It is the most anticipated trip by a Taoiseach to Washington that anyone can remember.
Much of the country – and the world – watched the exchanges between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the Oval Office last week in shock and amazement. Trump considered it “great television”. But among Micheál Martin and his senior officials, the reactions were more immediate, personal and horrified.
“Disaster,” texted one.
“Oh sh*t,” said another.
This was not an atypical response. They know that next week, they are visiting the lion in his den.
Martin and his team have been preparing carefully for the various possible scenarios, for questions that might be put to them by the press – planted or otherwise – and for points which might be raised by the US side in private or in public.
The Taoiseach has discussed with Keir Starmer the British prime minister’s successful visit to the White House when he established an upbeat and almost jocular rapport with the US president. At the European summit on Thursday, he consulted with French leader Emmanuel Macron, who managed a similarly successful Washington trip the week before. But Martin knows that with Trump, any encounter is going to be fundamentally unpredictable.
If the treatment of Zelenskiy seemed to herald a profound break between the United States and Ukraine, the days since then have only heightened the fears of many on this side of the Atlantic. The US paused military aid to Ukraine on Monday, and on Tuesday suspended intelligence sharing with Kyiv.
European Union leaders have acknowledged that they can no longer depend on US security guarantees and in the face of a militarily aggressive, expansionary Russia, they are scrambling to rearm to deter further Russian attacks. They hope that the US will continue as an ally. But they can no longer depend on it.
In this fraught scenario then, Martin becomes the first EU leader to visit the White House since the scale of the breach with Europe became clear. His visit also comes as the Trump administration promises to hit EU imports with tariffs that could clobber the Irish economy – an economy in which US companies that Trump wants to see return to America play an outsize role.
Meanwhile, the Government’s vocal support of the Palestinians against Israel, and plans to legislate for a ban on Israeli imports produced in the Occupied Territories, have led to a sustained campaign by Israel against Ireland – at a time when Israel’s influence has never been greater in the White House.
Apart from all that, jokes one insider, there’s nothing to worry about.
“They’re kind of freaked out,” says one person with regular contact with Irish officials.
But sources with knowledge of Martin’s preparations play down the sense of impending or inevitable doom. “He’s experienced and has dealt with a lot of difficult characters,” says one. “He’ll handle it.”
Officials do not believe that Trump, or anyone else in his team, will go into the meeting with Martin seeking to provoke a row.
“It’s a happy event,” says one. “I don’t think Trump will seek to make it unpleasant or hostile.”
Trump has made no secret of his antipathy to the European Union. But he has had good relations with individual EU leaders such as Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni and, recently, Emmanuel Macron. So Martin is likely to stress his Irishness, rather than his Europeanness, though sources also say that Martin will, if necessary, defend the EU and Ireland’s role in it.
He will not want to get bogged down in an exchange about possible tariffs, but will stress the mutually beneficial economic ties between the US and Ireland. Trouble is, Trump believes that they are much more beneficial to Ireland than to the US.
Sources close to the Taoiseach wondered why Tánaiste Simon Harris on Thursday chose to dispute publicly US officials’ account of a call on Tuesday between himself and US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
Israel and Palestine is also a point of significant worry for the Irish side.
“I’d say we will be complimenting his efforts to bring peace to the Middle East,” says one Irish official, shrugging.
Martin is certainly not going to be going into the Oval Office to lecture Trump on his support for Israel.
Irish officials have identified as the point of maximum danger the press opportunity in the Oval Office on Wednesday morning before the bilateral meeting between the two men.
Under the last US president Joe Biden, this was little more than a photocall, but Trump is often happy to shoot the breeze with reporters for much longer. The freewheeling exchanges is where they fear things going off-track – as happened with Zelenskiy.
They will be watching out for questions from reporters which would put Martin on the spot over Gaza, or Ukraine, or whatever. It was a question from Trump-supporting journalist Brian Glenn about Zelenskiy’s attire – US reports revealed the journalist to be the boyfriend of Trump ultra Marjorie Taylor Greene, the far-right Republican congresswoman from Georgia – which triggered the descent of the Zelenskiy meeting into acrimonious argument.
Martin will want to avoid that. Expect lots of chat about Doonbeg, Trump’s Co Clare resort, and golf. And he’ll definitely wear a suit.
