There was the usual brave talk afterwards, but when the draw was made on Tuesday for the qualifying stages of the next World Cup, Mick McCarthy's apparent belief that fate has it in for him might well have been reinforced. It couldn't have turned out much worse for the Republic of Ireland manager: Germany or Spain would probably have represented as tough but no tougher a draw than Holland from among the top seeds. Of the second-ranking nations only the Italians stand out as having been obviously more threatening than the Portuguese.

It was, of course, a little too much to hope that the Republic would be dropped into a group with Belgium and Austria, but as it is McCarthy will be only too aware that his team start as longshots for a trip to Japan and Korea in three years' time.

Once again their chances would appear to depend on their coach's ability to steer them to second place in the group and then, for the first time in four attempts by the Republic, through the play-offs. The prospects don't look too great, but then the FAI are gambling that their man has learned enough from his first four years in charge to finally make the breakthrough. The rest of us can only stand by and hope they have called it right.

There's certainly little doubting just how central McCarthy's role is to the Republic's chances of making it through. Put simply, all the evidence points to the Dutch and Portuguese having better players than us just as it pointed to the Croatians and Yugoslavs having been stronger last time around, so tactically we have to outwit them, which is going to take a bit of doing.

McCarthy does deserve some credit for having led his team to second place in group eight in the recent European Championship qualifiers, but equally he has to take a good deal of the flak for allowing automatic qualification to slip away over the last three games.

In the play-offs Ireland lost out to a better team (just as they did to the Netherlands in 1995 and Belgium in '97) but then the fact is that, over the forthcoming 10-match programme, the former Ireland captain must demonstrate that he has uncovered a formula that enables the players available to him to beat better teams. If he fails then we can, at best, aspire to being the soft touches in the play-offs again and he, surely next time, must expect to return to club football.

The draw aside, things do look a little brighter this time around for the Yorkshire-born coach. In contrast to the aftermath of the defeat in Brussels when Andy Townsend and Ray Houghton both departed the international scene, only Tony Cascarino is certain to go this time and that, given McCarthy's weakness for handing him the most unpromising of roles, is really for the best. For Steve Staunton, Denis Irwin and Niall Quinn this will probably be the last time around the block at this level.

The selection options, on the other hand, will be sounder over the coming couple of years with half a dozen players, including Dean Kiely, Rory Delap and Steve Carr, along with the likes of Kevin Kilbane, Ian Harte and Matt Holland, all likely to become more established figures.

Things may be looking up too in the team's key area of weakness, central defence, where Richard Dunne, Paul Butler and Jason Gavin are all making progress, while admittedly still looking well short of being genuinely senior international class. And further down the line there are upwards of half a dozen youngsters, Stephen McPhail of Leeds easily the most prominent among them, who look capable of playing some sort of role in the coming campaign.

Still, it's worth remembering that the system of bringing young talent through at club level in Holland is probably stronger than anywhere else in Europe while the Portuguese FA's investment in their underage international programme has brought them phenomenal success over the past decade and so both of our main rivals may also have a decent youngster or two up their sleeves.

What is probably of more immediate importance to Ireland's prospects, though, is whether McCarthy has continued to learn as he has gone along. Having had no more than a moderately successful club management career at Millwall, the former Irish skipper's first World cup campaign is best forgotten.

It may have been an ageing team into which he was obliged to bring inexperienced youngsters but there was no excusing the dismal home performances against Iceland and Lithuania nor the lack of nerve shown in Skopje. In the end only an abysmal performance by Iceland's goalkeeper Krisjan Finnbogason in Reykjavik saved the Irish from a humiliating fourth place finish in the group.

In the more recent European campaign the home form was sorted out with Ireland the only side to take 12 points on their own turf. In fact, McCarthy actually looked to have turned things around sufficiently for the team to win the group before he decided to surrender all in Croatia and Macedonia.

Resting key players in Zagreb ahead of for the trip to Malta was little short of embarrassing, but even that miscalculation was topped by the errors made as he attempted to circle the wagons and defend a one-goal lead over a decidedly inferior Macedonia in Skopje. Once again we got what we deserved.

Overall the manager's record is decidedly average. In competitive outings he has won 10, drawn seven and lost five; but drop games against countries considered too weak to count for UEFA or FIFA second-place tables (those finishing fifth or sixth in qualification groups) and that becomes won five, drew seven and lost four. Hardly the stuff of legends but a good reflection of where we stand just now.

McCarthy, for all the abuse that has been hurled at him from certain sections of the media, is a long way from being the worst international manager around at the moment.

There are, for instance, probably only two of the current Irish squad who would make an England starting XI. Yet, in a far less tricky group than ours, England needed favours, luck and easier play-off opponents than ours to qualify for the European finals (although they're still capable of winning there, we're told).

But McCarthy has not shown himself so far to be much of a cut above the average. If Ireland are to make to the 2002 World Cup finals the bottom line is that he'll have to show that he is now.

Otherwise it could well come to pass that the McCarthy era is ended by the same two teams that so emphatically drew the curtain on Jack Charlton's era back in Lisbon and Liverpool.