RUGBY ANALYST:Northampton lack the creativity inside to maximise their skill set
SEVENTY ONE minutes into last week’s Aviva Premiership semi-final and Leicester’s monster winger Alesana Tuilagi ran over 35-year-old Northampton winger and former All Black Bruce Reihana for the winning score. This moment in time has two massive stories to tell.
To that point Northampton not playing particularly well were behind by just six points to three. In fact almost an hour of ‘brutal’ rugby went by with the score board stuck on 3-3. In that time Leicester dominated save the scrum every aspect of their home fixture but couldn’t eke out the scoring gaps. What was taking them so long?
Last year in Thomond Park Romain Poite binned Paul O’Connell as Northampton had an attacking scrum five metres out. Munster’s scrum had been pummelled. This time with seven men Munster drove the Saints backwards and the siege was lifted. Northampton learnt from Munster in that moment what it takes to win cup matches. Leicester experienced that new found Northampton dog last week. Leinster will tomorrow.
Secondly on Tuilagi touching down Sky commentator Stuart Barnes lamented the weak effort from the aging Reihana but the story of Leicester’s breakthrough and Leinster’s opportunity tomorrow came much earlier in the play. Not unlike Wayne Barnes’ terrible miss of outside centre Manu Tuilagi haymaker, Barnes failed to spot the real weakness in this Northampton side which wasn’t Reihana.
With a score between them and away from home, Northampton began to force a breakthrough and Ben Foden, their saviour set off over the halfway line, down the tram tracks and as the Leicester cover forced him into touch he pulled one of his hit and hope passes we’ve seen all season for both club and country. Further down the food chain this looks mighty but against Leicester and Leinster this will be punished.
The ball fell to Leicester centre Anthony Allen who offloaded to hooker George Chuter who for 70 minutes had battered on the gainline, this time his offload was majestic. Barnes missed Chris Ashton’s pathetic attempt for the intercept from Allen; Ashton missed it and was lost in no man’s land. Both Foden and Ashton were nowhere as Tuilagi hammered over poor old Reihana.
Leinster beat Leicester; Leicester beat Northampton; Therefore Leinster will beat Northampton. This unfortunately is a lazy conclusion based on assumption. But before I go any further I must make one massive assumption. Northampton tailored their game plan last week to meet the challenges of facing Leicester in the Aviva Premiership semi-final. Tomorrow Northampton face an altogether greater challenge and therefore will adjust accordingly; I assume!
For instance outside centre Jon Clarke is teak tough in defence but does close the door on the opposition attack. Okay against Leicester but a dangerous ploy against Leinster who possess the hands to exploit the space he leaves behind.
For 71 minutes Northampton battled like their lives depended on it and were within touching distance of an upset. Leinster will face an unbelievable battle tomorrow that will punish them in many facets but Northampton are lacking in many areas and for all their running both Foden and Ashton are luxuries. Primarily because their team lack the creativity inside to maximise their skill set forcing them into wild, loose ‘Foden’ passes.
They do have serious strengths which have been much discussed by the media to date particularly their scrum (enough said). In summary their front three and their back three are where they lie. In between them lie players such as Courtney Lawes. Keep a very close eye on him, at 6ft 7ins and 104kg he’s both athletic and powerful. Although lighter he’s as close to the great Malcolm O’Kelly as I’ve seen and certainly covers the ground like O’Kelly could. Watch him tackle.
Leinster will be worried about his lineout but against Leicester last week interesting stats abound. Of the 20 Northampton lineouts 13 were thrown his way. But only six (30 per cent) were thrown to him as amazingly he was a decoy, lifting in seven. Why?
Saints lineout stats at 90 per cent winning looks good but Hartley’s suspect throw will damage them. Lawes moved around the lineout but whenever he received the ball towards the middle or tail it was always off the top and scrumhalf Lee Dickson found the midfield immediately. Early warning Leinster!
Their creativity stems from the tail of the lineout where they’ll try to get Ashton involved, not by directly targeting him but first hitting centre James Downey or a loose forward running back to the tail and then popping to the trailing Ashton. Alternatively Downey will carry it to the line. Either way you want a Leinster backrow who are totally assured of their defensive role in ever evolving traffic.
Unusually, considering Foden’s potency, they opt for same way rugby rarely going for the rewind. Although bloody hard workers their backrow don’t have the power to create space nullifying the scrum advantage and considering their lack of oomph I’m surprised with the Saints breakdown technique.
They just don’t compete in sufficient numbers, especially when supporting the ball carrier. Instead when in possession they’re hungry for the offload where Leicester proved last week that when hungry for the ball at the breakdown that is what you will get. Leinster will follow suit as Saints sacrifice vital seconds waiting for the pass when the ruck needs to be won.
I expect Leinster to balance Cup rugby with their natural style and Jonny Sexton is really growing into this role. They are no longer a slave to the ‘beautiful’ game. The Leinster backrow which I stated last week and still believe should have Shane Jennings in it from the start will definitely target inside outhalf Stephen Myler. Leinster’s multiphase play will begin to find fruit in the Saints fringe defence beyond six phases as their defensive line speed slows abruptly.
Under no circumstances should anyone in their right mind carry the ball into Downey. Last week Tuilagi bounced him off but Downey recovered immediately and pulled him down, extraordinary. He’s a big game player and there’s not one Leinster player who will gain ground on him.
How Leinster manage Lawes in the lineout will be intriguing. The temptation is to avoid him, but that’ll affect the subsequent tactical flow. From short lineouts regardless of the Leinster set-up Lawes will be at the tail with tighthead Brian Mujati locked on behind him John Hayes-style. Openside Phil Dowson forms the scrumhalf defensive line with Myler outside him. A very aggressive flat line from Sexton or Gordon D’Arcy’s feet can beat this set-up.
The manner in which the Saints battled without the ball last week against Leicester has me worried but Leinster’s creativity, multi-phase and ferocious breakdown has me unworried! For all the brilliance of Leinster’s back play tomorrow’s match is set up for Seán O’Brien at six, man of the match.
Last week I highlighted the team’s needs over the individual and suggested Fergus McFadden team contribution far outweighs Luke Fitzgerald momentary brilliance. McFadden should start for what should make a cracking encounter, Leinster Abu!
* Finally as a former member of the 2nd Cavalry Squadron Presidential Escort of Honour who has found himself at the end of a red carpet waiting for a head of state disembarking their plane, Honda Deauville motor bike at the ready to escort the party off to Áras an Uachtaráin and further back as a former Cadet from the 68th Cadet Class who once stood on the high wall of the Garden of Remembrance I must say how emotional and proud I was to witness the majestic professionalism of the Irish Defence Forces this week.
There was also a six-month period where I found myself in the Brigade Training Centre, 2 Eastern Brigade. As the Queen of England sat with our Taoiseach under the portrait of the big fellow Michael Collins the memories flowed back as it was in his house behind the walls of Cathal Brugha Barracks where my office lay.
