Leinster Senior Cup: On paper it looks a perfectly balanced draw (how's that for an opening line?). The top six avoided each other in the opening round and the traditional heavyweights, Blackrock and Terenure, have relatively clear runs to the semi-finals, where the usual contenders should be waiting.
It just cannot be that simple.
The thing is, St Michael's look best-equipped to win this competition. Never mind the bookies; they make Blackrock favourites every year.
It must consume the St Michael's psyche that each season they are considered contenders, but they have yet to lay claim to the senior cup. Add defeats by a single score in three finals (1988, 1991 and 2006) and the motivation must simply be overwhelming for the Merrion Road school.
Ten players that featured in last year's St Patrick's Day defeat return - ably led by that robust centre Conor Cleary. They have a deadly finisher out wide in Patrick Brophy, a reliable place-kicker in Noel Reid, a hardened front five and two ferocious flankers in Patrick Mallon and Rajan Reilly.
One rival coach even stated on television recently it was their cup to lose.
Internal difficulties saw a midseason change in the St Michael's coaching structure, the long-serving Gary Coakley and Gavin Knaggs stepping aside.
But Greg McWilliams and Mark McDermott hardly represent a disruption to continuity or expertise, the latter having guided the Irish under-21s to the World Cup final in 2004.
The draw has been rather cruel. St Gerard's should be little more than a tough workout on Thursday, but Belvedere will bring a genuine threat in the last eight (without claiming to be clairvoyant, we have to call it as we see it - Belvo to beat St Andrew's on Monday).
Make it to the semi-final in Donnybrook (where the final also takes place, on Sunday, March 18th, put back a day because of Ireland v Italy in Rome) and Blackrock should be waiting - although the league champions, Gonzaga, will provide Rock with a stern test in tomorrow's opening match at Donnybrook.
The defending champions have seen a substantial turnover from last year's great team and have been ravaged by injury.
They also lost an unprecedented eight friendly games, though it all appears to be coming together at the right time with recent victories over St Munchin's, Christians of Cork and Methody (Belfast). They also beat St Michael's in the pre-Christmas friendly.
Plenty of fringe players from last year have returned. If not for the quality of the 2006 crop, Conor Crowley (a superb scrumhalf), James Ronan, Jan Simon-Byrne, Simon Schuster, James Leyden, Ian Madigan and captain Shane Rogers would have featured. The latter two were injured.
Madigan was actually the outhalf on the 2005 SCT that lost the final to Belvedere. He will be utilised from fullback as Darragh Fitzpatrick held the number 10 jersey last season and on the Leinster under-19s team.
Blackrock have a plethora of outstanding backs, but it's up front that the cup's destination will be decided, especially the back-row match-ups.
Three years ago, number eight Jason Harris Wright was the best player in the Junior Cup when Blackrock beat Presentation Bray in the final.
Harris Wright was the Pres captain, but his switch to Blackrock could provide the crucial levelling effect if the predicted semi-final materialises.
All this surmising is not intended to ignore the top half of the draw, where Clongowes appear to have the most potent blend, but whoever comes out of their quarter-final with St Mary's will probably have to contend with a powerful Terenure pack.
Full of brotherly love too as three sets of siblings are in that squad.
Sticking one's head on the block?
We predict a Clongowes versus Terenure and St Michael's versus Blackrock last four with Clongowes to succumb to the winners of the defining March 6th semi-final.
And then?
Okay, it's time to get off the fence.
Winners?
St Michael's for the first time or Blackrock for the 66th?
Tough call. St Michael's . . . no, wait, Blackrock by the slimmest of margins in what promises to be the tightest competition in a decade.
