Logically, analytically, statistically, historically and most other ways you look at it, South Africa still have to be favourites to record a sixth successive win over Ireland tomorrow. Yet there's no denying that this seems like Ireland's best opportunity to emulate that sole win over the Springboks in 13 previous meetings 35 years ago. The air is so thick with opportunity that you can almost reach out and touch it.
After all, it was only three summers ago that the Springboks seemed to be playing in a different stratosphere when handsomely beating Ireland in both Tests. The following November, two years ago at Lansdowne Road, Ireland at least gave the Boks a good shake-up, and the main difference was Bobby Skinstad's explosive, game-breaking 10-minute cameo in the third quarter.
But all has changed, changed utterly since that day, when the Springboks were equalling the world record of 17 successive Test wins. The Springboks may take the field with as few as four of that starting line-up. Worryingly for them, their Super 12 and Tri-Nations form has left them a clear third in the Southern Hemisphere pecking order, indicating a sharp decline in their fortunes. Significantly, too, both Wales and England have beaten them in the last 18 months.
More pertinently perhaps, Ireland have improved dramatically in the last 10 months or so. Where two years ago Nick Mallett made the usual complimentary sounds about Irish pride and passion, the ball-winning capabilities of their pack, and their pressing, pressure game, he couldn't conceal his belief that Ireland didn't have the pace, explosiveness and game-breaking abilities to hurt South Africa, especially out wide.
As was the case that day, Ireland could huff and puff for a long time in the opposition 22 without troubling the scoreboard, at least not with tries. However, Ireland have at least added a few arrows to their quiver since those blunt-edged days.
Due to a greater willingness to move the ball quickly and improved recycling with the advent of Kieron Dawson, and with Brian O'Driscoll and a couple of in-form wingers in tandem, they might even have the edge out wide. Indeed, there would be a neat symmetry in the rejuvenated Denis Hickie becoming a redemptory match-winner, remembering how Stefan Terblanche scored four tries in the first Test three summers ago, and how his jaw was broken in the second Test. Interestingly, Harry Viljoen has rested winger Breyton Paulse, one of their three ever-presents and few successes in a difficult year, notably his six tries in eight Tests this season.
Their starting XV from a named squad of 22 will not be finalised until tomorrow. Word from their camp suggests this will be the only change to their starting line-up from the side which last Sunday accounted for Argentina - which, as a formguide, still makes the Springboks 15-point favourites.
Ironically, the Sprinbgoks may actually have more of a surprise element, given a new coach preaching a new doctrine with a newly converted outhalf. For Ireland, by contrast, this is the first real test of the Second Season Syndrome. They caught a few teams by surprise last season but to a degree they've now been sussed, as evidenced by Brendan Venter's analysis (see inside) on SARFU's official website.
It seems likely that they will target Keith Wood, Rob Henderson and Brian O'Driscoll as Ireland's likeliest target runners, while in the knowledge that Peter Stringer is essentially a conduit, also focusing on Ronan O'Gara. Admittedly it's one thing knowing it, and another thing stopping it. Defensively too, the Springboks will probably target Ireland's 10-12 axis, and endeavour to keep the ball off the ground and away from Dawson. While Ireland don't have a proven front-of-the-line jumper, South Africa probably have more height and power in the back five, with which to suck in the fringe defence. And it almost goes without saying that the unconvinced scrummaging cognoscenti will be watching John Hayes avidly.
Against all of that, there's a sound basis for believing that O'Gara can give Ireland a better kicking game. While the desire and possible benefits of getting the ball to O'Driscoll and the Irish wings are manifest, equally to fully exploit home advantage and a possible weakness when the ball is played in behind the South African wingers, it has to be a finely mixed concoction.
A not unreasonable premise, and held by one astute observer, is that each side creates about half a dozen chances. In which case the riddle will be solved by who takes them. The Springboks are a tad more proven in that regard - but not by much - and Ireland are getting there.
Ultimately, if Ireland have got too caught up in the notion of winning, they might not even produce a performance. That's the priority - a big performance - and if Ireland are within a score going into the final quarter, then who knows. Either way, it could well be a cracker.
