Cycling Tour de FranceLance Armstrong would only laugh yesterday when it was suggested he had this race won three days before the much-feared time-trial to L'Alpe d'Huez, but few of his remaining rivals would disagree with Jan Ullrich's summary of Friday's and Saturday's Pyrenean stages: "This year Lance is unbeatable again."
Ivan Basso, the only man who could live with the Texan at Saturday's finish at Plateau de Beille, said: "There was nothing I could do." Francisco Mancebo of Spain was succinct: "The Tour will now be decided between Armstrong and Basso. The best anyone else can hope for is third." As for the current leader Thomas Voeckler, his collapse on Saturday showed he is unlikely to have the strength to hold on to the yellow jersey.
At the start of this Tour there was potential for Armstrong to be pushed at least as hard as he was in 2003. The course looked devised to favour his rivals, with no long individual time-trial before the mountains, and no chance for him to get more than a couple of minutes in hand in the team time-trial because of a change in the regulations.
Moreover, other heavyweight contenders had emerged alongside Ullrich, who had just won the Tour of Switzerland.
But yesterday, as the Tour prepared for its second rest day by speeding across southern France at 28 m.p.h., Armstrong's position could hardly have been stronger. Basso is the only man within two minutes of him, 77 seconds behind. Ullrich's team-mate Andreas Kloden and Illes Balears rider Mancebo are two minutes 56 seconds and three minutes six seconds adrift and the Austrian Georg Totschnig is almost six minutes in arrears.
None of that quartet has ever won a major tour race, and Ullrich is more than six minutes behind. Iban Mayo, the rider the American claimed would be the favourite at L'Alpe d'Huez, was barely able to follow the pace yesterday and is in 49th place.
Asked why Armstrong was in such a strong position, Basso's manager at the CSC team, Bjarne Riis, said cryptically: "There is no one reason. There is a host of small reasons, and they all add up to where he is now."
First, Armstrong has been faultless. So it should be, given the practice he has had in winning the race. His team has also been impeccable, and it may be their successful fight to keep his team-mate Pavel Padrnos in the race, despite his involvement in a drug inquiry, against the wishes of the organisers has forced US Postal to close ranks.
Perfection looks easy when there is no opposition. An editorial in the French sports daily L'Equipe on Saturday wailed: "What have they tried, Ullrich, Hamilton, Mayo, Heras and their team-mates, in the 2,200 kilometres which led to the Pyrenees? Nothing. As usual. On a daring course, anything looked possible. It was a waste of time."
Tyler Hamilton's demise came as a surprise, though, because he downplayed the severity of his tumble at Angers. A week ago he was saying he had fully recovered, and after his epic fight against pain on last year's Tour there was a feeling he was superhuman. Clearly he is not.
Mayo fell twice, at Wasquehal and Angers. His managers denied yesterday the pile-ups had affected him physically, claiming his problem was in his head rather than his legs. That seems unlikely. In addition, the effects of the daily mental effort of keeping upright in the first week's wind and rain are impossible to measure, as is the destabilising effect of losing a team-mate for failing a blood test.
For tiny climbers such as Hamilton, riding on the flat in the wet is stressful because they cannot see over the other riders: the entire day is spent riding blind.
Different riders are affected in different ways, but a longer run than usual to the mountains may have exacerbated any problems. Mentally and physically, Gilberto Simoni of Italy was in pieces in Brittany but compared with Heras and Hamilton he has done well to remain 11th.
Heras, on the other hand, twice a winner of the Tour of Spain, suffered less on the flat, crashing once, in the same pile-up as Armstrong en route to Angers. His only explanation for his failure in the Pyrenees was that "the entire team is going badly and we need to rethink our approach".
Ullrich's lack of form is relative, because he has not cracked but merely lost a little more time than in other Tours, but it is also mysterious given he had a largely trouble-free first week. One theory is the cold and wet in the opening week did not permit him to lose weight, as the heat he prefers might have.
The German blames a cold, but the explanation may be his usual lack of training over the winter. He fought to lose weight this spring, and in June, when Armstrong and Basso were honing their fitness, he was racing to get condition enough to compete in the Tour. Faced with a man who neglects no detail in winning, this was like pitting a Volvo against Michael Schumacher's Ferrari.
Guardian Service
Carcassonne - Nimes, 192.5 km
1 A Gonzalez Jimenez (Spa) Fassa Bortolo 4hrs 18mins 32secs, 2 N Jalabert (Fra) Phonak Hearing Systems at 0.25, 3 C Mengin (Fra) Fdjeux.com same time, 4 P Fedrigo (Fra) Credit Agricole at 0.29, 5 P Wrolich (Aut) Gerolsteiner at 0.31, 6 M Lotz (Ned) Rabobank, 7 I Gonzalez de Galdeano (Spa) Liberty Seguros same time, 8 S Botero (Col) T-Mobile Team at 0.37, 9 I Landaluze (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi at 0.41, 10 E Martinez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi at 0.43. Other: 91 M Scanlon (Ire) AG2R Prevoyance at 14.12.
OVERALL: 1 T Voeckler (Fra) Brioches La Boulangere 62hrs 33mins 11secs, 2 L Armstrong (US) US Postal p/b Berry Floor at 0.22secs, 3 I Basso (Ita) Team CSC at 1min 39secs, 4 A Kloden (Ger) T-Mobile Team at 3mins 18secs, 5 F Mancebo Perez (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto at 3.28, 6 G Totschnig (Aut) Gerolsteiner at 6.08, 7 J Azevedo (Por) US Postal p/b Berry Floor at 6.43, 8 J Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team at 7.01, 9 P Caucchioli (Ita) Alessio-Bianchi at 7.59, 10 S Casar (Fra) Fdjeux.com at 8.29.Other: 98 M Scanlon (Ire) at 1:20.51.
TEAMS: 1. T-Mobile 185:25:00 2. Team CSC 5:28 3. US Postal 11:20 4. Phonak 15:01 5. Brioches La Boulangere 17:21 6. Illes Balears Santander 28:36 7. Quick Step-Davbtamon 32:23 8. Euskaltel 34:21 9. Credit Agricole 40:27 10. Rabobank 51:55.
POINTS (green jersey) 1. R McEwen (Aus) Lotto-Domo 225 points 2. E Zabel (Ger) T-Mobile 212 3. T Hushovd (Nor) Credit Agricole 209 4. S O'Grady (Aus) Cofidis 198 5. D Hondo (Ger) Gerolsteiner 189.
KING OF THE MOUNTAINS (polkadot jersey) 1. R Virenque (Fra) Quick Step-Davitamon 128 2. C Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole 78 3. F Mancebo (Spa) Illes Balears 77 4. L Armstrong (US) US Postal 76 5. M Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 7.
YOUNG RIDER (white jersey) 1. T Voeckler (Fra) Brioches La Boulangere 62:33.11 2. S Casar (Fra) FDJeux.com 8.29 behind 3. V Karpets (Rus) Illes Balears 14.05 4. M Scarponi (Ita) Domina Vacanze 14.22 5. J Pineau (Fra) Brioches La Boulangere 14.48 6. S Chavanel (Fra) Brioches La Boulangere 15.09 7. M Rogers (Aus) Quick Step-Davitamon 18.08 8. I Camano (Spa) Euskaltel 20.31 9. M Astarloza (Spa) AG2R 49.15 10. B Noval Gonzalez (Spa) US Postal 1:07.15. Other: 15 M Scanlon (Ire) at 1:20.51.
As anticipated, Ireland's Mark Scanlon went on the attack on yesterday's flat stage from Carcassonne to Nimes, trying to get into a move which would stay away until the finish. The 23-year-old made several attempts at the beginning of the 192.5-kilometre leg, going clear with three others after eight kilometres and, after being reeled in, slipping away again as part of a 20-man group.
The breakaway opened up a decent lead but had only 10 kilometres of freedom before the attentive peloton hauled them back. With few opportunities left for the sprinters it proved difficult for any riders to break the elastic, but a successful break finally went clear at the 100-km point. These riders stayed clear to the finish, while Scanlon came home alongside Lance Armstrong, Ivan Basso and the other favourites 14 minutes and 12 seconds after stage winner Aitor Gonzalez(Fassa Bortolo).
On Saturday, the Sligoman, finishing 78th. He is 98th overall and looking ever more likely to finish his first Tour. The riders have a rest day today before three days in the Alps, including a time trial up Alpe d'Huez on Wednesday. Friday's rolling stage through the Jura region offers him another chance to attack. - Shane Stokes
