Sources close to talks on formation of the next administration say the programme for government charting a direction for the next coalition is almost complete.
This follows a weekend of intensive talks between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael negotiators and with Independent TDs, from the regional group and the Healy-Rae brothers.
Negotiators have been working through various policy areas for the past week, amalgamating the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil manifestos and translating them into a draft programme. Following requests from the party leaders, the process accelerated into the weekend, with rolling sessions continuing on Sunday evening in the hope the process would be concluded by Monday.
[ Healy-Rae brothers to seek ministerial role in return for backing next governmentOpens in new window ]
An agreed programme clears the way for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to commence their respective ratification processes which sources now say should be completed in time for the Dáil meeting scheduled for Wednesday week, January 22nd.
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That would enable Micheál Martin to be elected taoiseach for the second time with support from his party, Fine Gael and whatever Independents have signed up to support and participate in the new administration. He would then name his coalition cabinet — including Simon Harris as tánaiste and almost certainly minister for foreign affairs — and the new government would take office that evening, less than two months after the general election and two days after Donald Trump becomes president of the United States again on January 20th.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael sources say they expect an agreement to be finalised, if not on Monday, then before a scheduled meeting of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party on Wednesday.
Once the text is agreed upon, the two parties will trigger their ratification procedures — in Fianna Fáil’s case a special ardfheis likely to be held next Sunday at a Dublin venue; and in Fine Gael’s, five regional meetings at which votes will be taken among party members. Votes will also be taken among the Fine Gael parliamentary party and, separately, among its councillors.
In both cases, the ratification processes are required by the parties’ rules and are a foregone conclusion — neither would reject a plan to enter government brought by its leader.
But while the universal expectation is that the two parties will proceed to form the next government with Independents, significant uncertainties remain.
Government formation: what's happening behind the scenes
Not least on whether there will be one or two groups of Independents as part of the government. Michael Healy-Rae and his brother Danny attended talks in Government Buildings on Saturday evening but will not decide whether to take the plunge until they see a completed draft of the agreement — and have the crucial conversation with the party leaders about potential ministerial jobs.
Government sources confirm a junior ministerial post could be part of the deal, but the Healy-Raes are likely to push for a super junior post — a junior ministerial role but with the right to sit at cabinet, a step down from a full cabinet minister’s job but a level above a normal junior minister’s job. The Kerry TDs are also likely to seek several assurances about capital projects in their constituency.
Once the programme for government document is agreed upon, the focus of the deal-making will also shift to filling jobs. The Independents are understood to have targeted a Cabinet appointment and three junior ministerial posts, though Government thinking suggests one super-junior and two junior jobs. These details are unlikely to be hammered out yet, however. Though the finishing line is in sight, there’s plenty of wrangling yet to come.
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