Good and bad news for Ireland from Trump’s UK deal

Good morning.

The Cabinet gathers at Government Buildings for its weekly meeting with the spectre of Donald Trump once again looming large over events. Tánaiste Simon Harris will brief his colleagues on initial analysis by officials of the US-UK trade deal announced last week. There’s good news and bad news. The good news is that officials say that the tricky situation of differential tariff rates for North and South has been averted for now anyway; the bad news is that the agreement with the UK suggests that the US sees tariffs as an essential part of the future arrangements with the rest of the world. In other words, Harris will tell his colleagues, even if there is a trade agreement between the EU and the US in the coming months – and that’s a big if – there is likely to be tariffs. This is the “new reality”, he will tell the Cabinet. And that will suppress trade and therefore growth.

As we report this morning, yesterday was a good example of just how unpredictable and volatile the trade policy environment right now. The US and China announced they would set aside the recent massive tariffs for 90 days to try to create the conditions for a new agreement.

“We’re not looking to hurt China,” said Donald Trump – which is a new angle for him, you’d have to say.

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US tariff escalation on EU pharma imports during talks would show ‘extraordinarily bad faith’ - Harris

A couple of hours later, Trump announced a new executive order designed to cut drug prices in the US – though critics immediately said that the order didn’t include any actual measures that would reduce costs, and as such amounted to a request to the pharma companies to cut their prices. Maybe they will. Give Trump a victory and then move on. That would certainly be welcomed in Dublin, fretting about the pharma companies who pay so much corporation tax here. Then again, things could change again today.

Row brewing over Leaving Cert reforms

Teachers could be subjected to salary deductions if they don’t implement Leaving Cert forms, Carl O’Brien reports.

According to proposals from the Department of Education, teachers could lose 5 per cent of their salaries – money they are being paid under pay agreements requiring workplace flexibility – if they refuse to co-operate with Leaving Cert reforms. Officials say unions will be in breach of pay deals giving them 2 per cent and 3 per cent pay rises. The ASTI is threatening not to co-operate with the plan, but Minister for Education Helen McEntee will tell the Cabinet today that she intends to push on with Leaving Cert reforms, despite the objections. Well, every minister for education has to have a row with the teachers at some stage.

Martin trades barbs with Orban

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has tangled with Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban over plans for Ukraine to join the EU. Orban has repeatedly threatened to use Hungary’s veto to block the move, which Martin described as “outrageous” in an interview with Euronews, complaining of “wilful abuse of the veto”. Orban hit back, complaining that Hungary “always regarded Irish patriots as champions of freedom and national independence”, and accusing Martin of siding with “an empire”.

Best reads

Irish Times chess columnist JJ Walsh retires after 70 years and – get this – nearly 16,000 puzzles. Nice piece by Ronan McGreevy.

Work on the BusConnects corridors will start in the autumn. Expect there to be blue murder. If the cycle tracks are anything to go by, they should be finished by about 2100.

A collapsed Victorian cottage in Ranelagh is owned by . . . the Construction Industry Federation.

London Correspondent Mark Paul on Labour’s tough new stance on immigration in the UK.

Donald Trump offers to join the Russia-Ukraine talks.

On Monday’s Inside Politics podcast, Simon Harris answered questions on housing, the Occupied Territories Bill and more.

Playbook

Cabinet meets at Government Buildings this morning – Jack Horgan-Jones has a preview of some of the agenda items, including a plan to poach US academics and researchers.

The Dáil resumes at 2pm with Leaders’ Questions, followed by the Order of Business and Taoiseach’s questions. There’s statements on higher education, Sinn Féin Private Members’ business and health questions. Quiet day in the Seanad and there’s little meaningful business yet at the committees. Read the full Oireachtas schedule here.

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