The anticipated announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration on Wednesday will put the rows over speaking rights for independents and changes to the Dáil’s standing orders in perspective.
They are all acutely conscious of this in Leinster House; the Opposition reckons they can’t continue the raucous disruptions of Dáil business that convulsed politics last week, while Government TDs know they are getting at least their fair share of the blame from the public.
The plaintive appeal from Government-supporting Independent TD Barry Heneghan to move his seat in the Dáil chamber so he wouldn’t have to sit beside Michael Lowry any more was privately scoffed at in Government. But its members are under no illusions that the public is looking on the whole episode as a shabby reflection on all involved.
At Tuesday’s Order of Business – where the Government lays out the Dáil schedule for the week – Sinn Féin registered its continuing disagreement with the legitimacy of the changes to the standing orders.
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But the party left it at that when the Ceann Comhairle brushed aside chief whip Pádraig Mac Lochlainn’s objections, telling him he had his “remedy” in the confidence motion. Sinn Féin accepted the result of the vote on the Order of Business.
A bit later, Mary Lou McDonald told the confidence debate that, irrespective of the outcome of the vote, Verona Murphy’s position was untenable. Micheál Martin had earlier delivered a sustained assault on Sinn Féin.
But really, the confidence debate was, well, just a typical confidence debate.
The Government side won it easily on Murphy’s behalf. This and other recent votes have shown that the Government’s working majority is 20 votes or so. That’s a comfortable margin. And the desire to ensure a comfortable majority is what all this has been about from day one.
The Opposition has indicated they will not co-operate with pairing arrangements and so forth to make things as difficult as they can for the Government. That is hardly unexpected.
The unmistakable sense around Leinster House is that the confidence motion will draw some sort of a line under the controversy and enable things to move on. The committees are expected to be formed.
The episode will not be without its repercussions.
There are three principal consequences.
Firstly, it will leave a legacy of ill-feeling in Leinster House that will make our politics scratchier, more antagonistic, more partisan. Lots of people seem perfectly content with this development; both the Taoiseach and Sinn Féin have embraced it, for sure. It certainly has the virtue of honesty.
Others are a little more iffy about it – Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan gave a more emollient speech in which he appealed for cross-party amicability, pointing out that he wants the committees set up so the Opposition can contribute to legislation.
Secondly, if it is clear that Sinn Féin is committed to a more aggressive model of opposition (as the party was freely admitting even before the row kicked off), then it is also clear the Government is happy to push through whatever it wants to do using its majority. Consensus may be all well and good, but ultimately numbers rule.
Thirdly, all this is happening at a time when the political and financial weather forecast could hardly be more threatening. For the first time in several years, the Government seems likely to come under fiscal, and therefore budgetary, pressure.
At the very least, the permanent summer of seemingly endless budget surpluses – and the consequent ability of Government to throw lots of money at every problem – looks likely to end very soon.
Just as politics is getting angrier, governing is going to get harder.
