If referendums were held North and South and there was majority support in both jurisdictions for Irish unification then two broad institutional possibilities would face the all-island state.
On the one hand, Northern Ireland could be assimilated into the existing Republic of Ireland with little amendment to how political institutions operate at present in the South. On the other hand, there could be major changes to the Irish political system to facilitate unification.
Previous Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South (Arins)/Irish Times surveys have examined whether, in the event of unification, people across the island would like to see a new flag or a new constitution or whether they would prefer to see the existing symbols and arrangements of the Republic of Ireland remain intact.
We have explored the public’s views on changing the Irish presidency – for example to consider the merits of having a Vice-President who identifies, at least partly, with the British and unionist tradition. And we have considered the views of the two publics on possible changes to the Irish senate in the event of unification.
This year we have investigated in considerable detail, in two deliberative forums, public views on the possible design of the executive in a united Ireland. The results displayed significant willingness to depart from the existing model of the executive in the Republic as well as strong hostility to exporting the Northern model of the executive into a united Ireland.
But this year we also wanted to explore the flexibility of Irish nationalists South and North to the general principle of amending existing political institutions.
In the latest 2024 Arins/Irish Times survey, we asked respondents whether they would consider, in the event of unification, significantly reforming the existing political institutions of the Republic.
This question is designed to capture the level of openness, or otherwise, to the principle of building a new or modified state rather than simply expanding the status quo in the South.
On both sides of the border there is agreement that, in the event of unification, significant changes to the Republic’s existing political institutions should be considered. In the South, 58 per cent of people agree to some extent that such changes should be considered compared to 16 per cent who disagree to some extent; a further 16 per cent are neutral, and 10 per cent say they do not know.
In Northern Ireland, the balance of opinion is even more in favour of considering major changes to the existing political institutions of the Republic, post-unification.
Three in four (74 per cent) agree with the idea compared to around one in 20 who disagree (6 per cent).
Among people from a Catholic background in the North, more than seven times as many people agree (70 per cent) than disagree (9 per cent) that major changes to Republic’s political institutions should be considered in a united Ireland.
Among Northern Protestants, meanwhile, nearly 16 times as many agree (79 per cent) with the idea than disagree (5 per cent).
Similarly, the views of different sets of party supporters across the island display a high degree of consensus in favour of considering significant changes to political institutions in any united Ireland.
In keeping with previous findings in Arins/Irish Times surveys on openness to change compared to retaining specific aspects of the current political system in the South, there are significant differences in the degree to which different sets of party supporters are enthusiastically open to change.
Unsurprisingly, unionist party supporters in the North are the most supportive of the principle of considering major reforms to the Republic’s existing institutions in a post-unification scenario, with net levels of agreement of +78 for Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) supporters and +76 for Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) supporters. Net agreement levels for Alliance Party supporters and Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) supporters are not far behind, at +71 and +70 respectively.
Sinn Féin supporters are the least enthusiastic of any set of party supporters in the North regarding making significant changes to the South’s political institutions, but they still display net agreement of +63.
Northern Sinn Féin supporters are significantly more responsive, however, than any of the supporters of the three main parties in the South, with net agreement scores of +45 for Fianna Fáil supporters, +42 for Southern Sinn Féin supporters, and +40 for Fine Gael supporters. Nevertheless, these are all significantly positive levels of agreement.
So public opinion, North and South, points strongly in the same direction on this question. Most people on both sides of the border and most supporters of parties from across the political spectrum agree that significant changes to the existing political institutions of the Republic of Ireland should be considered in the event of unification.
Consistent with previous findings, however, people in the South are somewhat more reluctant to entertain changes to their familiar political system to facilitate unification. That is not surprising: in comparative perspective the Republic has been a success story.
So, even though our previous findings have sometimes revealed outright opposition to changing the existing political symbols of the Republic, there is nevertheless significant Southern support in principle for considering major changes to the Republic’s political institutions.
