RACING: Brian O'Connor talks to Aidan O'Brien on his thoughts about thechampion hurdler Istabraq.
Boil it down to basics and today's Smurfit Champion Hurdle revolves around one question: is Istabraq as good as ever? If he is, the result is a foregone conclusion. If he isn't, the rest of them can start dreaming. The only problem is the one man who might have the answer doesn't know any more than the rest of us.
"It's very hard to say and it's very hard to find out," says Aidan O'Brien. "If we over stress him at home he might not show his best on the track. He has been trained very carefully. We've been minding him. As he gets older, we can't give him as much work as we used to." As roaring endorsements go, it's a bit on the quiet side. In fact, it might even convince the sceptics, who have been dismissing the champ something awful, that Istabraq does indeed have every ailment from corns to the galloping clap.
But the faithful who have followed Istabraq's Cheltenham journey, from the SunAlliance in 1997 through that barnstorming first title win and on to the bloody nose that petrified a nation two years ago, know that O'Brien and bald statements are as mixable as oil and water.
Derby winners and maidens all get the same "nice horse" underplay that O'Brien specialises in. A champion like Istabraq is not the one likely to break the mould.
"Pressure is training Istabraq," the 32-year-old declared during the summer that brought a world record number of Group One flat winners worldwide. It sounded almost like a soundbite. A hack pack more used to the "nice horse" quote scribbled appreciatively. But O'Brien means it.
"The main thing is he comes back in one piece. Even now, the only thing JP (McManus) really wants is to get the horse down to Martinstown, put him in a paddock and let him live out his days," O'Brien says.
"Time just doesn't stand still. Everything ages and he is a horse who has been in training for nine years, since he was a yearling, and not like most National Hunt horses who start when they're four or five. He has shown signs of getting older. He can be stiff after working but it's just an age thing."
Even in that pomp, there were those who questioned if he was beating anything worthwhile in those three championships. The same criticisms could be argued now but O'Brien is taking nothing for granted.
"It's a Champion Hurdle, so these are the best around. It's like that every year. You can only race against what's there. I think it's an open race. There are a lot dangers, the horse of Pipe's, Henderson's, they all scare me."
What might be even more scary for the Cheltenham authorities is the reaction of the thousands of Irish race fans if Istabraq wins. Cheltenham's managing director Edward Gillespie may look back to the wild scenes that greeted Imperial Call and Danoli with fond nostalgia.
It was Gillespie who some years ago tried to stop O'Brien entering the winner's enclosure after failing to recognise the young trainer. Recognition is not likely to be a problem this time if O'Brien successfully masterminds a remarkable piece of history.