The 100 day mark has been and gone in US president Donald Trump’s second term (Taoiseach Michael Martin is not far behind in his second stint in the top job here) and what a tumultuous time it has been.
However, it is another count of days that is exercising minds around the world – Trump’s 90-day pause on the higher trade tariffs he had announced which is due to expire in July.
The 10 per cent tariffs still apply to most countries, including Ireland, while the levies of up to 145 per cent on Chinese goods also remain in place.
In our print lead today, Peter Flanagan and Tim O’Brien outline how Central Bank governor Gabriel Makhlouf has warned that Trump’s tariffs pose a “major downside risk” to Ireland’s economy, particularly if tariffs and changes to US tax policy discourage American companies from investing here.
A “more significant slowdown” in the world economy “cannot be ignored” as a result of the US policies, which underlines the threat to Ireland’s public finances given their reliance on a small number of big companies’ corporation tax payments, Mr Makhlouf said in a speech yesterday to the Dublin Chamber of Commerce.
“The economic vulnerability here to a more fragmented trade and investment dynamic between the EU and the US is considerable,” Mr Makhlouf said.
“Depending on the specifics, the application of tariffs and non-tariff barriers could significantly impact the operations of [multinational enterprises] in Ireland over the longer term, particularly if they affect their relative profitability.”
Ireland is widely considered one of the most vulnerable European Union countries to the US plan to implement tariffs around the world.
About 211,000 people here work directly for US companies, according to the American Chamber of Commerce Ireland.
Mr Maklouf meanwhile, highlighted the potential impact on corporation tax receipts and also said: “This likelihood increases further if trade-related barriers coincide with broader changes in tax and industrial policy that could discourage investment and activity in Ireland.”
“Such situations pose a major downside risk to the economic outlook,” Mr Makhlouf warned.
Trade is a European Union competency and while the Irish Government is seeking to influence any EU response to the tariffs (it’s not too hot on any retaliation measures that would impact on US tech firms for instance), it will be Brussels, not Dublin that takes the lead on the matter.
There are already signs that the tariffs are hurting the US economy and the - perhaps multi-trillion dollar question - is whether Trump will blink when the time is up on his three-month pause.
The clock is ticking.
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Playbook
Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke takes Parliamentary Questions in the Dáil from 8.47am.
Dara Calleary, the Minister for Social Protection, is next up at 10.23am.
Leaders’ Questions is at noon followed by Other Members’ Questions – a chance for some independent TDs and Coalition backbenchers to pose a question to senior Government figures.
Government business in the afternoon (from 1.52pm) is statements on the Farrelly Commission Report on the case of an intellectually disabled, non-verbal woman referred to as “Grace”, who experienced severe neglect in an unvetted “foster home” in the southeast. Here is some of our previous coverage.
There are also statements on International Workers’ Day from 3.52pm.
TDs have an opportunity to raise topical issues at 6.17pm.
The Seanad will hear statements to mark Europe Day 2025 from 11.45am.
The full Dáil and Seanad statements can be found here and here.
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