Leinster Senior Cup Preview: It's always dangerous to make a prediction until the action gets under way and each school can be tested in the ultra-pressurised environment of the Leinster Senior Challenge Cup. Despite this, and a horrible draw, it looks like Belvedere College's cup to lose.
That's what they said about the All Blacks in the World Cup, and they duly went out and lost it in Cardiff. Belvedere must overcome some serious hurdles if they are to make the March 16th decider at what promises to be a buzzing RDS but with a monstrous pack led by hooker Tom Sexton and mazy fullback Michael Keating, a 10th title could be their destiny.
The other contenders must be chuckling to themselves but Belvo, Junior Cup winners in 2005, have earned the tag of pre-competition favourites.
The work done by head coach and former international lock Gabriel Fulcher comes under scrutiny tomorrow when they face a decent Terenure side in the tournament opener that doubles as the official unveiling of the new 2,500-capacity Donnybrook stand.
All the previous cup-winning captains have been invited, so no pressure, lads. If they get through this repeat of the 2005 Junior final then the best St Andrew's team in years awaits. After that comes either Clongowes or Blackrock in the last four.
Clongowes are adhering to the code of omerta more stringently than ever but they appear to be Belvedere's main threat. Led by prop Jack O'Connell, whose premature departure from last year's final left a significant void, they reportedly emptied their fellow Jesuit College in a friendly. The story goes that Belvedere were getting such a hammering that they threw on their proper team for the second half but were still beaten out the gate.
Regardless, there will be no hiding place come the semi-final on February 24th. That, of course, is assuming Blackrock (or Terenure) don't spoil the form. The 65-time winners have changed the coaching ticket, with Frank Macken now at the helm and the former Leinster hooker Peter Smith working the forwards.
This is supposedly a non-vintage Rock team, if such a thing exists, and they have reverted to an expansive style, in contrast to the other contenders, who traditionally play more conservative, percentage rugby come the knockout environment.
Clongowes, in particular, keep it rigidly tight and force the opposition into errors, which they then ruthlessly punish. Expect a colossal quarter-final battle.
On the other side of the draw CBC Monkstown, who also possess a gargantuan set of forwards, are poised to reach their first final since 1984. Shane Grannell, Michael Noone, Steve Boucher and co are complemented by a decent back line, where Gary Foley is the creator in chief.
The defending champions, St Michael's, are expected to provide a stern test in the last eight. There is a real chance of an upset here, especially with the defending champions' jewel in the crown at outhalf. This is Noel Reid's third year playing cup rugby and his place-kicking can kill off any team. The referee's interpretation of the breakdown will come under scrutiny come February 5th (again, assuming Pres Bray don't catch St Michael's in round one).
St Mary's should be waiting in the semi-final but Gonzaga, Kilkenny and Castleknock are all eyeing a giant-killing feat here.
By this stage you may have gathered that no overwhelming favourite exists. On paper, Belvedere, Clongowes and CBC look capable of winning it but Blackrock, Terenure, St Michael's and St Mary's are all out to wreck their best-laid plans.
And who knows? Especially after the 80 to 1 outsiders Kilkenny College shocked Blackrock last year. The suspicious punters will note the fact Clongowes have won the cup in 1978, 1988 and 1998 so the alignments are certainly coming together again.
After conducting a straw poll of those in the know, we are left none the wiser. Some say Belvo, others point to Clongowes, while CBC old boys have visions of 1976 when Declan Murphy's team beat Castleknock 3-0 to capture their solitary title.
If forced to visit the bookmakers, a Belvedere College v CBC Monkstown final looks like the best wager, with Belvo to win. Many will disagree but Belvedere are my tip for 2008.
