. With 53 per cent of boxes open, he had 6.4 per cent of the vote. This has him just behind the second Fine Gael candidate, Edward Timmins, on 6.6 per cent. The Green Party’s Steven Matthews looked doomed on just under 4 per cent, trailing the Fine Gael gene-pool Independent Shay Cullen (4.8 per cent).
If we assume (and on these numbers it looks likely enough) that Taoiseach Simon Harris, Sinn Féin’s John Brady and the Social Democrats’ Jennifer Whitmore are heading back to the Dáil (30.1 per cent, 13.8 per cent, 13.7 per cent), then Donnelly will have to get ahead of Timmins and hope for a favour from Harris’s surplus, and that Cullen’s presumed elimination doesn’t favour Timmins too heavily. Independent Joe Behan, a former Fianna Fáil TD, was on 5.6 per cent, so perhaps some Fianna Fáil-leaning votes might come home to Donnelly – but remember, many view him as Fianna Fáil in name only.
