RACING/Grand National Preview: A broke leg kept Paul Carberry out of last year's Martell Grand National, but the Irish jockey looks to have a solid chance of a second success in the big race on Ad Hoc, BrianO'Connor reports from Aintree
About to claim a first jockey's championship at home, Ad Hoc would be the perfect ending to Carberry's best ever season when for once he has managed to escape serious injury.
Bobbyjo's National victory in 1999 remains the highlight of the 28-year-old's interrupted career, and it proved that Carberry's flamboyant talent will be a crucial factor to Ad Hoc's chances today.
However, it is not the only factor. Just as important is Ad Hoc's ability to act on quick ground and with the sun pouring down on Liverpool yesterday, maybe even Mr Frisk's 1990 race record of eight minutes and 47 seconds could be threatened.
He is also a proven stayer with last year's Whitbread under his belt and a second on fast ground in the Scottish National. Ad Hoc's trainer, Paul Nichols, has already had a winner over the big fences this week and the horse comes here on the back of a promising warm-up at Cheltenham.
In addition, Ad Hoc's owner, Robert Ogden, has Kingsmark in the race and possibly more importantly the topweight Marlborough.
His presence keeps Ad Hoc on 11-1, which is an important factor considering 20 of the last 23 winners have carried 11st or less. The highest weighted winner in that time was Grittar in 1985, who had 11-5, so that must be a worry for Willie Mullins.
He runs the Gold Cup sixth Alexander Banquet off 11-11 and the weight, plus the fast going, may be against him becoming the 18th Irish-trained winner of the great race.
"He is in terrific form and has been moving well on the ground since he got here. He does have plenty of weight and ideally he would like a bit of ease, but he should be staying on when some of the others have had enough," Mullins said yesterday.
Last year's Irish National winner, Davids Lad, has been aimed at today ever since and will like the ground. However, an obvious worry is that Tony Martin hasn't had a winner since February 13th. The trainer is also low key about his chance.
"He has not been showing the same sparkle as last year and he hasn't come in his coat. But his blood tests and scopes are clean," said Martin.
There are four other Irish horses in the race, including Lyreen Wonder, but Arthur Moore is already looking ahead to next year's National for that one.
"I think he will be a proper contender then. The first reason for bringing him this year is to get experience of the track. Anything else will be a bonus," said Moore, who has run nine in the National to date and none has finished.
Blowing Wind, remounted to finish third in last year's drama, is sure to be a popular fancy with the record-breaking Tony McCoy on board. However, McCoy faces an anxious few hours in the hope that the course doctor passes him fit after a crunching fall yesterday.
Martin Pipe has a remarkable seven other runners in the race as he tries to add to Miinnehoma's triumph in 1994. They include Majed, who has never even run over fences in Britain after being transferred from France. His intended jockey, Irish-born Rodi Greene misses the ride after injuring himself yesterday.
The Pipe squad will provide any number of possible outsiders for the public to latch onto, but maybe Samuel Wilderspin will run best of those at longish odds.
The horse had a history of bursting blood vessels but seems to have been transformed since joining the Herefordshire trainer Richard Lee. He has won at Cheltenham and Haydock this season and should be okay on the going.
However, the pick for a winner leads back to Ad Hoc, even if he is a possible favourite and even if only 11 favourites won the National in the entire 20th century.
