Champions Hurdle Preview: Colm Murphy's decision to ignore his better judgment can receive the ultimate vindication on the opening day of the 2006 Cheltenham festival with Brave Inca coming out on top in the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle.

A total of five Irish-trained horses line up for hurdling's crown including Hardy Eustace who will attempt to become just the sixth horse to win the race three times in a row.

Throw in the top-flight trio of Macs Joy, Al Eile and Asian Maze, multiple Grade One winners all, and Ireland's chances of landing the opening-day highlight yet again appear to be exceptionally good.

Despite that, however, it is still hard to escape the conclusion that the race principally revolves around the long-time favourite Brave Inca who will have Tony McCoy on his back and Colm Murphy impassively watching from the stands.

As befits a man who graduated in accountancy from Waterford Institute of Technology, Murphy is not one for the extravagant gesture. Cool calculation rather than yahooing flamboyance is normally more his style, although there was some notable air-punching when Brave Inca landed the Supreme here two years ago.

Part of that was no doubt a result of relief. Like today, Brave Inca was something of an Irish banker and carried the pressurised tag of favourite. But there were other more personal reasons.

Murphy's family near Gorey in Co Wexford has always dabbled with horses and he himself rode in point-to-points while studying in college. One thing he was sure of, though, was that training was not an option. A couple of years as a work rider, slash secretary at Aidan O'Brien's only confirmed his instincts.

"It's very hard work for what you get out of it," he said once.

Except by then logic had lost the battle against instinct. Horses and training won out over number-crunching.

Since then Brave Inca, and his sidelined stable companion Feathard Lady, have confirmed Murphy's ability to strike at the top level but Brave Inca's agonising third in last year's Champion only emphasised how hard it is to win in the race that counts most.

The most obvious difference this time is in the saddle. McCoy has been beaten just once on the horse and he does seem to be the ideal jockey to ignite Brave Inca's rather indolent competitive instincts.

But there is also no doubting the fact that the champion jockey is on a better horse this season.

"He was a first-season novice last year and he has got a lot stronger this time round," acknowledges Murphy who has carefully plotted Brave Inca's return to Cheltenham.

Hardy Eustace has two necks in hand from last year but while Brave Inca has had a trouble-free run to the festival, the title-holder picked up a virus in the AIG and has had far from an ideal prep. As Murphy found out last year, championships can be decided on such tiny margins.

The evidence of that AIG also suggested that Brave Inca and Macs Joy could have gone around Leopardstown again without the latter getting past his rival while the formbook indicates both Al Eile and Asian Maze have ground to make up, especially if the going dries out further.

Blind jingoism tends to bite back with a vengeance but even so it is hard to see how the home team are going to get to grips with Brave Inca either.

Arcalis is the shortest of them in the betting but he is very much in the Hardy Eustace boat, having been pulled up in his last race.

Both Penzance and Faasel are five-year-olds and that age bracket usually struggle in this race even in a sub-standard season, 2006 is far from that.

One of the cross-channel team might prevent a clean sweep like last year when the first five home were Irish but the business end still looks like being an Irish gig.

Hardy Eustace always comes to the fore on the big stage and if back to his best will again set the standard.

But Brave Inca now looks set to elbow the old champ aside. It probably won't be by far because that's not his style. But no doubt Murphy will have totted the figures and reminded him that one length is as good as 20.

Brian O'Connor's

Forecasts

Champion Hurdle

1. Brave Inca

2. Macs Joy

3. Hardy Eustace

Rest of card

2.00: Blueberry Boy

2.35: Missed That (Nap)

4.00: Moulin Riche

4.40: Good Step

5.20: Rosecliff

Nap and Double

Missed That and Brave Inca