Although Ireland’s southwest coast served up some battering conditions overnight on Sunday, the bulk of the SSE Renewables Round Ireland Race fleet has remained intact, and a large group of yachts are approaching the north coast going into Tuesday.
Ahead Franci Niggeler’s Swiss entry Kuka3 has established what appears to be an insurmountable lead though this race course still has some notorious hurdles to clear first.
Not untypically for this event fresh winds on the Atlantic coast are replaced by light and even calm conditions on the north and east coasts, which is exactly the forecast for the coming days.
The first major hurdle is the Rathlin Island tidal gate: boats that get their arrival timing right will get a speed boost to the North Channel off Belfast Lough and the final sprint to the finishing line. But those that meet an adverse tide may will crawl along at best. With light winds or even a calm, anchors and long lines will be put out and delays of perhaps six hours could result.
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As a result by lunchtime on Tuesday the possible scenarios for the overall race win could become clearer. Under one outcome if Kuka3 slips past Rathlin unhindered by tide then they might repeat Niall Dowling’s 2018 victory on Baraka GP by taking line honours and the overall race win on handicap time. That scenario would assume no delays along the north Irish Sea and steering clear of Dundrum Bay near Dundalk that is often referred to by racing sailors as “Dun-doldrum Bay”.
The Irish Volvo 70-footer Green Dragon was some 35 miles behind Kuka 3 and could also make it past Rathlin, though challenging for line honours at this late stage of the race seems remote.
In an alternative scenario if Kuka3 ends up “parked” at Rathlin under anchor for a full tidal cycle, the front-runners of the main fleet could easily gain ground and arrive in time for the beneficial east-going flood tide.
The handicap lead has already swapped a number of times during Monday, with Denis and Annamarie Murphy’s Nieulargo, Bob Rendell’s Samatom and Michael Boyd’s Darkwood all provisionally listed as leaders at various stages.
This would effectively restart the race for all those at the front of the fleet while the next set of boats to arrive and miss the tidal gate would be disadvantaged..
However, a third scenario based on the above would see the smallest and slowest but most favourably handicapped boats continue their impressive and steady progress at the heels of their bigger and often fancier rivals. If these small boats make a timely arrival at the tidal gates while the bigger boats find themselves delayed, not only does the race restart but the bigger boats become massively time penalised as the clock started on Saturday afternoon. Then the prospect of one of the very smallest entries such as the 31-footers winning overall comes into view.
