Rugby Under-21 World Cup: Such is the narrow margin for error in the Under-21 World Cup that in their second match of the competition Ireland effectively face the point of no return.
Plaudits for their opening effort against the defending champions, South Africa, are all well and good, but to retain any hope of reaching the semi-finals Ireland must beat Scotland at Newbury (5.0) today.
Indeed, so unhelpful were the other results in the first round of games last Friday - when all the six winners picked up bonus points - that Ireland will likely need four tries and the resultant bonus point today.
The format for the tournament is somewhat complex, the teams from Pool A playing those in Pool D, and those in Pool B playing those in Pool C. The top two from the A/D side of the draw progress to the semi-finals with the top two from the B/C side.
South Africa are favourites to head Pools A and D, and as expected Argentina and Wales (who meet today) have emerged as Ireland's main rivals for the coveted second place - with the powerful Australian, New Zealand, French and English sides all in the other half of the draw.
Scotland will still entertain hopes of progressing, despite their 37-19 defeat to Wales on the opening day, all the more so as they have the pool whipping boys, Canada, in their final outing. According to Irish manager Davy Haslett, that scoreline flattered the Welsh.
"The Scots have improved significantly at under-21 level this season, and they have quite a big pack as well as physical backs. We've watched their game on video and they had about 60 per cent of the possession but conceded 14 points in long-range, breakaway tries."
Unfortunately for the Scots, and indeed for Ireland, the second intercept try came with the last play of the game and earned Wales a bonus point.
With Argentina and Wales already on five points, were either of them to win and pick up a bonus point, then a four-point haul in Newbury today would be insufficient for Ireland.
"If we want to get to the semi-finals we have to win, and probably with a bonus point. It's as simple as that," admits Haslett.
On the evidence of the sides' unexceptional Six Nations opener in Dundee last February - when an injury-time try sealed a 13-5 win for Ireland - that would seem a tall enough order, though clearly both sides were rusty that day.
Curiously too, Michael Bradley, Haslett and assistant coach Mark McDermott have decided to omit the game-breaking qualities of Tommy Bowe for the more solid full back virtues of Peter O'Brien. Less surprisingly, having opted for a big back row against South Africa, they have rejigged the back row to accommodate the return of Niall Ronan, an out-and-out openside, to counter the Scots' traditional running and rucking game.
Captain Stephen Keogh moves from number eight to blindside and Ciaran Potts from openside to eight as Ireland retain seven of the side that beat Scotland in February, while the Scots have nine of their starting line-up from that night.
Conditions this time, with temperatures in the mid-20s, are eminently more suited to expansive rugby as well.
"It's going to be tough, but we've played Scotland in Scotland and we know we can win," said Haslett. "If we can play the way we did against South Africa for over 90 per cent of the game, in terms of what we did in set-pieces, rucking and retaining the ball, and eliminate some of the very basic mistakes, I am confident we can win."
IRELAND: P O'Brien (UCC); K Matthews (UL Bohs), B Murphy (UL Bohs), G Telford (Instonians), J Hearty (Blackrock College); M Rainey (Glasgow Hawks), F O'Loughlin (Shannon); J Moran (UCD), R Best (Belfast Harlequins), D Fitzpatrick (Belfast Harlequins), D Gannon (UCD), N McComb (Dundee High School), S Keogh (UCC, capt), C Potts (St Mary's), N Ronan (Lansdowne). Replacements: K Corrigan (UCD), E McGovern (Old Crescent), S Crawford (UCD), J Muldoon (Galwegians), C O'Loughlin (Buccaneers), D McAllister (Terenure College), R Lane (UCC).
SCOTLAND: G Morton; N Walker, G Morrison, P Godman, A Turnbull; A Warnock, M McMillan; J Malakoty, J Henry, A Dickinson, A Strokosch, M Rennie, S Swindall, A Hogg (capt), K Browne. Replacements: F Thomson, G Mories, S Mace, T MacCormick, B McKercher, T Philip, C Shaw.
Results so far
South Africa 36, Ireland 27
Argentina 62, Canada 13
Scotland 19, Wales 37
Australia 52, England 22
France 34, Italy 7
New Zealand 61, Japan 14.
Today's fixtures: South Africa v Canada, Henley (3.0); Argentina v Wales, Iffley Road (3.0); Scotland v Ireland, Newbury (5.0); Australia v Italy, Henley (7.0); France v New Zealand, Iffley Road (7.0); Japan v England, Newbury (7.30).
POOLS A and D TEAM MATCHES
P W L + - Bon Tot
Argentina 1 1 0 0 62 13 1 5
Wales 1 1 0 0 37 19 1 5
South Africa 1 1 0 0 36 27 1 5
Ireland 1 0 0 1 27 36 0 0
Scotland 1 0 0 1 19 37 0 0
Canada 1 0 0 1 13 62 0 0
POOLS B and C TEAM MATCHES
P W L + - Bon Tot
New Zealand 1 1 0 0 61 14 1 5
Australia 1 1 0 0 52 22 1 5
France 1 1 0 0 34 7 1 5
Italy 1 0 0 1 7 34 0 0
England 1 0 0 1 22 52 0 0
Japan 1 0 0 1 14 61 0 0
Key: W = Won (4pts) D = Drawn (2pts) L = Lost (0pts) + = points for - = points against Bon = bonus points (awarded to teams scoring 4 tries or more and teams losing by 7 points or fewer) Tot = total points.
