Leinster Senior Cup Preview: Herculean performances, injuries, natural disasters and lightning strikes aside, Blackrock College look well primed to lift their 65th title.
That's what everyone said last year until Belvedere College produced a tactically masterful display in the final.
Hard nuts are these Belvo' boys - making the expected rehash of last year's decider at the semi-final stage on March 3rd the most keenly anticipated of meetings. The outstanding players in last season's competition should also be renewing acquaintances that day.
Luke Fitzgerald (Blackrock College) is the most exciting running back the competition has witnessed since Robert Kearney. Like Kearney, Fitzgerald is expected to have a bright future in the professional game and already draws obvious comparisons to the current Irish captain - although, that is the lot of every Blackrock player who shines at centre.
One esteemed member of the Leinster Branch fraternity described Belvedere prop Cian Healy as the most devastating ball carrying forward ever seen at schoolboy level. That's some compliment considering Victor Costello and Des Dillon have done some serious damage in their time. He's built like a prop but carries like a number eight. Forewarned doesn't necessarily mean forearmed.
So Belvo or Rock? Guess again. Simply because St Michael's, St Mary's or Clongowes from the top half will be waiting in the final. As the 2000 decider in particular proved, anything could happen on St Patrick's Day. That was when runaway favourites Terenure were caught cold by a Clongowes team with barely any representative players. So, it can happen.
This fate is unlikely to befall Blackrock in tomorrow's opener against Terenure, although Fitzgerald has been ruled out with a broken collarbone, sustained before Christmas, and is eyeing the quarter-finals on February 22nd for a return. At least Russian try machine Vasya Artemiev has recovered to line out at wing. Also, Terenure are not going to simply roll over.
Castleknock, led by returning Irish schools outhalf Brian Collins, have the ability to cause an upset as they aim to circumnavigate CBC Monkstown before meeting St Mary's/St Gerard's on February 19th. Whoever prevails will face the winners of Clongowes and St Michael's on Thursday March 2nd at Lansdowne Road.
St Michael's can make the breakthrough many believed they should have made last year and duly progress to the final. Blackrock sunk them with a first-half blitz in 2005 but they should fend off the relatively unknown Clongowes with talent like outhalf Andrew Cummiskey and a pack led by Tyrone McKillen.
If all those combinations and permutations come to pass, and that is unlikely, Blackrock will meet their feeder school until the 1970s in a straight fight for the spoils. Blackrock RFC player-coach Dave Dillon is part of the St Michael's set-up, while the school's Director of Rugby Greg McWilliams coaches the Blackrock under-20s. They have been to the final twice before, 1988 and 1991, losing both times to Clongowes. Parity with the elite cannot be claimed until they break their duck.
As Tony D'Amato (Al Pacino) said to Christina Pagniacci (Cameron Diaz) in the film Any Given Sunday when she tried to reminisce about her father and Tony winning a championship ring: "You got to win one firstjust win one."
Blackrock's David O'Connor to lift the Cup.
