Bulk of evidence points to Cork

GAELIC GAMES/All-Ireland SH final Cork v Kilkenny: This is all about history, and despite the bravado history counts

GAELIC GAMES/All-Ireland SH final Cork v Kilkenny: This is all about history, and despite the bravado history counts. Tomorrow afternoon's Guinness All-Ireland hurling final is the 21st between Cork and Kilkenny, by far the most common pairing at the ultimate stage of the championship.

Both counties say the prospect of Cork's three-in-a-row is having no disruptive effect on their focus for this year's final.

Two years ago they said the same about Kilkenny's potential three-in-a-row and the then battle for the top of hurling's roll of honour. But it seemed to matter more, certainly to Cork, once the match was over.

Big-picture history tells us that favourites have a jittery record in this fixture; four of their last six meetings have gone in favour of the outsiders, however marginal.

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That of course is because of history.

Neither Cork nor Kilkenny will take the field in an All-Ireland final against each other feeling any doubt or self-effacement, so whereas there may be pressure on the favourites, there is no compensating diffidence on the part of the opposition.

Little-picture history is the form of the teams and what they have achieved in this and recent seasons.

On that basis Cork deserve to be favourites. They have - to understate - a settled team that has demonstrated a proven ability to survive and win despite serious challenges, including especially deadly ones that hadn't been foreseen.

A year ago they stuttered at times in defence of the All-Ireland but just as they presented a tempting target for a buoyant Galway side, Cork summoned up their best performance of the championship in the final.

The mental strength to respond to crisis has its most obvious genesis in two events: the players' strike of 2002, which bonded the team and gave it impetus, and the Munster final defeat by Waterford two years later, which forced the team and management together in self-examination and redoubled determination to win the MacCarthy Cup in justification of their revolution.

On the field the familiar strengths remain: a goalkeeper who is a playmaker on top of his manifest abilities in all conventional aspects of the position; an exceptional half back line, powerful and unflappable; 400-metre runners who can hurl at centrefield; unyielding and physical challengers in the half forwards, built not to be prolific but to stop opponents doing what the Cork half backs do; and a blend of guile and physique on the inside line that Kilkenny were unable to control two years ago.

Were it not for who they are, Kilkenny wouldn't be exciting all the apprehension and knowing nods that have been increasingly common this week.

More reliant for scores on one forward than any county except Tipperary, the Leinster champions have, however, uncovered an exciting new centrefield partnership with the switch of James "Cha" Fitzpatrick to accompany Derek Lyng.

But the team's defence is under enormous pressure through injury.

At times during the summer the backs have looked vulnerable and unsettled. Two of the three who have looked most comfortable, JJ Delaney and John Tennyson, fell victim to injury.

Delaney, hurler of the year in 2003 and very nearly again 12 months later, is out whereas Tennyson's problematic shoulder has just recovered from its most recent dislocation.

In consequence the defence is getting its first airing as a collective in an All-Ireland final.

The county's exceptionally productive development system continues to produce exceptionally promising young hurlers but integrating them into senior level is never easy even without misfortune complicating the job.

Kilkenny will need to knit together with extraordinary speed, retaining the positives of Henry Shefflin's majestic form, Fitzpatrick's class at centrefield and Tommy Walsh's ability to perform miracles wherever the need arises in defence - and getting improved contributions from others.

Nonetheless, Cork have a right to be jumpy about the final. You have to go all the way back to the most recent three-in-a-row, theirs, in 1978 to find the last time they overcame the burden of favouritism to beat Kilkenny in a final.

Then there is the danger of what happened to Kilkenny in 2004, when after a summer of stumbling rather than sweeping past opponents, they looked tired in the face of Cork's hunger and desire to win.

If Shefflin starts well it will spell trouble for the champions because he rarely if ever has big matches that Kilkenny lose.

So for all the doubts about Kilkenny this match is still open for whichever team has the mental strength to impose themselves on it. In that regard Cork have a clear advantage.

The champions have more leadership figures on the field, players who have a track record of rising to the occasion when the team is under pressure.

Kilkenny have played some good hurling this summer but haven't yet stared into the abyss in the manner that Cork - three of whose last four All-Ireland matches have been won by a point - routinely have.

Last year Cork left the best until last and the feeling here is that they will once more. Further history in the making.