At a time of geopolitical tension and unrest the world desperately needs something it can pursue in the collective interests of all countries; action that can bring tangible benefits across business, in communities and for individuals often struggling with the cost of living.
Unquestionably, accelerated roll-out of renewable energy in the form of solar, wind and battery storage is one vehicle to achieve this. It applies equally to wealthy countries of the Global North as it does to less developed countries in the Global South.
It offers the prospect of a better quality of life; the opportunity to live in a healthy environment and ensure a more stable planet. The sooner they are pursued, backed by substantial investments, the right policy mix and government supports, the more those benefits will be maximised.
It coincides, however, with many of the Earth’s “vital signs” hitting record extremes, indicating that “the future of humanity hangs in the balance” – the conclusion of some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists this month.
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Their study, published in the journal Bioscience, assessed 35 vital signs in 2023 and found 25 were worse than ever recorded, including carbon dioxide levels and human population. This indicates a “critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis”, and raises the possibility of societal collapse. Those threats cannot be ignored. In many instances, known solutions are being deployed but not fast enough.
Reassuringly, the pursuit of renewables is more down the road to a decarbonised world than many realise, though the way ahead is already bumpy. Energy investment globally is expected to exceed $3 trillion in 2024, with two-thirds invested in clean energy technologies including renewable power, electric vehicles, nuclear power, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency improvements and heat pumps, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Renewables are on course to generate close to half of global electricity by 2030.
Former US climate envoy John Kerry was in Dublin recently when he declared economies across the world have made the decision to transition to clean energy. This is unstoppable, he said, and renewables are winning on price – despite the menacing efforts of the oil and gas sector – but a critical question remains.
“It will be at varying paces with varying technologies ... The question is not, will we – all of us – come to live in low-carbon, no-carbon economies; we will. The question is, will we get there in time to avoid the worst consequences of the crisis?”
Big companies are committed to net zero by 2050 and won’t row back, Kerry said. Even Republican US states that received most money from the Inflation Reduction Act – the US multibillion-dollar green deal – “are not going to say, take the jobs back, close the factory”.
“And a country that doesn’t keep up is a country that’s going to suffer economically because it’s going to have this incredible increasing damage from the climate crisis without the technologies to manage the transition effectively,” Kerry told an impact investment conference.
The IEA has predicted that all fossil fuels will peak globally before 2030. This signals the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. In Ireland, burning of fossil fuels peaked in 2008. By 2023, fossils fuels usage was 26 per cent below peak. This was due to policy driven by fuel switching and energy efficiency gains, along with the increases in renewables, and in spite of strong economic growth and a rising population, energy specialist Prof Brian Ó Gallachóir of UCC has noted.
The peaking in fossil fuel usage is clear indication that the transition to a low carbon, fossil-fuel-free future is under way in Ireland. Rapid acceleration of this energy transition makes sense from an economic as well as an environmental perspective, Ó Gallachóir suggested.
Another big question remains both in the global and national context: Do we have the political and societal will to finish the job in a planned and timely manner while ensuring fairness and equity?
This Government may be in its dying days but critical legislation planned in the programme for government has not got across the line, though the Planning Bill – imperfect but essential for accelerated decarbonisation – has finally been enacted. The Marine Protected Areas Bill, which will be vital in providing clarity in scaling up offshore energy, especially in relation to where wind farms can be located, is outstanding.
The latest edition of Sustainable Ireland highlights the challenges but also features those pushing on, who are applying innovative thinking and deploying technology to enable the smoothest possible transition for them and for others.
