Euro 2004 Qualifying Group NineSerbia & Montenegro v Wales Belgrade, 7.15Having a 100 per cent winning record in qualifying for Euro 2004, a feat only France have equalled in the whole of the continent, Wales need just one point more to ensure that they will be runners-up in Group Nine. The minimum they will then be guaranteed is a place in November's play-offs. Even in the Balkans, Wales can smell Portugal.
To the manager Mark Hughes, and throughout Wales, this situation is known as having one foot in the Algarve. Tonight's match with Serbia-Montenegro is Wales' fifth in their qualifying campaign - normally a time when players join fans and the press in saying: "There's no point".
Hughes is understandably wary of talking about the future but he has been prepared to admit over the past few days that what would have seemed a middling fixture when the draw was made is now pivotal. "The biggest game of my career," Hughes has called it.
Should Wales win, then it probably will justify that tag, though last October's 2-1 defeat of Italy in the Millennium Stadium will live long in the memory.
But victory tonight would mean that Hughes could savour his maths homework - Wales could go to the San Siro in 18 days, lose and still be top of the group by two points.
Two home fixtures after that, against Finland and Serbia-Montenegro again, and a Welsh win and a draw might be enough to win the group. Two victories and Italy could not catch Wales.
So the opportunities provided by a win are huge and historic. The match should have been played in early April but the assassination of the Serbian prime minister Zoran Djindjic meant a state of emergency in the former Yugoslavia and a UEFA postponement.
Unfortunately for Wales, Celtic's John Hartson is not with them due to injury, but then if the original date had been safe Speed would have been missing for the same reason. So would Robbie Savage along with Craig Bellamy, Mark Pembridge and Robert Page, who is on a yellow card tonight. Another would keep Page them out of the San Siro.
Hughes' opposite number Ilija Petkovic has had the bonus of PSV Eindhoven's Mateja Kezman returning for duty. Kezman should be partnered up front by Savo Milosevic, now with Celta Vigo, and other familiar faces are Dejan Stefanovic of Portsmouth and Goran Bunjevcevic of Tottenham. Wales will hope these established names feel they have no point to prove.
SERBIA & MONTENEGRO (possible, 4-4-2): Jevric; Cirkovic, Djordjevic, Stefanovic, Krstajic; Bunjevcevic, Stankovic, Vukic, Boskovic; Kezman, Milosevic.
WALES (probable, 4-4-2): Jones (Southampton); Delaney (Aston Villa), Page (Sheffield United), Gabbidon (Cardiff), Speed (Newcastle); Davies (Tottenham), Savage (Birmingham), Pembridge (Everton), Giggs (Man United); Bellamy (Newcastle), Blake (Wolves).
Referee: A Frisk (Sweden).
