Former minister for housing Darragh O’Brien was sent a forecast months before the election which officials said cast doubt on hitting Government home-building targets.
The outgoing coalition, nonetheless, went into the election saying its targets would be exceeded. It claimed that up to 40,000 houses would be built by the end of 2024.
Internal records from the Department of Housing show that in August, a monthly housing data report drawn up by civil servants drew particular attention to a BNP Paribas projection that delivery would be between 30,000 and 33,000 homes.
The target set out in the Housing for All plan was for 33,450 completions.
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While outlining that most analysts were forecasting that targets would be met, they wrote: “Notably, BNP Paribas forecasts have been the most accurate in recent years, and they suggest reaching the target this year will be challenging.”
In the final reckoning, political projections of up to 40,000 homes and the Housing for All target were missed – with 30,330 homes completed.
The department confirmed the forecast reports were “submitted to the Minister’s Office for the Minister’s attention”. His spokeswoman did not address a question asking whether he had seen them.
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In the days before the analysis was formulated, Mr O’Brien wrote to coalition leaders saying he estimated the State would approach 40,000 units in 2024. This formed the basis for claims made by the coalition leaders in the lead-up to the election.
Most private sector analyses contained in the documents predicted that the State would hit its target. Some suggested 40,000 new homes would be built last year.
However, this does not appear to have been endorsed by the civil servants. They suggested that while Housing for All targets would likely be met, increases seen in 2022 or 2023 would be “sustained” or “maintained” without saying to what level.
In November, during the election month, officials wrote that the Central Bank of Ireland, Economic and Social Research Institute and Bank of Ireland had downgraded their forecasts. They noted feedback from the home-building sector that suggested the target would be reached and “possibly exceeded” but also noted “uncertainty” around output.
Officials were more bullish about the following years, noting projections that output would rise to 40,000 in 2025.
The documents were released under the Freedom of Information Act.
A department spokesman said the projections “reflect the inherent difficulty of forecasting a final outturn in any given year”.
“Last year’s outturn was lower than expected by many if not all commentators. And it was certainly disappointing given the significant uplift achieved in delivery in the previous two years.” He said the Housing for All target from 2022-2024 was exceeded by about 5,500 homes.
A spokesman for Taoiseach Micheál Martin said: “As stated previously, there were a number of expert bodies who were predicting completions of up to 40,000 homes in 2024.
“It is disappointing that these figures were not reached, despite a strong pipeline, and the Government is determined to ramp up delivery further in the years to come.”
Coalition sources said the final figure for 2024 could increase once local authority figures are published, while completions for this January could be stronger than expected.
Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman said he did not recall seeing the documents during government discussion on housing targets at the time.
A spokesman for Tánaiste Simon Harris referred to his recent comments saying that Mr O’Brien’s letter was sent in good faith but that the figure of 40,000 homes should not have been given. It is understood he did not see the documents in question.
