What did the public, North and South, think of the five different potential models of governing a united Ireland?
We report our survey evidence first, and then the results of our deliberative forums.
Survey respondents
According to the Arins/Irish Times surveys, which had about 1,000 representative respondents in the North and in South, Southerners very strongly opposed the Northern model guaranteeing unionists a joint prime minister and veto rights over legislation.
Rolling out this model with two prime ministers was supported by just 14 per cent of Southerners while 70 per cent preferred a single prime minister. Northern Catholics were also opposed (26 per cent to 62 per cent). Northern Protestants were evenly balanced: 44 per cent favoured two prime ministers and 45 per cent a single prime minister.
Southerners were opposed to British unionist veto powers in a united Ireland government, by a proportion of three to one, and Northern Catholics by just over two to one. Three fifths of Northern Protestants were, by contrast, supportive, though one quarter were opposed.
Southerners opposed guaranteed British unionist involvement in government through a quota: by 45 per cent to 29 per cent on guaranteed Cabinet ministers, and 49 per cent to 27 per cent on guaranteed party inclusion. On both questions Northern Catholics were evenly balanced. Northern Protestants strongly favoured such guarantees, by margins of 73 to 17 and 71 to 16 respectively.
Southerners’ antipathy to accommodating British unionists was much lower, however, when they responded to the model of “inclusive coalition” in which unionists would be highly likely to be in the government but without a joint prime minister or veto powers.
Asked to choose between the current Irish model and the “inclusive coalition” model, Southerners preferred what they know by the relatively small proportion of 44 per cent to 34 per cent. Northern Catholics were evenly balanced while Protestants much prefer the inclusive model to the current Irish model by 66 per cent to 19 per cent.
The territorial model, which would currently lead to “four Northern cabinet ministers”, was strongly supported by Northern Protestants and Catholics by a proportion of almost six to one and five to one, respectively, and also by Southerners by a margin of 40 per cent to 31 per cent.
So, from the survey evidence the models attracting most support from all three relevant groups – Southerners, Northern Catholics, and Northern Protestants – are the inclusive and Northern quota models, and to a lesser extent the Irish model.
What about judgments after deliberation?
Surveys only skim the surface of public opinion. That’s why we presented the five models of government formation to a sample of 63 members of the public in the North and 65 members of the public in the South, in two deliberative forums (or mini citizens’ assemblies). Participants were broadly representative of the adult population on age, gender, class, geography (and, in Northern Ireland, religion).
Participants were provided with a detailed description of each model, its possible advantages and disadvantages, and simulations of feasible governments under unification. Participants considered each model in facilitated round-table discussions, and there were question and answer sessions. At the start and the end of the day the participants completed a detailed questionnaire asking them to evaluate each model.
[ Majorities in North and South favour planning for Irish unityOpens in new window ]
After deliberation Northern Protestants viewed the inclusive coalition model more positively (there was no change for Southerners or Northern Catholics). Most strikingly, support for the territorial model, which would currently produce four ministers from Northern constituencies, plummeted among Northern Protestants, and support from Northern Catholics also declined.
Northern Protestant support for the Irish model decreased, as did such support for rolling out the Northern powersharing model.
Southern Irish attitudes to rolling out the Northern powersharing model and the model with a quota of unionist cabinet ministers with veto powers also strikingly worsened.
Implications?
Advocates of unification, well in advance of any possible referendum, will need to be clear about how a united Ireland should be governed. Any such model will need to have two public opinion features. It should not attract strong hostility from Northern Protestants, Northern Catholics, or Southerners; and it should have support that will not melt in the heat of proper consideration by the public, eg, during referendum campaigns.
Our evidence suggests that the model that best passes these two tests is the inclusive coalition government.
At the deliberative forums, we explained to participants that this model, based on extrapolations from the then most recent elections (the 2020 general election in the South and the 2022 Assembly elections in the North), would produce a government in a united Ireland made up of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Greens, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin.
[ Support for Irish unification growing in Northern Ireland, poll findsOpens in new window ]
This possible example comprised the key current governing parties in the South (2020-24) and the two main governing parties in the North: convincing evidence, perhaps, of the realism of this model.
If we updated the inclusive model to incorporate the November 2024 election in the South, the Greens – having performed very poorly – would be excluded, and instead Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the DUP and Sinn Féin would be joined by the Social Democrats and Alliance.
