Some experts and politicians have claimed that Ireland has the potential to become the Saudi Arabia of offshore wind. The Government’s offshore future framework document has set targets of 5GW of offshore wind installed by 2030, rising to 20GW by 2040 and 37GW by 2050.
To put those figures in context, Ireland has 5GW of onshore wind farms installed across the country after decades of development. It is now fairly clear that the 2030 target will not be met.
What chance is there of meeting the other much higher targets and having sufficient wind energy to export? What additional infrastructure in the form of interconnectors will be needed to support exports? Are the claims for Ireland’s offshore wind potential realistic or so much hot air? What can be done to accelerate progress towards the targets?
All wind generation in Ireland is onshore except for the Arklow Bank Wind farm, says Daniel Blanchfield, group sustainability manager, FLI Group. “In 2023, there was 4.74GW of wind capacity in Ireland, this has increased by an average of 0.28GW capacity per year over the past year.
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“In 2023, over one-third of electricity in Ireland was generated by wind turbines. This is quite impressive when you consider all, bar one site, wind generation is currently onshore. I believe that wind generation is currently underutilised in Ireland, there are clear benefits to wind generation compared to other sources of energy.”
The offshore wind targets set by the Irish Government signal the country’s commitment to renewable energy by recognising the significant offshore wind potential that Ireland possesses, says Sean Casey, EY Ireland energy and infrastructure consulting leader. “This is an important step as countries around the world look to transition to a decarbonised future. While it will be challenging to meet the 5GW target set by the government for 2030, several positive indicators demonstrate momentum concerning offshore development in Ireland.
“Currently, six projects totalling a capacity of 4.2GW are actively developing offshore wind projects in Ireland; four of these projects have submitted planning applications, with three due for a decision from An Bord Pleanála in December 2024. EirGrid is also actively developing another project off the southeast coast of Ireland, which will deliver an additional 900MW of offshore generation towards the end of the decade.”
The recent budget announcement also shows support from the Government for the offshore wind sector, with a €750 million equity injection planned for EirGrid to facilitate grid upgrades, Casey says. “Additionally, the Port of Cork is set to receive €99 million from the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund, indicating a strong commitment to developing the necessary infrastructure to support the sector.
“If by 2030 we can demonstrate Ireland’s ability to deliver offshore wind with a portion of the 5.1GW planned connected to the Irish grid, then there is no reason why Ireland cannot accelerate its rate of offshore delivery after that and meet the higher targets set for 2040 and 2050.”
Ireland possesses one of the most favourable wind regimes in Europe, with the west coast of Ireland offering some of the highest wind speeds thanks to the thousands of uninterrupted kilometres across the North Atlantic between Ireland and North America, says Casey. “This wind resource is real, but realising its full potential is contingent upon several factors. Another key dependency is the development of floating wind turbine technology, as the ocean floors off the west coast of Ireland exceed the practical limits for fixed bottom structures, typically used in shallower waters up to 65m.”
Offshore floating wind generation is not yet available at a commercial scale with only 30 of the 13,000 turbines installed globally using floating technology, Casey says. “Further research and development into floating offshore wind technology is required before it can be viewed as a commercially viable technology solution for Ireland. The timeframe within which floating wind technology can be unlocked will be a key determinant in whether Ireland can fully realise its offshore wind potential.”
In the 2024 Climate Action Plan, the Government committed to installing at least 5GW of offshore wind capacity, says Blanchfield. “Given that we have not yet achieved that capacity in onshore wind, in over two decades of development, it will be a significant challenge to build that capacity in five years on offshore sites.
“As with many projects in Ireland, Nimbyism [not in my backyard] is a large issue. While I agree with the critical nature of protecting our environment, blocking wind farm development to protect a view in my opinion is not a valid reason. There is no point keeping our environment pristine, with no development, if it reduces our ability to mitigate the effect of climate change which ultimately will be more harmful to the environment than installing wind turbines.”
Future levels of interconnection to accommodate the export of surplus electricity generated from offshore wind will depend on several factors, not least the level of electrification achieved onshore in the coming years, says Casey. “Demand for electricity in Ireland is expected to rise significantly by 2050, driven by the electrification of various sectors, including transportation and heating.”
Interconnectors are already playing a pivotal role in supporting Ireland’s transmission network, increasing energy security, enabling the import and export of electricity, and supporting the integration of renewable energy sources. “The two existing interconnectors on the island of Ireland provide 1GW of interconnection with Great Britain and a further 1.2GW in development in the Republic of Ireland. The Celtic Interconnector, due to come into operation in 2027, will connect Ireland’s transmission grid to mainland Europe via a connection into the northwest coast of France,” Casey says.
Our planning system can and does delay many important projects, says Blanchfield. “While I do believe it is important to allow people the chance to voice their concerns, delaying critically important infrastructure development is not acceptable either.
“Once planning permission is granted, utilising precast technology to make the turbine bases with low carbon concrete can accelerate the development on site. The more that can be produced in advance by local manufacturers will speed the process.”
Export licensing can be a barrier to businesses that want to generate their own electricity, continues Blanchfield. “It is currently unnecessarily difficult to get a suitable export license to the point that businesses are installing smaller solar arrays that they can fit, as without the ability to export it is not financially viable.
“While offshore wind will be a great positive, some easy changes to the rules around business exports could have a positive impact on our electricity mix.”
The Planning and Development Bill 2023, which has been nearly two years in the making, was recently passed by the Dáil, says Casey. “The Bill, which introduces new measures to disincentivise non-legitimate objectors, should reduce the time it takes for offshore wind projects to move from conception to generation.
“Continued initiatives by the government, such as the recent advisory co-operation between the European Investment Bank and the Department of Transport to assess capacity, demand and financing strategies for Irish offshore port infrastructure, will ensure other key building blocks for the successful delivery of offshore wind generation are in place.”
Casey says public support for offshore wind is also required. Measures such as the recent Offshore Wind Skills Action Plan announced by the Department of Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science, coupled with a €2.3 million allocation in Budget 2025 for skills training, “will allow the people of Ireland to actively participate in the development of offshore wind in Ireland and harness the economic benefits and job creation which this sector can bring in the coming decades”.