WALES v SCOTLAND:WARREN GATLAND has one reason for being grateful that the roof of the Millennium Stadium will be open when Wales play Scotland this afternoon: it will stop it caving in on his head should his side suffer a fourth defeat in five Six Nations matches.
Gatland is at a dangerous point in his 26-month reign as Wales coach, which started with a Grand Slam: Wales have only once gone into a World Cup with a coach who was in charge at the start of the previous year and that was back in 1987. With the next tournament little more than 18 months away, the Welsh cannot afford the angst and potential fallout defeat today would spawn.
Gatland’s frustration at Scotland’s refusal to agree to the stadium roof being closed in the event of bad weather was based on his belief – or fear – that they intend to counter his side’s open style with a policy of containment, citing as evidence the return of the excellent kicker Dan Parks at outhalf. The New Zealander wants his players to diversify, to keep opponents guessing and not to be afraid of winning ugly. A problem that cursed Gatland’s predecessors was there came a point when their message seemed to stop getting through and initial improvement belly-flopped into failure and a change of coach.
Today marks a true test for Wales’s players, who were discomfited by Gatland’s outburst after the defeat at Twickenham last weekend. The coach publicly admonished the secondrow Alun Wyn Jones, who was sent to the sin-bin for a trip on Dylan Hartley and watched England score 17 unanswered points in his absence.
Some in the media questioned Gatland’s judgment, though many also criticised the South Africa coach, Peter de Villiers, last summer when he spoke up for, rather than criticised, Schalk Burger, who gouged the Lions’ Luke Fitzgerald.
If the Wales players are indeed over-sensitive, then they have little chance of achieving Gatland’s aim of breaking into the top five of the world rankings. Jones, as he has acknowledged, fully merited the rebuke but Wales have for so long made coaches rather than players accountable for failure that they have failed to generate the mental toughness needed to build from one year to the next.
A home encounter with Scotland should provide the restorative that Wales need. The Scots have won only three times on the road out of 25 in the Six Nations, in Wales and Italy in 2002 and again in Rome four years ago. They have won only three of their last 15 championship matches.
In Andy Robinson, however, they have a canny, experienced coach well able to exploit any Welsh frailties. After opting for an attacking back division against France, knowing they would probably need to score at least one try to win, his changes this week are conservative. Wales, with James Hook in midfield, have an eye for the counter-attack but they are vulnerable when they are turned over, as England showed.
Robinson also has the most accurate goal-kicker in the world. Chris Paterson will win his 100th cap today and it is one month short of three years since he missed a kick in a tournament. Since that lapse against France in the 2007 Six Nations he has landed 51 out of 51, 17 in the last World Cup and 34 in the championship.
“We cannot afford to give away any silly penalties,” said Rob Howley, the Wales attack coach. There was a moment when Wales last faced Scotland in Cardiff, on their way to the 2008 Grand Slam, when they let an early lead slip after being caught too often playing from deep. Paterson kept kicking penalties and the steady Stephen Jones was brought on at outhalf to replace Hook, who has since started only one match for Wales in the position.
Euan Murray’s return will bolster Scotland’s scrum, which buckled under pressure last week, while his fellow Lion Gethin Jenkins is fit to sit on Wales’s bench. The Scots will miss another Lion, Nathan Hines, but they still have the capacity to make it difficult for Wales.
GuardianService
REPLACEMENTS: WALES: Huw Bennett (Ospreys), Gethin Jenkins, Bradley Davies, Sam Warburton, Richie Rees, Tom Shanklin (all Cardiff Blues), Andrew Bishop (Ospreys).
SCOTLAND: Scott Lawson (Gloucester), Allan Jacobsen (Edinburgh), Richie Gray (Glasgow), Alan MacDonald (Edinburgh), Mike Blair (Edinburgh), Phil Godman (Edinburgh), Max Evans (Glasgow).
Referee: George Clancy (Ireland).
Assistant referees: Alain Rolland and Peter Fitzgibbon (both Ireland).
