ON RUGBY:As we enter a World Cup year, the November Tests underlined that the Europeans have some catching up to do after the Tri-Nations beat the Six Nations 10-2, writes GERRY THORNLEY

NEXT YEAR is a World Cup year and everything will be judged in that context, even, a tad sadly, the Six Nations. The oldest international tournament in the world is still something worth crowing about, though a little less so in a World Cup year.

That’s the nature of four-yearly global showdowns in any sport.

The November internationals also underlined that the Europeans have some catching up to do after the Tri-Nations beat the Six Nations 10-2. They end the year, as usual, as the world’s top three sides. The All Blacks have made a break for the line, with the Wallabies very much leading the peleton.

1 New Zealand

Have they peaked too soon? Most probably not after the Tri-Nations and a Grand Slam tour in third gear, especially when Ali Williams and Israel Dagg, who could light up the tournament, are added to this most potent of mixes. The best Brains Trust and most talented squad, they’ve won 17 of their last 18 matches, yet the defeat to Australia in Hong Kong after taking off Dan Carter reminded everyone, particularly themselves, how dependent they are on him and Richie McCaw. Come a tense knock-out game the pressure to end 24 years of hurt on home soil, all the more so if the Wallabies or France turn up to spook them, could be too much. Can a country want something too much?

Odds (Paddy Power): 4/5. World Ranking: 1.

2 Australia

Losing the core of an enduring old guard after the last World Cup cycle, Robbie Deans has overseen a remarkable transition, with Will Genia and Quade Cooper taking over the Gregan-Larkham mantle. The key is whether the propping Bens, Robinson and Alexander, arrive fit and healthy. Then they have the strike moves, invention and cutting edge to beat any side, even a slightly spooked All Blacks. A great bet a year ago.

Odds: 4/1. World ranking: 2.

3 South Africa

The game has moved since their defensive, percentage kick game won in France. A potent old guard up front need to stay fit, they’ll be strengthened by the return of injured absentees, not least the world’s best scrumhalf in Ruan Pienaar, and Morne Steyn will kick his goals. But although World Cups tend to be won by gnarled and grizzled types, it would be slightly astonishing if Peter de Villiers guided the Boks to another crown. Probably too late to change tack now but a poor Tri-Nations will leave them in a mess.

Odds: 5/1. World ranking: 3.

4 France

Three defeats in five have been 40-pointers, culminating in that mortifying 59-16 embarrassment in Paris to Australia, yet still Marc Lièvremont survives. Not even Lièvremont seems to know his preferred Les Bleus after three years, much less a distinguishable brand of play. Talent galore means they’re always good for an inspired, one-off but no value in the betting, even at these odds.

Odds: 12/1. World ranking: 6.

5 England

The way Martin Johnson ignored the clarion call for celebrity players such as Danny Cipriani, Shane Geraghty and Ryan Lamb always hinted at substance. If anyone knows what a team dynamic needs it’s the 2003 World Cup winner. Incorporating the new breed of Courtney Lawes, Ben Youngs (the real deal), Chris Ashton and co in the flamboyant beating of Australia offered real hope. A question mark hangs over outhalf, but the Six Nations could confirm them as Europe’s darkest horses.

Odds: 12/1. World ranking: 4.

6 Wales

Lots of talent, lots of talk, lots of bold ambition, but they’ve effectively lost 13 of their last 18 Tests against frontline opponents save for Italy (twice), Scotland, Samoa and Argentina. The return of Jamie Roberts will help, as it would if Gavin Henson stopped dancing and started playing, but the suspicion lurks that Lee Byrne, Stephen Jones and Martyn Williams are past their best. Need a Six Nations rejuvenation.

Odds: 33/1. World ranking: 9.

7 Ireland

Lots of talent, and lots of ambition, but have lost six of their last 11 – the wins coming against Italy, England, Wales, Samoa and Argentina. Ireland’s game had to expand beyond the Grand Slam, but pool opponents Australia have progressed quicker. Scrum remains an issue, but emergence of Jonathon Sexton and Seán O’Brien, along with return of Jerry Flannery and Paul O’Connell, and the continuing good health of Brian O’Driscoll, offers hope. Could win Six Nations.

Odds: 33/1. World ranking: 5.

8 Argentina

Six wins in 18 Tests since the last World Cup, which always looked like a high for their golden generation despite of their structures rather than because of them. As Felipe Contepomi candidly admitted in the wake of their defeat to Ireland they’re way behind this point four years ago. The game has left their 2007 brand behind too. Short of class in the backs, yet come the World Cup the collective will amount to more than the sum of the individual parts.

Odds: 60/1. World ranking: 8.

9 Scotland

Well organised under Andy Robinson and defensively resolute, they kick their goals and can win occasional arm wrestles – witness their try-less wins over Australia, Argentina away and South Africa in the last 14 months, but almost as short as the Pumas for classy backs, witness two tries in last five games. Gotta find more.

Odds: 175/1. World ranking: 7.

10 Samoa

Man for man arguably the most talented rugby island/country on the planet. Much stronger November showing than before, defensively well organised and hugely committed, their average losing margin to Ireland, England and Scotland was under nine points. Innate running and offloading talent will shine at the World Cup when in with South Africa, Wales and Fiji. Rather the Welsh than us.

Odds: 400/1. World ranking: 11.

11 Italy

Same old, same old, really. Huge scrum and maul, the harmonising of indigenous talent into two “super” teams will help, and there are few brighter coaches than Nick Mallett. As Ireland’s first Six Nations and last World Cup pool opponents, the Azzurri will make for interesting viewing but November showed them still short at nine, 10 and 12.

Odds: 500/1. World ranking: 12.

12 Fiji

Arguably offers Samoa the argument for rugby talent per head of population, and Fiji stopped Italy and Wales from scoring tries in a narrow loss and draw. Alas, as concession of penalty tries in both games showed, set-pieces are an even bigger concern. In with South Africa, Wales and Samoa, and every bit as capable as Samoa of a one-off scalp.

Odds: 750/1. World ranking: 10.

“Come a tense knock-out game the pressure to end 24 years of hurt on home soil, all the more so if the Wallabies or France turn up to spook them, could be too much. Can a country want something too much?