CRICKET:IF THE Wanderers pitch lives up to its billing as something that Freddy Krueger might prepare, then the final Test promises to be a real scrap. The pacemen will have their revenge on those who prosper disproportionately on "chief executives" pitches, and spinners will look only for the leftovers.

In such circumstances, one single piece of batting heroics could decide the destiny of an absorbing series. If the weather holds sufficiently – and the signs are that there will be play until at least the middle of each afternoon before the anvil tops build up – then the draw, an integral element of a Test series that has provided such drama these past few weeks, will not be an option. This is the shootout.

Andrew Strauss and Graeme Smith, respective captains, will find this an awkward one to judge. Unlike Newlands or Centurion, the Wanderers is not a South African stronghold despite the fearsome reputation of the Bullring crowd.

Each of the last nine Tests there has produced a result but only four of them have been in favour of the home side. Pitches can change their appearance in the 24 hours leading up to the toss, once they have received their final wash and brush up, so pre-judgment can be tricky.

So, too, judging the overhead conditions. But this much was clear: there was good grass on it, but rolled in. The surface was not hard either, which is scarcely surprising given the amount of rain that has fallen, and the resultant high water tables. The groundsman, Chris Scott, under instructions apparently to prepare a “result” pitch, has had his preparation time curtailed.

The havoc that can be caused by quality pace bowlers, on a treacherous surface in gloomy light, has never been so starkly seen as when England were put in to bat in 1999-2000, and found themselves two for four against a rampant Allan Donald and Shaun Pollock.

Yet there is a balancing act to be considered here with the damage that can be done early on a damp pitch weighed against the prospect of batting last, when the indentations caused by the ball harden up, so that bounce becomes uneven.

For this game, whoever wins the toss must consider putting the opposition in knowing that no side has ever been inserted at the Wanderers and won, but then swallow hard, and bat in the further knowledge that there will be some trying times ahead.

Looked at it from a strictly pragmatic viewpoint, a case could be made for neither side to play a spinner. Certainly in the past 10 years, spinning contributions have been minimal in terms of wickets taken, with just 31 of 322 going to spinners.

It is almost 16 years since the Kiwi Matthew Hart took five wickets in an innings at the Wanderers, the last spinner to do so. England could then justify playing an extra pace bowler in place of Graeme Swann.

That they will not even consider doing so shows what an impact the off-spinner has on the England side, with his ability to take good wickets in conditions that might not suit him, his batting flair, catching skills (although dropping Smith in the second over of the Cape Town Test brought him swiftly back to earth after a dream 2009) and general demeanour.

There is less reason for South Africa to stick with their spinner Paul Harris, who has had only a modest series. But they too would be reluctant to jettison an option which gives them a change of pace.

Barring illness or injury, England will go in with the same 11 for the fourth successive game. South Africa may well name a side unchanged from the last Test with the exception of a debut for the young left-armer Wayne Parnell, a one-day specialist, in place of the injured Friedel de Wet, a gamble given the concerns that exist over his stamina for a Test match.

For England to win the match, and take home the Basil D’Oliveira Trophy, they must play significantly better than they have managed in two of the three Tests.

They know that a 1-0 lead is no more a fair reflection of the way the series has gone than would be a 2-1 South Africa lead, a plausible option given the fingernail hold on the draw at Centurion and Newlands. They are capable of first-rate performances such as that at Newlands but infuriatingly incapable of consistency.

So far the batting has been underpinned by Paul Collingwood, Alastair Cook and Ian Bell. There have been no telling contributions from Strauss, Jonathan Trott or Kevin Pietersen: each will feel additional pressure. Strauss must balance his desire to be aggressive with an approach that recognises the omnipotence of the new ball, and therefore sets out to negate its influence at all cost.

Pietersen has worked massively to eradicate the faults that have crept into his game, but those who would know suspect that a lack of the solid physical base to his batting, and its replacement by him being caught on the move, is down to him being unsettled by the short ball as a prelude to that pitched up. Both Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel will attempt to work him over more than anyone else. Pietersen is far too good a player not to find a way of coping but England need him to find his game. He may just hold the key to this Test.

Guardian Service