CHELTENHAM:ESTIMATES OF up to €100 million floating around various betting markets in Ireland during the next four days only emphasise the need for a good start to Cheltenham 2008 and the number one horse in race one, Blue Bajan, could be the value bet to provide just that.
A total of 23 horses will line up for the Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices' Hurdle including seven from Ireland in a race that the raiders have won five times in the last seven years.
The quintet included a number of Irish horses that were filed in the banker folder but today's big field, and forecasts that seven or eight to one will be the favourite's price, shows how open it is this time. Cork All Star, twice a course winner, including when landing the bumper last year, brings some valuable experience to the party but other main hopes like Captain Cee Bee and Muirhead are relative unknown quantities.
Along with interesting outsiders like The Gloves Are Off, they guarantee a major Irish say again. But in the circumstances some each-way value looks the major requirement.
The major English hopes appear to be Khyber Kim and Rippling Ring but the latter lacks experience and the former disappointed on his last start.
A similar comment applies to Blue Bajan but that happened in the Totesport Trophy where the novice flopped behind some hardened handicappers.
Forgive him that, however, and Andy Turnell's horse brings winning hurdles form and a late-closing style that often pays off in this race.
Crucially, Blue Bajan also brings form from the flat that surpasses almost everything else.
Rated 111 after finishing runner-up to Maraahel in a Chester Group Three last year, and a City And Suburban winner at Epsom, Blue Bajan brings a level of class that at general 20 to 1 odds looks pretty appealing.
Noland is as close to banker material as there will be for many this week in the Irish Independent Arkle Trophy and Ruby Walsh has nominated the 2006 Supreme winner as his best mount for the four days.
The fact that Noland is in such a category after just two starts over fences reflects the class that saw him beat Sublimity and Straw Bear around here two years ago. However, that very inexperience will also make some punters wary of trading at short odds.
Despite falling last time, Clopf's jumping could be a strong point while Thyne Again is open to any amount of improvement.
The trip is a slight worry for Liam Burke's horse, who may appreciate further and instead it could be Mahogany Blaze who possesses the better combination of experience, technique and a front-running style that hopefully will keep him out of trouble.
A lot of preparation goes into any Cheltenham victory but it is tempting to view a study of the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Hurdle as something that can be boiled down to the last nine days.
Tom Cooper's River Liane burst to the forefront of the betting with a hugely impressive Leopardstown win and the form of that has been boosted since.
However, just three days ago Ashkazar looked to trump those credentials with an Imperial Cup win that oozed class.
David Pipe's runner is on a £75,000 bonus if he wins this week and although he has topweight, the conditions all look to be in his favour.
Both horses are ex-French and it's fair to say that River Liane wasn't in the same league as the former Aga Khan-owned horse who ran in a Group One last summer.
Better luck for the Irish looks likely in the Cross-Country Chase where Wonderkid can repeat his course win last December and defy Enda Bolger's powerful trio.
BRIAN O'CONNOR'S TIPS
2.00: Blue Bajan (dbl)
2.35: Mahogany Blaze
3.15: Sizing Europe (Nap)
4.00: Monkerhostin
4.40: Wonderkid
5.20: Ashkazar
