Almost everyone in these islands agrees that a lack of planning for the “Leave” option in the UK’s Brexit referendum led to disastrous consequences.
An array of “soft Brexits” waged battle with various “hard Brexits”. Calls to re-run the UK’s 2016 referendum on its membership of the European Union were common. The UK economy stagnated. Its domestic politics became poisonous.
One possible lesson of this experience for debates about our “national question” is that planning carefully for the possibility of unification in future referendums would seem wise.
The argument is that if Irish unification wins in the referendums then adequate preparation will radically increase the chances of a legitimate, efficient and peaceful transfer of sovereignty.
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But another possible lesson of the Brexit experience is to avoid referendums on complex questions.
In addition, many opponents of Irish unification believe that the very act of preparing for the possibility of Irish unity should be opposed because it may make unity more likely. They fear planning will condition people into thinking that Irish unification is inevitable.
Others, who favour unification, argue that planning is premature. Some say that referendums and planning should be preceded by the stabilisation of Northern Ireland or by thoroughgoing reconciliation inside the North (thresholds not specified in the Good Friday Agreement).
Attitudes
What do the public think?
The ARINS/Irish Times surveys clarify the current views of the public, North and South, on possible planning for unification.
Respondents were asked to indicate how important two aims were for them: “planning for the possibility of a united Ireland” and “achieving a united Ireland”. They could pick on a scale from zero to 10, where zero meant “I do not think this is important at all” and 10 meant that “I think this is extremely important”.
In the South, the two aims were prioritised almost equally. Two-thirds chose a response between six and 10 for both questions, indicating both are considered fairly or extremely important.
Regarding planning, 23 per cent picked the highest number on the scale. A similar proportion indicated that achieving unity was ‘extremely important’ (20 per cent).
Compared to the South, the public in the North placed less priority on achieving unity.
But they placed much greater importance on planning for its possibility: 15 per cent of Northerners said it was “extremely important” to achieve unity, but almost two-and-a-half times more said that planning for the possibility of unity was “extremely important” (36 per cent).
Moreover, just over one-third in the North (35 per cent) said that achieving unity ranked between six and 10 on the scale whereas three-fifths (60 per cent) said so on planning for possible unification.
Different rankings of planning for and achieving unification emerge when one breaks down the results by religious background.
More than half (53 per cent) of Northern Catholics indicated that planning was “extremely important” while just three in 10 (30 per cent) said that achieving unity is “extremely important”.
Most interestingly, one in five Northern Protestants gave the highest possible priority (“extremely important”) to planning for the possibility of unity, even though few of them thought it should happen.
[ Support for Irish unification growing in Northern Ireland, poll finds ]
Almost two-fifths (38 per cent) of Northern Protestants chose between six and 10 on the importance of planning for the possibility of unity, over five times more than those who chose between six and 10 on achieving a united Ireland.
Regarding “Others” in the North, 70 per cent attached importance to planning (choosing scores between six and 10), including over one-third for whom it was “extremely important” to plan for the possibility of unification (36 per cent). Just one in three “Others” in the North attached high importance to achieving a united Ireland, including 6 per cent who said it was “extremely important”.
These results suggest that, particularly in the North, respondents are fully capable of distinguishing between planning and attainment: planning for a contingency is not the same as wanting it to happen.
There is a strong willingness to prioritise thinking ahead on the possibility of unification – even among Protestants who do not wish it to happen.
Perhaps this result is because the North is more influenced, and scarred, by the experience of Brexit.
In the survey, hardly any supporters of the DUP and UUP said it was extremely important to achieve unity, in line with what we would expect, but between 12 and 14 per cent of unionist party voters thought it extremely important to prepare for the possibility.
The exact same proportion of Southern Sinn Féin supporters (34 per cent) said unity was extremely important to plan for and to achieve. In contrast, Northern Sinn Féin supporters gave a higher priority to both aims, but were more likely to prioritise planning (64 per cent choosing “extremely important”) over attaining unity (43 per cent) – though that preference also reflected the party’s recent policy.
A similar pattern is found among SDLP supporters. Alliance supporters were six times more likely to give top priority to planning than to achieving unity.
Lessons
What should politicians make of these findings?
Perhaps the biggest lesson is for unionist leaders who resile from any discussions about planning out of fear that such preparation may increase the chances of unification occurring.
The unionist public is fully capable of distinguishing between the two aims. They highlight the importance of planning: in their case, perhaps to make the worst outcome better than it might be.
Our findings are also important for advocates of Irish unification: many back the call for preparation, but without committing themselves to support any eventual proposition.
Planning and timing
Are public priorities on unification related to views on when, if ever, referendums should be held?
We created a score indicating whether each individual respondent, North and South, gives a higher priority to achieving unity than to planning for the possibility, or the reverse – or whether they give equal priority to both aims.
Then we compared this score to their views on referendum timing.
Among pro-unity Southerners who wanted an immediate referendum within two years, 24 per cent gave a greater priority to achieving unity than planning for the possibility, while only 15 per cent prioritised planning over the attainment of unification.
In contrast, among pro-unity Southerners who favoured a referendum over the longer term, in 10 years’ time, only one in six prioritised attainment more than preparation, while one in three prioritised preparation over attainment.
A similar trend appears among pro-unity respondents in the North.
Among those who wanted a referendum within two years, one-third prioritised planning over attainment, while among those who desired a referendum in 10 years’ time just over half (52 per cent) prioritised planning over attainment.
There is some tension within the pro-unity public, North and South. Some have a somewhat ‘gung-ho’ approach (‘Let’s have the referendum now and not worry too much about planning') and a more patient approach (‘Let’s spend time preparing for the possibility of a unity referendum within 10 years or so').
What might advocates of Irish unification make of these findings?
To avoid Brexit-style opacity and maximise engagement of the unionist public in pre-referendum discussions, they should clearly prioritise the value of preparing for possible unification.
Doing so, however, requires encouraging patience regarding referendum timing among the overly enthusiastic among their base. And it requires focusing on feasible and credible choices in planning.
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