Fine Gael will insist on “parity of esteem” with Fianna Fáil as a basic condition in any coalition agreement, despite a 10-seat gap between the two parties.
Senior figures in Fine Gael are nervous that Fianna Fáil, now the largest party in the Dáil, will squeeze its likely partner in negotiations on a new programme for government expected to commence in coming weeks.
“Parity of esteem is the glue that keeps a coalition together,” said one senior Fine Gael figure.
The election 2024 count was completed late last night after Cavan-Monaghan called final results. Fianna Fáil won the most seats (48), followed by Sinn Féin (39), Fine Gael (38), Labour (11), Social Democrats (11), Independents (21), People Before Profit Solidarity (3), Aontú (2) and the Green Party (1).
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[ Election 2024 - the full results Opens in new window ]
It is thought a continuation of the rotating taoiseach arrangement and near parity in cabinet – perhaps an 8-7 split between the two parties – will be red lines for Fine Gael, though the party may well be willing to concede to Fianna Fáil on some key appointments, such as the ceann comhairle’s position and the next nominee to the European Commission.
Fianna Fáil played down any talk of the details of future deal-making as premature, with one senior source noting two leaders had not yet spoken since the election – though both will travel to Edinburgh on Friday for a meeting of the British-Irish Council, also due to be attended by the British prime minister Keir Starmer.
There is a growing sense in both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael that their chances of persuading Labour to join a coalition are not high, though both Alan Kelly and Ged Nash, party heavyweights re-elected in Tipperary North and Louth yesterday, gave strong signals that Labour should seriously consider government.
“If you want to make this country better,” Mr Nash told supporters at the count centre, “you need to be in government”.
But there are signs of two camps in Labour, with one party figure asserting it would be “madness” to enter coalition.
There is anxiety among some in Labour that the Social Democrats could sit out a potential stint in government and grow at the expense of the Labour Party if difficult decisions need to be made in the coming years.
Any discussions between Labour and Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael would have to get over a serious stumbling block on the most contentious policy issue of housing.
Sources in Fianna Fáil have indicated the party is prepared to dig in on subsidies for buyers – like Help to Buy or the shared equity First Home scheme – which both the Social Democrats and Labour have promised to phase out or replace, but which the outgoing government made a cornerstone of its housing policy.
“They’re not changing, they’re things we will not change,” they said, arguing they give buyers certainty and are by now well bedded-in. “It is red line territory.”
There is a growing focus on Independents who might be prepared to support the coalition.
Tipperary North Independent TD Michael Lowry indicated he was open to supporting the next government saying: “I have always been open to acting decisively and having a role”.
He said: “I’m not interested in self-preferment. I’m interested in being in a position where I can have access to deliver on constituency issues.”
He added there are several Independents in the same position.
The leader of the Independent Ireland party, Cork South-West TD Michael Collins said his “door is going to be open regardless of whoever comes knocking as long as there’s a genuine attempt to form a government” and to look at its policies.
Protecting the national cattle herd and lowering the VAT rate for the hospitality sector are among key issues for the party.
Meanwhile Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has been in contact with the leaders of the Social Democrats and the Labour Party about possible talks.
Sinn Féin TD Eoin Ó Broin said, however, that “the outcome of the election is now clear” and that “the numbers are there for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to form a government together” which he said would be “the worst possible outcome for the people of the country”.
Sinn Féin politicians and advisers met on Monday afternoon to discuss the election results and the wider parliamentary party will meet on Wednesday.
Within Sinn Féin, there has been increased speculation around the future of leader Mary Lou McDonald, but also an attempt internally to rally around her.
Three sources told The Irish Times believe Ms McDonald would have the backing of the party to stay another five years if she wanted to, though others acknowledged speculation about the party leadership.
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