RUGBY:IT DOESN'T get any easier, this Heineken Cup; Leinster and Munster being obvious cases in point. Winners three times in the previous five years, their reward for being ranked first and third in Europe, and with top-tier seedings, has been to draw the French champions, the Magners league champions, the leading two in the Premiership and then, the pièce de résistance, the two nouveau-riche French teams lurking in the fourth tier.

Everybody has rolled up this season. All but two of the top 17 teams in the ERC rankings have qualified, along with those aforementioned upwardly mobile French teams, Racing Metro and Toulon, with their mega-rich backers.

Even leaving those two newcomers aside, you can make cases of varying plausibility for about another dozen in the betting. For example, the Premiership leaders and semi-finalists two years ago, London Irish, are 66 to 1. Toulouse, with the richest pedigree of them all, are 7 to 2 favourites, but that says more about their draw (with Wasps, the Glasgow Warriors and the Gwent Dragons) than their uninspiring form to date.

What’s more, only Leicester (15 to 2 second favourites) in 2002 have ever successfully retained the title. Thereafter, there are nine sides between 8 to 1 and 16 to 1 in the betting which adds to the feeling that the tournament has never looked so open.

The difficulties facing Munster and Leinster are the tournament’s gain. Admittedly, experience over the course and distance counts for plenty. In five of the last six years, the champions have been previous winners, while the exceptions, Leinster, had been knocking on the door for years.

History has also shown us that it helps if a team can obtain a home quarter-final. Nine of the last 11 champions fall into that category, though Munster and Leinster each bucked the trend two and three years ago.

Of the multiple winners, Wasps look the weakest of that group as well as the weakest of a much stronger English hand which otherwise features the current top four in the Premiership and the Tigers. Toulouse do not look any kind of value at 7 to 2, while the longer odds on Munster (and Leinster) reflect the difficulties they will face in even qualifying.

Ulster have the best draw of the Irish trio and look tempting at 7 to 1 to win their group. On top of losing Rocky Elsom a year ago, Leinster have since bade adieu to CJ van der Linde, Bernard Jackman and Malcolm O’Kelly, while also losing Stan Wright, John Fogarty, Kevin McLaughlin and Leo Cullen to injury, with only the latter due back any time soon. The net effect has been to leave them short of forward fire-power.

Likewise injuries to Paul O’Connell and Jerry Flannery for Munster, but were O’Connell to return for the last two rounds in January and if they are still alive when hosting London Irish on the last round in January, who would dare back against them?

The Ospreys lurk menacingly, even though Marty Holah and Jerry Collins especially have been struggling with the new laws at the breakdown. By contrast, the Cardiff Blues have hit the ground well and now have the kind of squad strength to sustain them over the long haul.

The expanded French knock-out phase domestically makes the notion of winning five successive cup ties domestically and in Europe “impossible” according to Guy Noves, who duly rested most of his front-liners for their domestic semi-final defeat to Perpignan. In the Heineken final they met a Biarritz side who didn’t even reach les barrages.

Clermont could conceivably prioritise Europe if push came to shove in this their centenary season, having removed what Joe Schmidt said wasn’t so much a monkey as a gorilla from their backs in finally laying their hands on their Holy Grail of an overdue Bouclier de Brennus.

Like the Ospreys, Northampton and Clermont represent those who’ve been knocking on the door in recent years. Each are studded with the kind of game-breakers one imagines any aspiring Euro champions would need under the revised laws. Clermont also have the squad strength and game for all conditions and days.

So, on the dubious premise that the semi-finalists might contain the likes of Toulouse, Munster, Northampton and Clermont, that the latter are 8 to 1 third favourites despite their brute of a draw perhaps also tells us much.