The scene is set for a showdown between Government and Opposition via a motion of no-confidence in Ceann Comhairle Verona Murphy, due to be debated and voted on next week.
After Tuesday’s riotous Dáil exchanges, Opposition leaders made it clear on Wednesday their objections to the changes in the Dáil’s rules remain as strong as ever, but they will be focused on the Ceann Comhairle. Her role in pushing through the changes – in the face of sustained attempts to force adjournments of the Dáil by making it ungovernable – has meant she is now in the eye of the storm. Taoiseach Micheál Martin, meanwhile, has made it clear the Government intends to draw a line in the sand at the Ceann Comhairle.
There are two principal uncertainties that will decide the trajectory of the row and its ultimate resolution. First, will Murphy’s appetite for the fight she now faces remain as strong as her statement on Wednesday night suggests? In it, she categorically rejected allegations of partiality and “collusion”, adding she intends to continue in her post.
Opposition loses confidence in Verona Murphy as the Lowry deal haunts Government
Previously, it was generally accepted that the Ceann Comhairle had to enjoy the confidence of both sides of the House. But Government figures say those old unwritten rules have changed. When the Opposition resorts to planned and orchestrated disruption of the Dáil, shouting down the chair and Taoiseach, then, they say, it is clear the civilised conventions of the Oireachtas are no longer in operation.
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So, the Government will back Murphy to the hilt. Martin seems especially determined to resist what he considers a new and hyper-aggressive Opposition, especially from Sinn Féin.
Will Murphy stick it out? She has certainly demonstrated considerable toughness in the past, weathering expulsion from Fine Gael and coming back to take and hold a seat in Wexford. If she has sometimes seemed ill at ease in the chair, it is hard to see the political rationale for a resignation now.
The second question is what will the Opposition do when it loses – as it must, given the Dáil numbers – the vote of no confidence? Will it continue to disrupt proceedings?
That seems unlikely: stopping the work of the Dáil indefinitely is hardly a viable political strategy for the medium term. Even senior Opposition figures acknowledge this. They say if she continues in the chair, she will do so with her authority shredded. That may be true, but notional. It is unclear what it will mean in practice, bar further occasional outbreaks of disorder. It is perhaps more likely that the Dáil settles down in an uneasy cold war with everyone glowering at one another.
For many people, the overarching question will be why the Government is prepared to go to such lengths for Murphy, but also for Tipperary North Independent TD Michael Lowry. Despite Martin’s uncompromising stance, there is significant unease on the benches behind him about this.
There is not as much of a mystery as people think, though. Lowry’s advice to his fellow Independents has been that they need the profile of Dáil appearances. Consequently, it was part of the agreement when the Coalition was formed. Sure, it is not in the programme for government. But not everything that was agreed on is in that agenda. Martin will stick to the deal because he wants to and because he can.
Perhaps the enduring result of all this may be a poisonous political atmosphere in Leinster House. If so, given what may be coming down the tracks for the Republic – from the Trump tariffs to the EU rearming agenda – that may herald a bruisingly divisive political era.
