Bobby Robson's suggestion that 1-0 would be enough tonight will hardly keep the whingers happy. writes Brian Kerr
The 5-2 defeat away to Cyprus in match two has been like a black cloud hanging over our efforts to qualify. I'm well aware how tricky it can be to win there, from my own experience, and others in the group will vouch for that. Germany (draw) and Wales (lost 3-1) are prime examples.
But the beating they handed us was a resounding result for both countries. Their recent form would be considered a golden time for Cyprus. The fact that the coach Angelos Anastasiadis is still in his job since 2004, considering their notoriously critical and impatient soccer public, would indicate stability and confidence not previously part of their make-up.
But the reality remains that Cyprus will only finish ahead of San Marino in the group unless they can beat us, Germany or the Czechs in their final three games. That puts them in context.
Steve Staunton's men should be capable of a convincing victory. God knows they shouldn't lack motivation.
Regardless of what team Staunton picks, we should be in total control of the game. Our difficulty will be to break down a deep-lying Cypriot defence that is dependent on the breakaway raids of Ioannis Okkas, Stathis Aloneftis and Konstantinos Charalampidis. They will play for respectability, which means a draw.
With Lee Carsley and Richard Dunne out through suspension the manager must make some serious decisions as these two have become the heartbeat of Staunton's ever-changing teams.
The return of both John O'Shea and Paul McShane to the back four, unless O'Shea is accommodated in centre midfield as cover for Carsley, would be harsh on Joey O'Brien or Stephen Kelly after their performances on Saturday. We should see more of Kelly in an attacking role tonight as he has been pinned back in the previous three matches.
For midfield, Staunton suggested Darren Potter will replace Carsley as he is "the same" type of player.
Well, not exactly. I first saw Darren in Liverpool's under-17 academy team and discovered he had Irish roots. I immediately identified him as a player of genuine potential. I followed it up to get him involved.
His emergence was stunted by so many stars at Anfield - well, big-money buys anyway - but since moving to Wolves he has begun fulfilling that underage potential.
While not having Carsley's work-rate, tackling ability and physicality yet, he does possess a very good passing range, awareness and a decent pair of shooting boots.
For this game, a partnership with the in-form Andy Reid might be just the job.
Potter could be another player with the ability to survive at this level. Along with O'Brien and McShane, that would mean three new internationals are discovered in one campaign.
This all comes with a substantial warning flag. Many of the problems in Cyprus stemmed from a failure to select any defence-minded midfielders as Aiden McGeady, Stephen Ireland, Kevin Kilbane and Damien Duff do not possess the natural inclination to mind the house. This is where the Potter/Carsley comparison becomes shrouded in doubt.
Aiden McGeady and Stephen Hunt could be very useful tools for this game as their ability to beat their man is often the key to unlocking a mass defence.
Kevin Doyle and Robbie Keane will surely have more opportunity to make an impact in the penalty area, while proving they work as an efficient partnership going into the next campaign. This remains a serious concern.
That's my tuppence worth on the team selection but, as we have learned, the manager is capable of rolling out something different.
I wouldn't be so quick to criticise this. Like the media, opposition managers are also second-guessing themselves when it comes to the Ireland line-up. It's a decent trait to develop in the chess match that is modern international football, provided his teams do not defy logic.
No matter what starting XI Staunton decides upon, it should be good enough to establish a firm grip on the game, with lots of controlled possession.
It's crucial we maintain a high tempo with plenty of width, accurate passing and crosses. Although patience may be at a premium in the stands, it's vital the right attitude is shown on the pitch.
Only four, maybe five, players from the 13 that featured in Cyprus remain in the picture. The rest - Paddy Kenny, Andy O'Brien, Alan Lee and Clinton Morrison - have been discarded, while Damien Duff, Ireland and Dunne are hors de combat.
For the survivors, this represents a chance to directly address the defensive carelessness and complacency of that nightmare performance.
Revenge should be top of the list, followed closely by a desire to regain some respect.
Anything less than a 2-0 win would be a major disappointment. But I think we will surpass that.