Armagh face exit by asphyxiation

This has all the hallmarks of an intriguing encounter

This has all the hallmarks of an intriguing encounter. Meath have been steamrolling opponents with a no-nonsense, tight-marking defence, a strong, reliable midfield and a forward unit well versed in creating space and scoring opportunities for one another.

Armagh, on the other hand, took the early rounds to find their feet before showing real character in coming through some tight finishes and then genuine class in comprehensively beating Down in the Ulster final - a win which proved them worthy contenders for the All-Ireland title.

At this stage of the competition it's unusual to see a team making radical changes, but Armagh were obviously unhappy with the all-round balance of their forward line.

They have two outstanding players in Diarmuid Marsden and Oisin McConville but must have felt they needed hard-working ball-winners to create opportunities for those two lethal finishers.

READ MORE

Yet the changes are themselves a bit of a gamble. The McEntee brothers are both intelligent footballers, but the pace and intensity of Meath may not suit their slow, methodical style. Bringing in former Louth player John Donaldson to midfield when he is best known as a wing back is another step into the unknown.

Meath's selection was expected. There is speculation that Tommy Dowd may play some part tomorrow, but assuming his back injury isn't fully recovered, he is a loss to Meath. They could always rely on Tommy to get the big score in dramatic circumstances when it was most needed. He was a rallying influence on the whole team. The same can't be said of Graham Geraghty and Ollie Murphy just yet. Graham is a bit enigmatic and unpredictable. He has the potential to produce outstanding displays but can also self-destruct.

Tactically both teams try to play similar games. Defensively, they produce huge workrates with forwards and midfielders working back to close down open space. Both tend to work the ball out of defence with short passes to midfield followed by long, kicked passes into forwards in open space.

One key to the outcome will be the respective full-back lines. Meath have been most impressive in this area and Armagh will find it very difficult to win clean possession from Mark O'Reilly, Darren Fay and Cormac Murphy whose motto seems to be `Thou shalt not win ball', never mind `Thou shalt not pass'.

Meath would seem to have an advantage over their counterparts in that the McNultys and Ger Reid wouldn't have the proven calibre of their opposite numbers. Both teams have match-winning forwards, but I believe Meath's full-back line will cope better than their opponents.

Interestingly, Marsden is placed in the half-forwards which would leave him free from the shackles of Darren Fay. His dynamic running and shooting may well benefit from the extra space. I believe McConville will be detailed to take Fay to places he won't relish and hope to leave openings in front of the Meath goal.

Marsden has the potential to be the best forward on view, but will he get adequate support? All the Meath backs are quick and work hard for each other, so time and space will be at a premium.

Midfield will be congested with four big men and a few others from the half-forward lines. Whoever wins the breaking ball will have a huge advantage and that will hinge on who's most committed to putting their bodies into the thick of it and taking hits to win the ball.

Meath are past masters at this with one of their smallest players, Paddy Reynolds, one of the best at winning breaks. He generally makes three or four runs in a match off the breaks and creates opportunities up the field.

Another vital question surrounds the impact of Trevor Giles. He orchestrates most of Meath's attacking moves and colleagues regard him as the main playmaker and are always looking to get him possession through short passes and he himself works hard to win ball.

He can kick 40 and 50-yard passes with either foot and that, combined with his footballing vision, creates opportunities for quick forwards like Geraghty and particularly Murphy, who is oozing confidence after two outstanding displays to date.

Kieran McGeeney will have a big decision to make tomorrow: should he man-mark Giles or hold the centre-back position. Jonathan McGee did the latter for Dublin and played a reasonable amount of ball, but Trevor had the freedom of the park to destroy Dublin with those telling passes.

I expect Jarlath Burns to play a largely defensive role in an effort to close down the space in the central area and allow McGeeney to limit Giles's effectiveness.

One of the main reasons why I favour Meath is that Ger Reid might be caught a bit for pace by Geraghty. I know people have been asking questions about Reid already this season and that he has survived but Geraghty is an explosive player. Reid is a good footballer and looked good against Down, but I think that had something to do with Ciaran McCabe bringing him out the field which suited him.

I don't think the standard in Ulster has been great lately and there has been a dip in standards since the three Ds - Down, Donegal and Derry - were winning All-Irelands. I was involved with Munster in the Railway Cup and felt Ulster weren't as potent a force as before.

Meath, playing down the road in familiar surroundings, should prove too much even for a well-prepared, competitive Armagh side supported by the most passionate following in the country.